tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-72227224761222482582024-03-13T20:10:19.602+01:00The Contrarian ProgressiveI know what I know.
Somehow, what I see is different from what other people see.Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.comBlogger391125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-32738806319180888762019-10-13T23:47:00.001+02:002019-10-14T08:40:07.826+02:00Brexit: What is Boris Doing?Boris had a simple plan.<br />
<br />
(I will call him Boris from now on as this is the persona he created, his family apparently calls him Al, short for Alexander).<br />
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He wanted to be the PM one day all his life and after Theresa May was pushed out, he knew he would get the job because Tory members loved him for his quirky personality and funny haircut.<br />
<br />
And the fact that he was massively underqualified. That's a plus in England if you come from the right class background. Eton and Oxbridge.<br />
<br />
Notice I said England.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
But to make the position permanent he needed to win elections. So his plan was simple. Pretend like you are prone to do something destructive and let others to stop you from doing a Cleavon Little.</div>
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His first move was to announce that he would rather be dead in a ditch than to ask for an extension.<br />
<br />
Then he double dared Jeremy Corbyn to agree to a pre-Brexit election with the goal of winning it by out-Faraging Nigel Farage and targeting Corbyn as a closeted Remainer.</div>
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<div>
The proper response to this ploy was to pass the Benn Act and let Boris go through the humiliation to ask for an extension. That didn't sit well with him.</div>
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<div>
When he leaked his intention to crash out of the EU regardless of Benn Act things unraveled a bit. People started talking about the need for a caretaker government again. Because he couldn't be trusted.<br />
<br />
That was stupid because Boris would never go for no-deal Brexit for two reasons.<br />
<br />
One that's complicated and he has an even smaller brain than Trump (OK no one has a smaller brain than Trump but you get the point) and he wouldn't want to deal with <i>that</i>.<br />
<br />
And two, his legacy would be terrible if that happened. Can you imagine Al, sorry Boris, being known forever be the guy who destroyed the British economy.<br />
<br />
Farage isn't posh enough to care about any of that, especially after a couple, well, make that five pints.<br />
<br />
Al would. So would his alter-ego Boris.<br />
<br />
But he had no other plan.<br />
<br />
He kept sending smoke signals about his intention to burn the place down using Uncle Duke as his main conduit. With court rulings and stuff, it got to a point where people started thinking about a unity government to avert a disaster.<br />
<br />
All of this predicated on the assumption that the EU would like a deal with the UK and would give in just enough for Boris to claim victory.<br />
<br />
Well, they called on his bluff and Macron made it clear he no longer wanted the UK in EU. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49970267">Nor did Merkel</a>.<br />
<br />
Humiliatingly (something no UK media outlet picked up on) he was given a deadline until the end of this week to show that he was serious about a deal or he would be given no extension.<br />
<br />
Tellingly, Boris complied. He did a U-turn on his biggest redline which was the backstop. Well, we are not sure about the actual content but the leaks made it sound like he was ready to agree to let the entire Ireland island to stay within the customs union.<br />
<br />
I don't understand why media outlets are so gullible. Let's think about it rationally.<br />
<br />
The man wants to be a PM. That's a given.<br />
<br />
If he signs on a deal that is way worse that Theresa May's doomed agreements he stands no chance to win any elections as Nigel will grab most of the Leave votes.<br />
<br />
On the Remain side there is no room. So all he can do is to pretend that he is negotiating and giving up a lot only to reveal at the end that the EU was so amazingly unreasonable and unyielding no deal was possible before the next European Council.<br />
<br />
Once the blame game completed, he would ask for an extension as per the Benn Act. He will do so with a pained expression while posing for Murdoch tabloids with "Surrender Act" banners in the background.<br />
<br />
And he will call elections and campaign as the hardest Brexiteers that ever was.<br />
<br />
If it works, he will come back as a very reasonable man and he might opt for Remain arguing that he might get a better deal from inside.<br />
<br />
Remember, he wants to be the PM.<br />
<br />
If it doesn't, well that's too bad for the UK, isn't it?</div>
Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-12224331046841658862019-09-03T00:03:00.002+02:002019-09-04T10:22:21.690+02:00Boris Johnson's Real Game of Chicken<a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2019/07/brexit-will-uk-leave-eu.html">After my last contrarian post</a> where I maintained that the UK will stay in the European Union because it faces a binary choice between no-deal Brexit and Remain, I received a lot of pushback from friends.<br />
<br />
Boris Johnson is a hardcore Brexiteer, they said. Plus his entire cabinet is made up of people who prefer a no-deal Brexit, they suggested. They diligently directed me to articles that suggested that faced with a determined no-deal Brexiteer, <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/30/eu-wants-extend-article-50-avoid-no-deal-brexit-eurosceptics/">Europe was having second thoughts.</a><br />
<br />
Color me unimpressed.<br />
<br />
I get that Boris Johnson is telling his supporters that if he could convince Brussels that he is serious about a no-deal Brexit they would give in to his demands.<br />
<br />
What I don't understand is how he could succeed.<br />
<br />
As the <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/in-game-of-brexit-chicken-boris-johnson-driving-a-mini-brussels-is-driving-a-bus-1.3986256">Irish Times put it</a> succinctly "in game of Brexit chicken, Boris Johnson driving a Mini, Brussels is driving a bus."<br />
<br />
I would have gone with a scooter and a Humvee respectively, but you get the point.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Boris' Game of Chicken</span><br />
<br />
The first thing Johnson did upon moving to 10 Downing Street was to ask the EU to unilaterally take the backstop off the table if they want to talk to him.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Q--WCgNGlio/XWpRzQ_5JXI/AAAAAAAACe0/TUraGx4z2Y8tJRuWiW3hpBs0MWbPs9osQCLcBGAs/s1600/Duke.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="273" data-original-width="252" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Q--WCgNGlio/XWpRzQ_5JXI/AAAAAAAACe0/TUraGx4z2Y8tJRuWiW3hpBs0MWbPs9osQCLcBGAs/s1600/Duke.jpg" /></a><br />
Similarly, announcing new measures and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/01/no-deal-preparations-britain-boris-johnson-eu">more money</a> everyday for the preparation of a no-deal Brexit was supposed to telegraph to the European leaders his determination to take Britain out of the EU no matter what.<br />
<br />
This week, Dominic Cummings, who has a more than a passing resemblance to Doonesbury's Uncle Duke, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/30/boris-johnson-no-deal-preparation-leaflets-advice-brexit">will launch a £100 million campaign called "Get Ready."</a><br />
<br />
So I understand that Johnson's message is "we are ready to crash out if you do not give us what we want."<br />
<br />
But the strategy makes as much sense as the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_JOGmXpe5I">Cleavon Little gun play in Blazing Saddles</a>.<br />
<br />
Your interlocutors are baffled as your are threatening to shoot yourself.<br />
<br />
There is no way the EU will get rid of backstop or give in to his other demands.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49540681">Michel Barnier just said so, again.</a><br />
<br />
British exceptionalism notwithstanding, everyone is aware that in the event of a no-deal Brexit Britain will be the losing party.<br />
<br />
Make that the massively losing party.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2019/07/brexit-will-uk-leave-eu.html">British imports from the EU</a> constitutes 8 percent of European exports. Almost half of Britain's exports are destined for the EU. While both sides will be affected, which side do you think will suffer the most?<br />
<br />
How do you replace such a market?<br />
<br />
<a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2019/07/brexit-will-uk-leave-eu.html">As I mentioned in my previous Brexit post</a>, the UK imports almost 40,percent of its food and most of it comes from Europe. How do you find a new source overnight? Even if you could, you will end up buying lower quality food like chlorine-washed chicken.<br />
<br />
Then there is the issue of negotiating a trade deal after the divorce. Every single member state has the veto power over tariffs and trade arrangements. What do you think Ireland would do if the backstop was not there and a hard border was being installed?<br />
<br />
Perhaps most importantly, it is not that Britain has a lot to lose, it is also that some European countries have a lot to gain from a British exit without a deal.<br />
<br />
Take the financial sector.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN06193">With £132 billion contribution it represents about 7 percent of the UK's GDP</a>.<br />
<br />
As soon as it became clear that Britain was going to leave the EU one way or another, these companies began to move to Europe. Since 49 percent of these activities are centered in London, one immediate effect was the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Loudest_Voice">worst real-estate price plunge in ten years</a><br />
<br />
And it will get worse as the exodus have <a href="https://www.ozy.com/fast-forward/which-city-is-winning-the-race-to-be-europes-next-finance-hub-none/91755">picked up momentum.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and UBS are among the firms collectively moving $280 billion worth in assets to Frankfurt from London. Credit Suisse is moving $200 million from its market division from London to Frankfurt. And that’s just the start. These banks are among 25 financial institutions moving to the German city, according to a survey by commercial bank Helaba.</blockquote>
Others<a href="https://www.ozy.com/fast-forward/which-city-is-winning-the-race-to-be-europes-next-finance-hub-none/91755"> are choosing Paris or Amsterdam</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Bank of America is persuading staff to move to Paris, while French firms BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole and Société Générale are together moving around 500 employees back to Paris from London. In all, Helaba’s survey indicates nine firms are set to move to the French capital.</blockquote>
<a href="https://www.ozy.com/fast-forward/which-city-is-winning-the-race-to-be-europes-next-finance-hub-none/91755">Dublin is also in the running</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Over in Dublin, more than 100 Britain-based asset managers and funds have applied to the Irish central bank to authorize their move there. Barclays is moving $280 billion worth of assets to Dublin.</blockquote>
Europe may lose a large export market but it will gain a huge new financial services sector.<br />
<br />
Moreover, Macron really might prefer a nice clean Brexit.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/07/how-brexit-trump-and-macron-made-france.html">As I mentioned before</a>, that would make France the only European country with the nuclear bomb and a large military industry. With Trump flirting with the idea of leaving Nato and Putin being frisky, that would make France the most important European country overnight.<br />
<br />
In short, how do you play chicken when it is painfully obvious to everyone watching that, in case of a collision, you are the one who will be mortally wounded.<br />
<br />
And the guy driving the Humvee has enough incentives to turn you into a roadkill.<br />
<br />
Which made me think that maybe there was more to that silly game of chicken.<br />
<br />
Boris might be trying to break the binary choice between Remain and No-deal Brexit.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Boris' Blame Game and Electoral Strategy</span><br />
<br />
Let me state one basic fact: <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/17/boris-johnson-support-eu-revealed-leon-brittan-widow-letter">Boris Johnson is not a hard Brexiteer</a>.<br />
<br />
The man has no principles or convictions. He is in it for Boris Johnson and his playbook is based on his plans to keep himself at 10 Downing Street.<br />
<br />
Nothing else matters.<br />
<br />
In a binary choice between Remain, where the geriatric Brexiteers would throw him out and No-deal Brexit where the food and medical shortages and economic contraction would become his problems, Boris cannot stay prime minister for long.<br />
<br />
To break that equation, Johnson has been constructing a complex blame narrative in order to find a sweet spot for an eventual electoral victory.<br />
<br />
At home, his media partners have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/31/leo-varadkar-media-telegraph-sun-irish-taoiseach-brexit">been placing the responsibility of a no-deal exit </a>on Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span class="drop-cap">L</span>eo
Varadkar, Ireland’s prime minister, is being demonised by the
Brexit-supporting section of the British press. His determination to
stick by the backstop provision in the EU withdrawal agreement has
particularly outraged the <a class="u-underline" data-component="auto-linked-tag" data-link-name="auto-linked-tag" href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/dailytelegraph">Daily Telegraph</a> and the Sun. (...)<br />
<br />
Varadkar is being groomed as the <a class="u-underline" data-component="auto-linked-tag" data-link-name="auto-linked-tag" href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/eu-referendum">Brexit</a>
bogeyman. (...) A Sun editorial
claimed that Varadkar would be responsible for “<a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9612904/potential-chaos-of-no-deal-will-be-the-eus-fault-so-its-time-brussels-makes-boris-a-better-offer/" title="">the potential chaos of a no-deal Brexit</a>”.</blockquote>
The same <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Loudest_Voice">loudest voices</a> have also been accusing Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel of intransigence while Boris simply refused to even call them for weeks after moving to 10 Downing Street.<br />
<br />
He was letting them know that if the UK were to crash out of the EU, the ensuing food shortages and recession would be placed at their doorstep.<br />
<br />
One advantage of this tactic is that it is likely to harden Leave supporters' dislike of anything European. After long decades of anti-EU media campaign, this reported hostility and perceived intransigence will solidify the existing polarization and ensure a positive electoral outcome for Johnson.<br />
<br />
Proroguing the Parliament was part of the same strategy.<br />
<br />
On the one hand, it was intended to let the EU realize that, they should not count on the anti-no-deal majority in Parliament, as Boris was willing to tie their hands and force a no-deal Brexit.<br />
<br />
On the other hand, it dared the opposition and rebel Tories to pass legislation to stop a no-deal Brexit.<br />
<br />
That's <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49546224">the real game of chicken</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
So cranking up the pressure on Tory rebels at the start of this crucial
week could create a convenient group of bogeymen who could be chucked
out of the party, and take the blame. </blockquote>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-uR71ugL1luw/XW9ztU7KCmI/AAAAAAAACfM/3bGmD4aP8LUyDP4O5CDK0O2KXM_bkFxhACLcBGAs/s1600/Boris%2BJohnson2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="619" data-original-width="970" height="204" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-uR71ugL1luw/XW9ztU7KCmI/AAAAAAAACfM/3bGmD4aP8LUyDP4O5CDK0O2KXM_bkFxhACLcBGAs/s320/Boris%2BJohnson2.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49574217">Boris and his sidekick after Commons vote defeat</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
If they do that, he will call snap elections and campaign for leaving Europe on his term.<br />
<br />
He might ask for an extension from Europe or better yet, the EU might, without being asked, give him an extension until after the elections.<br />
<br />
Such a move would neutralize Nigel Farage and hurt Jeremy Corbyn who has never expressed a clear position on Brexit.<br />
<br />
Johnson would tell the British public that Liberal Democrats and Labour never respected the results of the referendum and they allied themselves to those pesky Eurocrats.<br />
<br />
That message would resonate well with half the electorate and it might get Johnson a solid mandate.<br />
<br />
So if Boris Johnson calls new elections, you will know that this is the real game of chicken.<br />
<br />
But if this scenario materializes, I actually don't know what Boris might do.<br />
<br />
He might try to negotiate with Europe and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/29/no-deal-brexit-boris-johnson-parliament">get some form of flexibility on the Irish border issue</a>.<br />
<br />
If successful that would break the binary equation between a no-deal Brexit and Remain.<br />
<br />
But if Europe stands firm, I wouldn't be surprised if Boris made a U-turn and declare himself a hero for having averted the dire predictions of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Yellowhammer">Operation Yellowhammer.</a><br />
<br />
You might have noticed that there are a lot of ifs down the line.<br />
<br />
--------------<br />
UPDATE:<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49558596">Well, there you go</a>.Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-37215267437025077412019-08-17T16:44:00.000+02:002019-08-17T16:44:53.989+02:00Why Trump is Reluctant to Sanction Turkey for S-400?Unless you are a news junkie or live in Turkey, you are unlikely to have heard of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48620087">the S-400 saga</a>.<br />
<br />
By itself it's not a remarkable story, a row between two Nato allies over defense procurement. But if you scratch the surface, I believe there is a highly intriguing plot about Trump monetizing the Presidency.<br />
<br />
Here is a quick rundown.<br />
<br />
A while ago, Turkey approached the Obama administration to buy Patriot air defense missiles. The US turned them down. Not because they are reluctant arms sellers <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2019/07/the-tale-of-turkey-and-the-patriots/">but because Turks asked for a lot more</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Ankara wanted to manufacture parts of the system and acquire the sensitive technology to eventually build their own. Building up the sophistication and capacity of the <a href="https://journals.openedition.org/poldev/2316">Turkish defense industry</a> has been an important goal of successive Justice and Development Party governments and various predecessors. In the case of this particular weapons system, there were understandably those in the U.S. government who were eager to protect sensitive U.S. defense technology, even from a NATO ally.</blockquote>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1mysx2xr1ZE/XVgF-vFOudI/AAAAAAAACeU/3V9tOXjfS9cWWj5_hX2YJfqogEyMWFA7ACLcBGAs/s1600/s-400.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="371" data-original-width="660" height="179" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1mysx2xr1ZE/XVgF-vFOudI/AAAAAAAACeU/3V9tOXjfS9cWWj5_hX2YJfqogEyMWFA7ACLcBGAs/s320/s-400.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiBgIDvhYrkAhVDUhoKHcBNDlwQjhx6BAgBEAI&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Fworld-europe-48620087&psig=AOvVaw0aX1_qz9CkU2pge_M5UsYL&ust=1566136126372057">S-400</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
So Turkey's president Tayyip Erdogan went to his pal Putin to ask for a substitute system, namely the S-400. <br />
<br />
Unsurprisingly, Putin, relishing the idea of selling Russian technology to a Nato member and cognizant of the opportunities it could provide, said yes.<br />
<br />
When the deal was made, Pentagon got worried.<br />
<br />
S-400 are designed to shoot down Nato aircraft, including their beloved F-35 and Turkey being a Nato member and owner of a substantial fleet of these planes, they were concerned that Russians might get some tactical information about them.<br />
<br />
No kidding, you say.<br />
<br />
They warned Erdogan that, for starters, Turkey would be cut out of the F-35 manufacturing process. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48620087">Some 937 pieces are made in Turkey of which 400 are manufactured exclusively there</a>.<br />
<br />
The US rapidly moved to source these parts from elsewhere and expelled Turkey from the program. Pentagon also stopped the training of Turkish pilots for F-35 and asked Trump and the Congress to impose significant sanctions to dissuade Erdogan from completing the transaction.<br />
<br />
Erdogan ruled that out and the S-400 have since been delivered. Pentagon and the Congressional leaders were united in their support for sanctions and pundits in Turkey were really concerned that they could push the economy into a deeper recession.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">The Khashoggi Gift</span><br />
<br />
Then something very strange happened.<br />
<br />
At the height of the crisis Erdogan said calmly that no sanctions would be imposed because he was going to talk to Donald Trump and he was sure the president would side with him.<br />
<br />
Really you say. Well, this was déjà vu all over again, bless Yogi Berra's soul.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-k5pJU5-iNDk/XVgGsSEK63I/AAAAAAAACec/CXLFTKeJvBEtb_pO9yuYiBMxQrIyJSH8gCLcBGAs/s1600/erdogan%2Btrump.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="673" data-original-width="1200" height="356" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-k5pJU5-iNDk/XVgGsSEK63I/AAAAAAAACec/CXLFTKeJvBEtb_pO9yuYiBMxQrIyJSH8gCLcBGAs/s640/erdogan%2Btrump.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj545P8horkAhUD1BoKHVfLAjoQjhx6BAgBEAI&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thenational.ae%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Ferdogan-says-trump-promised-no-sanctions-over-russian-missiles-1.880698&psig=AOvVaw1ZdqBD7h7z-BChBW_DZVy4&ust=1566136395487340">"I love this guy"</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<a href="http://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2018/12/why-did-trump-pull-out-of-syria-another.html">As I noted at the time</a>, last December, going against Congressional Republicans, his own Secretary of Defense, the Pentagon and close allies like Israel, Trump abruptly announced that the US was pulling out of Syria, leaving the whole region to Russia and Iran.<br />
<br />
Amazingly, he did so after a phone conversation with Erdogan, where the Turkish leader bluntly asked him "why are you even there?"<br />
<br />
You would assume that a notoriously thin-skinned bully like Trump would take umbrage at this and would have answered with a version of "who the hell do you think you are." Instead he turned to his mustachioed national security advisor and asked why indeed the US was there.<br />
<br />
Then, he ordered the troop withdrawal, prompting the resignation of James "Mad Dog" Mattis, his Defense Secretary.<br />
<br />
This was so out of character that, at the time, I suggested that it was a case of blackmail with Erdogan using the Khashoggi evidence he held and Trump's desire to protect the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) gave Erdogan a say in the US foreign policy.<br />
<br />
Intriguingly, former Nato commander retired general <a href="https://www.salon.com/2018/12/25/gen-wesley-clark-asks-if-trump-was-blackmailed-into-pulling-out-of-syria_partner/">Wesley Clark agreed with my hypothesis</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
During a CNN appearance on December 24, Clark stressed that “there doesn’t seem to be any strategic rational for the decision. And if there is no strategic rational, then you have to ask, ‘Why was the decision made? I can tell you that people around the world are asking this. And some of our friends and our allies in the Middle East are asking, ‘Well, <b>did Erdogan blackmail the president</b>? Was there a payoff or something? Why would a guy make a decision like this?’” [my emphasis]</blockquote>
But why is MBS so important for Trump?<br />
<br />
Besides pulling out of Syria to save him, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jul/25/donald-trump-vetoes-bills-prohibiting-arms-sales-to-saudi-arabia">Trump also vetoed a bipartisan bill </a>to stop selling arms to Saudi Arabia that could prolong the carnage in Yemen.<br />
<br />
Good question.<br />
<br />
In the Wes Clark quote, the first sentence is about blackmail, the second concerns some payoff.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">The Art of the Deal or How to Monetize the Presidency</span><br />
<br />
One of the reasons Donald Trump is so keen to keep MBS as the Crown Prince is an extraordinary deal his good friend Tom Barrack has been trying to put together.<br />
<br />
Barrack, a billionaire real estate developed whose parents are Lebanese immigrants, was Trump's inaugural committee chairman. According to Michael Wolff's Fear and Fury, he is also the guy Trump calls every night while devouring Big Macs and hollering at CNN.<br />
<br />
Barrack has been lobbying the White House to get them to allow Saudi Arabia to buy up to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jul/29/tom-barrack-saudi-arabia-nuclear-deal-envoy">40 nuclear reactors</a> from Westinghouse, the only American firm that builds large reactors, without the nuclear safeguards which are mandatory for dual use technologies.<br />
<br />
According to a Congressional report that came out at the end of July, Barrack insisted that Trump bypassed Congress in providing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/feb/23/trump-cronies-secret-talks-nuclear-tech-saudi-arabia">nuclear safeguard waivers, even though it is a legislative prerogative.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The 1954 US atomic energy act also insists prior congressional approval must be obtained for export of potential dual-use technology – in keeping with International Atomic Energy Agency rules. Yet, according to the report, private commercial interests “have been pressing aggressively” to bypass these controls, in concert with Trump associates. “These commercial entities stand to reap billions of dollars.”</blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Since the Trump Administration never worried about acting illegally (with a timid and toothless Democratic majority in the House), chances are Trump would have signed those nuclear technology waivers. </span><br />
<br />
Retired generals like Trump's first National Security Advisor Mike Flynn formed a company called IP3 with Saudi and Emirati participation and <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/07/trump-barrack-saudi-nuclear-deal-ip3">they were given unfettered access to the Administration.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #231f20; font-size: 16px;">According to the report, IP3 officials were granted such “unprecedented access” to Trumpworld that they considered the administration an “extended team member,” and officials met directly with “President </span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #231f20; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit;">[Donald] Trump</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #231f20; font-size: 16px;">, </span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #231f20; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit;">Jared Kushner</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #231f20; font-size: 16px;">, </span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #231f20; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit;">Gary Cohn</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #231f20; font-size: 16px;">, </span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #231f20; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit;">K.T. McFarland</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #231f20; font-size: 16px;">, and Cabinet Secretaries </span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #231f20; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit;">Rick Perry</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #231f20; font-size: 16px;">, </span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #231f20; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit;">Steven Mnuchin</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #231f20; font-size: 16px;">, </span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #231f20; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit;">Mike Pompeo</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #231f20; font-size: 16px;">, </span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #231f20; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit;">Rex Tillerson</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #231f20; font-size: 16px;">, </span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #231f20; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit;">James Mattis</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #231f20; font-size: 16px;">, and </span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #231f20; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit;">Wilbur Ross</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #231f20; font-size: 16px;">.” This access, the report explains, “yielded promises from high-level government officials to support IP3’s efforts with Saudi officials.”</span></span></blockquote>
You may ask why Saudi Arabia with its limitless and cheap oil and wind and solar energy options would need nuclear power. The answer does not require guesswork. In 2018 MBS declared that “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/feb/23/trump-cronies-secret-talks-nuclear-tech-saudi-arabia">without a doubt, if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible.</a>”<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/feb/23/trump-cronies-secret-talks-nuclear-tech-saudi-arabia">MBS has been quite open about his intentions</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Barack Obama’s attempt to negotiate a nuclear cooperation deal foundered over the Saudis’ refusal to sign a legally binding pledge eschewing uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing – established pathways to the bomb.</blockquote>
As usual, the <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/white-house-may-share-nuclear-power-technology-with-saudi-arabia">Trump Administration took the opposite track</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Now the Trump administration has reopened those talks and might not insist on the same precautions. At a Senate hearing on Nov. 28, Christopher Ford, the National Security Council’s senior director for weapons of mass destruction and counterproliferation, disclosed that the U.S. is discussing the issue with the Saudi government. <b>He called the safeguards a “desired outcome” but didn’t commit to them</b>. [my emphasis]</blockquote>
To push the deal to the finish line, <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/trump-adviser-tom-barrack-saudi-nuclear-deal">Tom Barrack tried to buy Westinghouse</a> out of bankruptcy.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Barrack approached private equity giants Apollo and Blackstone about joining their bid to buy Westinghouse, according to the report. In a September 2017 memo from Barrack, he said the firms would combine their funds with money from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.</blockquote>
Sadly for him, a competing bid put forward by Brookfield, a Canadian investment firm won the process and acquired Westinghouse.<br />
<br />
Incidentally, does the name Brookfield ring a bell? If you have been reading this humble soapbox for a while, it might.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2018/08/did-tillerson-stop-invasion-of-qatar.html">It is the Canadian company that leased the 666 Fifth Avenue</a> that belongs to the Kushner family for 99 years and paid for the entire lease on Day One, enabling them to pay their mortgage in February 2019 and saving them from a financial disaster.<br />
<br />
Do you know <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/17/nyregion/kushner-deal-qatar-666-5th.html">who is behind the innocuous sounding Brookfield</a>?<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The Qatar Investment Authority is the second-largest shareholder in Brookfield Properties, ranking only behind Brookfield’s former parent company.</blockquote>
To keep the dream alive, <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/trump-adviser-tom-barrack-saudi-nuclear-deal">Barrack contacted Brookfield and asked to be involved.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Barrack contacted Brookfield’s CEO asking to get involved, and Brookfield invited Barrack’s firm to make a $50 million investment, according to a February 2018 slide presentation quoted in the report.</blockquote>
To sum up, Trump confidant Tom Barrack has been trying to sell the most volatile and ruthless ruler in the world, dangerous nuclear technology fully knowing that he intends to enrich uranium and build nuclear bombs.<br />
<br />
Keeping MBS in place is important for that purpose. Another Crown Prince might not be interested.<br />
<br />
This, in turn, gives the Turkish president enormous leverage and allows him to dictate his terms to Donald Trump.<br />
<br />
Besides the Syria pullout, <a href="http://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2018/05/the-looming-halkbank-fine.html">the US Treasury never sanctioned Halkbank</a>, even though its managers were convicted of helping Iran bust sanctions to sell its oil and gas. The expected fine 0f $30-100 billion never materialized.<br />
<br />
Clearly, Erdogan has something over Trump's head and my guess is that's connected to Trump's desire to protect MBS.<br />
<br />
In case you are wondering how much money is involved, in 2017, South Carolina started to build two Westinghouse nuclear reactors. The <a href="https://thebulletin.org/2019/06/why-nuclear-power-plants-cost-so-much-and-what-can-be-done-about-it/">original estimate of $14 billion soon ballooned to $23 billion</a>.<br />
<br />
That's almost $12 billion a pop. We are talking about 40 of these beauties.<br />
<br />
Imagine Trump's cut.<br />
<br />
The irony in all this we have Qatar to thank for in preventing this from happening. But even they know that they cannot say no to Trump when he comes asking.<br />
<br />
And he is doing this in plain sight.Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-35760874470771561622019-07-28T12:27:00.004+02:002019-07-29T23:38:36.882+02:00Brexit: Will The UK Leave The EU?As the resident contrarian my short answer is no, Britain is highly unlikely to leave the EU.<br />
<br />
I resisted the urge to write about Brexit because the debate surrounding British withdrawal was so biased and the reporting was so shallow that I knew it would be a long piece as I would have to explain everything.<br />
<br />
For instance, for two years people debated the so-called <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norway_plus">Norway Plus arrangement</a> with a straight face even though no such option exists or could exist. It requires membership to the European Free Trade Association and its dominant member Norway ruled out any such membership from day one.<br />
<br />
It also calls for a strict adherence to EU rules and regulations (as Norway does) which is anathema to prominent Brexiteers.<br />
<br />
Such ignorance is typical of the Brexit process and I believe at the root of the idea that Britain would be better off outside Europe lies a deep misinformation about European institutions.<br />
<br />
I know you are scratching your head. Ok, we know this guy is supposed to be a contrarian but this is stupid, you say. With a month-old political party Nigel Farage got 34 percent of the vote in the recent European elections.<br />
<br />
More importantly, there is the new PM Boris Johnson who affirmed that deal or no deal the UK will leave the Union at the end of October.<br />
<br />
Allow me to explain my reasoning.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Removing the Social Safety Net and Deregulation</span><br />
<br />
There are several misconceptions about Brexit. The first one is the widely shared view that the Tories were caught unawares by the results of the referendum.<br />
<br />
I don't believe that for a second.<br />
<br />
To me the referendum and Brexit make sense in the context of a long process that began with Margaret Thatcher.<br />
<br />
You see, following the 1960s, which was a decade of prosperity and full employment, British businesses began to resent the power of the trade unions. A parallel movement on both sides of the Atlantic was put in motion to implement the same blueprint. Thatcherism on one side and Reaganomics on the other.<br />
<br />
First step was to crush the unions which was easier to do in the US and much harder in the UK. Still, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_miners%27_strike_(1984%E2%80%9385)">Thatcher managed that nicely</a>, as we all know.<br />
<br />
The next step was rolling back the welfare state and chipping away at the social safety network. Again successive governments and administrations patiently reduced unemployment benefits, healthcare and education spending.<br />
<br />
The US was much more successful in turning their working classes into impoverished and helpless people. They employed a variety of wedge issues like culture wars, gays, abortion and lately immigration as misdirection while they took away their money and gave it to the one percenters.<br />
<br />
As a result, the US is now "<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46994099">a country where an estimated 40% of adults don't have funds to cover an unexpected $400 expense</a>."<br />
<br />
While subduing its workers and reducing their wages, the Republicans opened up new horizons for the corporate elite by deregulating every possible constraint they were facing.<br />
<br />
They <a href="https://jacobinmag.com/2017/02/trump-epa-environment-conservation-reagan-bush">could pollute</a>, resell <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022616/history-high-yield-bond-meltdowns.asp">junk mortgages as AAA bonds</a>, disregard <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_safety_in_the_United_States">food safety</a> or <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20190402-focus-united-states-price-insulin-killing-americans-diabetics-us-health-medicine-pharma">charge exorbitant prices </a>for incredibly cheap drugs like insulin.<br />
<br />
Sky was the limits.<br />
<br />
In the UK, Tories also started a massive upward income redistribution by introducing <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/10/how-austerity-broke-britain-and-how-we-can-recover">austerity policies</a> at a time of contracting economy.<br />
<br />
They also cut social services available to low income families to make them more vulnerable in the labor market. They <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/01/conservatives-underfunding-nhs-made-crisis-inevitable">defunded NHS</a>, reduced <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/14/the-guardian-view-on-record-unemployment-not-the-whole-picture">unemployment benefits</a> and made hiring and firing very easy.<br />
<br />
This phenomenon is called economic insecurity.<br />
<br />
And on both sides, they blamed this new state of affairs <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/11/immigrants-nhs-crisis-underfunding-social-care-hospitals">on the immigrants</a>.<br />
<br />
As a result, the UK has the highest <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2019/may/14/britain-risks-heading-to-us-levels-of-inequality-warns-top-economist">Gini coefficient (showing income inequality) in Europe.</a><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-W4ydV80NOCc/XTxDBmY03aI/AAAAAAAACd0/2IlIPa4LF_cRHyhffLlMVJ5GngnLucqvQCLcBGAs/s1600/UK%2BGini%2Bcoefficient.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="554" data-original-width="951" height="371" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-W4ydV80NOCc/XTxDBmY03aI/AAAAAAAACd0/2IlIPa4LF_cRHyhffLlMVJ5GngnLucqvQCLcBGAs/s640/UK%2BGini%2Bcoefficient.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
According to a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2019/may/14/britain-risks-heading-to-us-levels-of-inequality-warns-top-economist">Nobel winning economist, it will get worse</a>.<br />
<br />
Which was by design, as I suggested above.<br />
<br />
But there was one glaring difference between the US and the UK: The EU prevented British companies from lowering food standards, ripping off consumers, polluting at will, drastically reducing labor compensation and removing regulations they don't like.<br />
<br />
The Common Market is a huge and affluent market but it is also highly regulated. You cannot do anything you want.<br />
<br />
And that bothered the British companies.<br />
<br />
That's why you had a sustained media effort to frame the EU institutions and their activities in a negative way. Brussels has always been presented as a money-wasting, over-regulating, intrusive and completely out of control institution.<br />
<br />
Stephen Clarke, a British humorist, <a href="https://www.amazon.fr/Merde-Europe-Stephen-Clarke/dp/1784755583">has a long list of phony Brussels crimes</a>. These are actual headlines from British press.<br />
<ul>
<li>Brussels to force farmers to give toys to pigs</li>
<li>EU to ban singing in pubs</li>
<li>According to the EU’s animal waste directive, it is illegal to bury dead pets unless you have pressure-cooked them at 130°C for half an hour</li>
<li>EU to ban Scottish bagpipes</li>
<li>Brussels will give in to French pressure and force Britain to rename Waterloo Station and Trafalgar Square</li>
<li>Smoky-bacon crisps to be banned by Brussels</li>
<li>Brussels rules that oysters must be given rest breaks during transport to market</li>
<li>Kilts to be re-defined as women’s wear</li>
<li>Brussels will force lorry drivers to eat muesli</li>
<li>According to a new EU law, the Queen will have to fetch her own cup of tea</li>
<li>Brussels wants to ban British barmaids’ cleavage</li>
<li>EU to force British fish-and-chip shops to use Latin names for fish</li>
<li>God Save the Queen must be sung in all immigrant languages</li>
<li>No alcohol sales during the week, says Brussels</li>
<li>EU will force cows to wear nappies</li>
<li>English Channel to be renamed "Anglo-French Pond"</li>
<li>Great British banger to be outlawed by Brussels</li>
<li>British toilets to be replaced by “euro-loos”</li>
<li>EU wants to measure how badly workers smell</li>
<li>New Brussels law: worn-out sex toys must be given back to retailers</li>
<li>EU wants all condoms to be of uniform size – small</li>
<li>EU bureaucrats decree that Britain is not an island</li>
</ul>
You may laugh but a large portion of the British public actually believed these lies and made up stories. Because no one has ever contested them.<br />
<br />
You chuckle, roll your eyes and wink, wink, nudge, nudge, "them continentals" discourse.<br />
<br />
By the way, as an aside, do you know who instigated this campaign?<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/16/boris-johnson-english-ruling-class-eurosceptic">Boris Johnson.</a><br />
<br />
He landed a job in 1989 as the Brussels correspondent of Daily Telegraph.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The son of a former Eurocrat
and member of the European parliament, he made a lasting impression as
the inventor of the “Euromyth”, a journalistic genre now termed fake
news. With the backing of his editors it seems, he eagerly
misrepresented events or even completely made up stories to portray the
European commission as a bureaucratic monster making absurd proposals.
As he once explained to me, aged 28 and dressed as ever in a rumpled
jacket, his shirt spilling out in typically English manner: “You mustn’t
let facts get in the way of a good story.” <a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-lies-conservative-leader-candidate-list-times-banana-brexit-bus-a8929076.html" title="">Among other yarns</a>,
he claimed there were plans to establish a “banana police force” to
check the fruit was the right shape, that coffins would be standardised
and prawn cocktail crisps would be outlawed.</blockquote>
By all accounts, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/15/boris-johnson-inherit-crisis-eu-bashing">he was simply shameless</a>.<br />
<br />
But it was not just a conservative media campaign.<br />
<br />
You also had decades of politicians claiming that the UK was putting too much in and and getting not much in return. <a href="https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/">Which is total rubbish</a> even when you look at budget numbers. But if you look beyond, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/202a60c0-cfd8-11e5-831d-09f7778e7377">the EU was an amazing bonus</a> for the UK.<br />
<br />
But without that constant whining, fewer people would have believed the Leave whopper about the UK sending £350 million every week to Brussels. <br />
<br />
They did because of the echo chamber that was created by the conservative media and politicians.<br />
<br />
What these business wanted was to have access to the EU market without abiding by its regulations. When they launched the referendum, they assumed that the Europeans, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/16/european-ministers-boris-johnson-prosecco-claim-brexit">eager to sell Prosecco to the UK market</a>, would find a way.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“He [Boris Johnson] basically said: ‘I don’t want free movement of people but I want the single market,’” he told Bloomberg. “I said: ‘No way.’ He said: ‘You’ll sell less prosecco.’ I said: ‘OK, you’ll sell less fish and chips, but I’ll sell less prosecco to one country and you’ll sell less to 27 countries.’ </blockquote>
This was simply not possible given the current rules of the EU. The so-called four freedoms are a package.<br />
<br />
Yet, to my knowledge no one has seriously explained this to the British public. Everyone, including Labour politicians, assumed that the UK was too important for the Union for them not to give in to its demands.<br />
<br />
This is, of course, ludicrous but many people genuinely believed this. And the conservative British media did nothing to dispel this.<br />
<br />
So now the British companies are faced with a situation where they will lose access to their biggest export market. They are beginning to realize that their assumptions were incorrect and their knowledge of the EU institutions was deficient.<br />
<br />
Moreover, losing access to the EU market is not the only problem. There are others and they are simply insurmountable. They couldn't have been solved in two years and it is simply impossible to solve them in three months.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">The Irish Border and the Backstop</span><br />
<br />
To begin with, there is no way a solution can be found to the Irish border issue. I am genuinely surprised why this was not brought up in a massive way during the campaign.<br />
<br />
If there is no hard border between the South and the North, how could Brexiteers claim that they have taken back the control of their country? All you need to do to get into the UK is to fly to Dublin or catch a ferry to Rosslare.<br />
<br />
But if you establish a hard border between the Republic and the North, you would be inviting a return to the good old days of the "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Troubles">Troubles</a>."<br />
<br />
You know the IRA and hunger strikes and young British soldiers dying.<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-3NTIChfjGoc/XAPpVgeCe-I/AAAAAAAACVA/Tr4tJZ4VWhM277Ap5o1l5bqkDScYw7q1ACLcBGAs/s1600/Jacob-rees%2Bmogg.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="539" data-original-width="810" height="212" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-3NTIChfjGoc/XAPpVgeCe-I/AAAAAAAACVA/Tr4tJZ4VWhM277Ap5o1l5bqkDScYw7q1ACLcBGAs/s320/Jacob-rees%2Bmogg.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-jacob-rees-mogg-snapped-11276996"><span class="credit" itemprop="author" style="border: 0px; color: #141414; font-family: "open sans" , sans-serif; font-size: 11px; margin: 0px 0px 0px 2px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">(Image: Alan Davidson/SilverHub)</span></a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-47985469">It is already starting.</a><br />
<br />
Yet, charismatically-challenged Brexiteers like Jacob-Rees Mogg simply shrugged it off.<br />
<br />
His position is that establishing a hard border between the North and the South <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/26/have-people-inspected-at-irish-border-after-brexit-says-jacob-rees-mogg">to inspect people would be fine and would lead to no new problems</a>.<br />
<br />
Sure, and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebensraum">Lebensraum </a>just meant "living spaces" for blond people.<br />
<br />
Let me repeat it, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/26/hard-brexit-united-ireland-second-referendum-dup">there is no workable solution for the Irish border issue</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
If there were, you’d have heard of them by now. The details of this
technological masterpiece would already be a double-page spread in the
Daily Mail with Rees-Mogg mocked up as Alan Turing under the headline
“Enigma cracks Enigma – spirit of Bletchley takes back control”. If an
alternative arrangement that worked actually existed (or was likely to
exist in the next couple of years) Brexiteers would have already
accepted the backstop, knowing they could easily replace it with their
idea during the transition. The fact that they won’t bet on themselves
tells you all you need to know about what they have in the locker.</blockquote>
Curiously, during the referendum, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/30/boris-johnson-jeremy-hunt-do-not-understand-what-it-is-like-when-wall-falls-northern-ireland-brexit">the Leave campaign had no idea about the Irish border issue</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/13/cake-unicorns-brexit-zealots" title="">Oliver Norgrove</a>, who was a staffer on the official Leave campaign, recently recalled in the <a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/why-brexiteers-forgot-about-the-border-1.3831635" title=""><em>Irish Times</em></a> an awkward moment about a month before the referendum of June 2016. A request came in from the BBC’s <em>Newsnight</em>.
Would the Leave campaign send a representative to debate the effects of
Brexit on the Irish border? “Nobody in the office,” recalled Norgrove,
“was keen to take up the request, with even our more polished and
experienced media performers rejecting the opportunity on the grounds
that they simply lacked real knowledge of the issue. I remember quite
vividly the feeling of unease and discomfort about the prospect of us
talking about something we just didn’t feel needed addressing.”</blockquote>
They simply ignored it and no one confronted them.<br />
<br />
Ironically, one of the consequences of a no deal Brexit <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/26/hard-brexit-united-ireland-second-referendum-dup">could be a united Ireland</a>.<br />
<br />
And possibly the end of United Kingdom if Scotland decides to go independent.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Disastrous Consequences for British Economy</span><br />
<br />
A no deal Brexit, which was previously known as hard Brexit, would be a disaster for British industry and trade.<br />
<br />
Besides the need to negotiate everything, including the right to land planes on European cities or reviewing drug patents and certification norms, we know that in a no deal Brexit, the current Just In Time system of manufacturing would collapse spectacularly.<br />
<br />
A while ago, <a href="https://politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/07/27/this-is-what-no-deal-brexit-actually-looks-like">Ian Dunt explained</a> what it would be like just for the food industry.<br />
<br />
The UK produces 60 percent of its food, the rest comes from (mainly) Europe. Everyday there are 10,000 containers bringing in food items to the UK. You know, burger meat from Poland, France, Roumania or Hungary.<br />
<br />
Currently, inspections and certification processes are done at the source and nothing is done at the border.<br />
<br />
With Brexit that will take place at the border.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/k.han/research.html">A study estimated</a> that if clearance of paperwork in Dover moved up from 2 minutes to just 4, within 24 hours there would be a 20 miles tailback. And it would continue to get longer as days go by.<br />
<br />
Food inspection takes 36 hours on average, which means that the UK will have two options. Continue as before and let any food shipment coming from the EU in with no inspections.<br />
<br />
But <a href="https://politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/07/27/this-is-what-no-deal-brexit-actually-looks-like">as Ian Dunt points out</a>, that would open the door to anyone sending substandard or even contaminated items as they would know that there will be no inspection. Also it would not solve the issue of British food exports to the EU as member states are under no obligation to reciprocate the British move.<br />
<br />
Another solution is to import food from the US.<br />
<br />
There are two difficulties with this.<br />
<br />
One is the distance, food goes bad quickly and transportation is expensive.<br />
<br />
The other is the difference between <a href="https://politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/07/27/this-is-what-no-deal-brexit-actually-looks-like">sanitary and phytosanitary standards.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Years ago Nasa developed something called Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP). It was an extremely systematic approach to guaranteeing quality control on foods, primarily for the reason that it is very, very problematic if an astronaut gets diarrhoea. The EU adopted this very high standard in 2006. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The US, on the other hand, has much lower standards. The EU rejects US standards on the levels of pesticides residue in fruit, for instance, hormone injections in beef and chlorine wash for poultry. It has strict and very welcome requirements on the excess and routine use of antimicrobials in agriculture. </blockquote>
Which means to get out of Europe, Britain will have the accept to import more expensive and lower quality food stuff.<br />
<br />
Then there is the issue of tariffs.<br />
<br />
In a no deal scenario, agricultural products will face an average of 22 percent tariff. This would be disastrous for the British producers who sell mainly to the European market.<br />
<br />
OK, you might say, the UK could unilaterally lower these tariffs to zero hoping that the Europeans might reciprocate. Well, they are under no such obligation and if you know about their signature <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Agricultural_Policy">Common Agriculture Policy</a> you know that such gestures would be unlikely as it was designed to protect the domestic producers.<br />
<br />
Even if they did, under WTO rules, the UK would be obligated to apply the same zero tariff to every country. This could open the floodgates of cheap third country food exports.<br />
<br />
You know, the dreaded <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/18/boris-johnson-falsely-denies-issuing-turkey-warning-in-brexit-campaign">Turkish exports</a> from Boris Johnson's <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Kemal">original homeland</a>.<br />
<br />
Either way British agricultural producers would be very negatively impacted.<br />
<br />
There is one more problem.<br />
<br />
There are not enough veterinarians in the UK to handle food certification to continue to deal with the EU. 95 percent of these vets working in the British food processing centers are from Europe and apparently, they are leaving <a href="https://politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/07/27/this-is-what-no-deal-brexit-actually-looks-like">fast at a pace of 20 vets per month.</a><br />
<br />
And, in an added irony for anti-immigration Brexiteers. there are no British vets to take their place.<br />
<br />
Please note that this is just one sector.<br />
<br />
Even in non-disruptive cases like aviation, the UK will be the losing side.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/flight-plane-post-brexit-air-travelers-face-turbulence-travel-march-30/">Brussels offered to maintain</a> the current bilateral system in a no deal scenario but the UK would lose the right for intra-EU flights and will not be able to open new routes or add new flights to existing routes.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">What Will Boris Do?</span><br />
<br />
In short, since it is impossible for Boris Johnson to negotiate a deal that would satisfy hardline Brexiteers and that would also be acceptable for 27 European member states, come 31 October, he will have to choose between a no deal exit and Remain.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bKTUBixXgvo/XT19WfKKUQI/AAAAAAAACeA/3rCvvXU_50g-jg8f9iwYZV7S4TFOO7SxACLcBGAs/s1600/Boris%2BJohnson.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="467" data-original-width="700" height="425" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bKTUBixXgvo/XT19WfKKUQI/AAAAAAAACeA/3rCvvXU_50g-jg8f9iwYZV7S4TFOO7SxACLcBGAs/s640/Boris%2BJohnson.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/boris-johnson-has-got-eu-so-rattled-they-fear-a-post-brexit-cold-war-john-mclellan-1-4972043">Boris Johnson</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
British businesses would never allow the former and they would put a lot of pressure on Johnson. There is also a majority in Parliament against a no deal exit. Even DUP would vote against it as they are aware of the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-48945843">severe economic consequences for Northern Ireland</a>.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/30/boris-johnson-jeremy-hunt-do-not-understand-what-it-is-like-when-wall-falls-northern-ireland-brexit">There is also the possibility of a legal challenge</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The EU Withdrawal Act, passed at Westminster in 2018, states that
nothing in it may “diminish any form of north-south co-operation
provided for by the <a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2019/jan/31/protecting-the-good-friday-agreement-podcast" title="">Belfast agreement</a>”.
This is UK law – and an official mapping exercise identifies 142 policy
areas of north-south co-operation, 51 relating to the operation of the
north-south ministerial council established under the agreement. A
no-deal exit or a ditching of the backstop would break that law.</blockquote>
But you might say, Boris Johnson was categorical about leaving on 31 October deal or no deal.<br />
<br />
Well, <a href="https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/37-lies-gaffes-scandals-make-18558695">Boris is an inveterate liar</a> and like Trump he has no qualms about making a U-turn when he feels like it.<br />
<br />
We will see in due course, but my money is on Remain.<br />
______________<br />
<br />
UPDATE<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/29/trump-trade-deal-britain-bonfire-regulations-liz-truss-brexit">In case you were wondering</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span class="drop-cap">B</span>oris Johnson’s ruthless reshuffle makes one thing very clear: Brexit is about giving the right wing of the Tory party “<a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.ft.com/content/6cb84f70-6b7c-11e6-a0b1-d87a9fea034f">the chance to finish the Thatcher revolution</a>”.
Johnson filled his government with ultra-free market ideologues such as
Priti Patel, Dominic Raab, Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng, who in 2012
vowed to give a good kick to the great British public, who they
described as “<a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/07/boris-johnson-government-britannia-unchained">among the worst idlers in the world</a>”.
Their plan to “unchain Britannia” by declaring war on the “bloated
state, high taxes and excessive regulation” is actually a plan to
unchain big business, which they believe, astonishingly, has suffered
from masses of overregulation on the part of successive governments from
Tony Blair to David Cameron.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Right at the ideological heart of this group is Liz Truss, founder of the <a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2012/03/free-enterprise-group-profile.html">Free Enterprise Group</a>
of Conservative MPs. Truss is a turbo-charged Thatcherite who has now
replaced Liam Fox as international trade secretary. She has repeatedly
spoken of her desire to drive down taxes, cut back public spending and
strip away regulations on everything from housing, to education, to the
workplace. In Truss’s mind, it would be a “<a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/chief-secretary-to-the-treasury-liz-truss-speech-to-the-london-school-of-economics">complete contradiction of the Brexit vote</a>”
if it isn’t used to impose “fiscal discipline and economic
liberalisation … [to] give people power over their own money and their
own lives”.</blockquote>
It was about regulations and the Thatcher revolution.<br />
<br />
Good luck with that, as they as in the US.Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-42773321142140687752019-06-18T18:54:00.004+02:002019-06-20T19:10:06.543+02:00Is War With Iran Imminent?It is beginning to feel like a recurring nightmare.<br />
<br />
You know it is not real. You know it will end badly. Yet you are unable to stop it.<br />
<br />
The <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2019/05/tanker-attacks-in-gulf-in-search-of.html">four "sabotaged" tankers</a> in the Gulf of Oman were the beginning of a very familiar narrative.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2003/US/01/10/wbr.smoking.gun/">The smoking gun appearing as a mushroom cloud</a>.<br />
<br />
In this iteration, Saudi Arabia recently claimed that four of its tankers (actually one belonging to a Norwegian company) <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2019/05/tanker-attacks-in-gulf-in-search-of.html">were seriously damaged</a> and implied that Iran was behind the attack.<br />
<br />
Despite an initial lack of pictures or other evidence, <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2019/05/tanker-attacks-in-gulf-in-search-of.html">it subsequently became clear</a> that the damage in question consisted of small holes in the hulls and no explosions were reported.<br />
<br />
By the way, this is still the only damage picture I could find, the Saudi tankers, initially photographed from a distance, seem to have vanished.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-86cDbQeReG4/XPo3EK6S8nI/AAAAAAAACcM/UwwcXobMzuAoBpGeV6F3tHCbk90ve7PDwCLcBGAs/s1600/Norwegian%2Btanker.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="371" data-original-width="660" height="358" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-86cDbQeReG4/XPo3EK6S8nI/AAAAAAAACcM/UwwcXobMzuAoBpGeV6F3tHCbk90ve7PDwCLcBGAs/s640/Norwegian%2Btanker.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Still, both the Saudis and the UAE maintained that it was obviously Iran's work. And an American investigative team concurred after a very cursory examination, <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2019/05/tanker-attacks-in-gulf-in-search-of.html">which lasted less than a day</a>.<br />
<br />
Then John Bolton and his moustache argued that the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48443454">damage was "almost certainly" caused by Iranian mines</a>. However, neither Bolton nor his moustache offered any proof or an explanation for the lack of accompanying explosions.<br />
<br />
A few days later, UAE diplomats made a presentation to the UN Security Council and blamed "a state actor" for the incident.<br />
<br />
But the whole thing looked, well, hokey.<br />
<br />
No explosion, no sinking of ships, no wounded personnel and no real leakage (even though <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48387033">they tried to make it appear as one did</a>).<br />
<br />
So during that presentation, UAE, Norway and Saudi Arabia went technical and claimed that the damage was caused by "limpet mines."<br />
<br />
That made the whole thing sound real and ominous. I could hear people saying OMG, limpet mines.<br />
<br />
Remember <a href="https://theintercept.com/2018/02/06/lie-after-lie-what-colin-powell-knew-about-iraq-fifteen-years-ago-and-what-he-told-the-un/">Colin Powell's presentation</a> on "high-grade (7075-T6)" aluminum tubes.<br />
<br />
UAE and Saudi Arabia copied but sadly they could only do limpet mines.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Limpet Mines Are As Effective As Loose Lips in Sinking Ships</span><br />
<br />
Do you know what limpet mines are?<br />
<br />
They were introduced just before WWII and they are different from traditional mines in that <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limpet_mine">they are attached to the hull of a ship with magnets</a>. Typically, they have timers to get them to explode at a specific time.<br />
<br />
Here is the interesting part. Because their payload is small they are always placed below water level to ensure that the explosion opens up a hole in the hull to sink or seriously damage the ship.<br />
<br />
In accordance with that common practice, <a href="https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201906071075703380-uae-norway-saudi-arabia-claim-limpet-mines-used-in-tanker-attacks-were-deployed-by-divers---report/">Norway, UAE and Saudi Arabia claimed that limpet mines</a> were placed by divers. Or frogmen as they were known when the limpet mines were in vogue.<br />
<br />
Curiously, as you can see from the picture of Andrea Victory, these archaic mines were placed above the water line to make small holes that could be photographed and not below where they might sink them.<br />
<br />
In any event, when it became clear that the world was not impressed with this alleged Iranian attack which callously aimed to open tiny holes in Saudi tankers, a new one was staged.<br />
<br />
A few days ago, two tankers with "<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/13/oil-tankers-blasts-reports-gulf-of-oman-us-navy">Japan related cargo</a>" were attacked In the Strait of Hormuz.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The timing of Thursday’s attacks was especially sensitive because it
came as the Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, held talks with the
Iranian leadership in Tehran in an effort to find a basis for
discussions between the US and Iran.</blockquote>
Such an unlucky coincidence.<br />
<br />
This time they went for a more <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7SlOzl64WI">spectacular explosion as you can see in this clip</a>.<br />
<br />
And this a screenshot.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Voa_kAh1awo/XQZ1nt_arOI/AAAAAAAACcs/b45ICc5KHjY2KnBc0RyPYXaQRmWXzZuGQCLcBGAs/s1600/Japanese%2Btanker2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="915" data-original-width="1600" height="364" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Voa_kAh1awo/XQZ1nt_arOI/AAAAAAAACcs/b45ICc5KHjY2KnBc0RyPYXaQRmWXzZuGQCLcBGAs/s640/Japanese%2Btanker2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
You can see the difference from the earlier "attacks." </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Notice also the smoke coming from the stern from inside the tanker which couldn't be caused by limpet mines. And the flames emerging from below the water line which didn't jive with the rest of the reported incidents.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
I was curious. So, I looked around a bit. The tanker in the clip is Front Altair owned by Frontline Ltd. <a href="https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/frontline-update-regarding-front-altair/">This is what they said</a>:</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Frontline was able to deploy emergency responders in a timely manner,
who extinguished fire on the vessel within hours of the incident and
ensured no pollution resulted. Contrary to media reports, the vessel
remains afloat and is being attended to by a salvage vessel. </blockquote>
It is clear that the picture was worse than what the damage was.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48627014">More importantly,</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
No close-up images of the damage to the vessel's hull have been
released, but the crew of a tug that helped put out the fire was heard
saying on the radio that <a class="story-body__link-external" href="https://twitter.com/DonaldAMacLeod/status/1139095947173072897">there was a large hole just above the waterline</a>. </blockquote>
Above the waterline.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
As breathless speculations ensued about the terrorist regime in Tehran, the US Navy released a footage that showed some folks on a boat removing limpet mines from one of the tankers. They claimed that these were members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.</div>
<br />
That is the video.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/Id-bQqmqlsg/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Id-bQqmqlsg?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<br />
<br />
Now look at the still from the video. This is the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-48671319">"Japan related cargo" ship, named Kokuka Courageous.</a><br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48633016">It is annotated by the US Navy</a>.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wpZ5RTfPPFc/XQZ0tfayOkI/AAAAAAAACck/2ZkmN1c8xygZI4O-e1NpIsypsLuzbFmCACLcBGAs/s1600/Japanese%2Btanker.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1203" height="424" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wpZ5RTfPPFc/XQZ0tfayOkI/AAAAAAAACck/2ZkmN1c8xygZI4O-e1NpIsypsLuzbFmCACLcBGAs/s640/Japanese%2Btanker.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
You have to grant me that this is a curious image.<br />
<br />
The hole on the side of the tanker is relatively tiny compared to the flames in the picture and clip I posted above. It barely looks bigger than the unexploded "limpet mine" shown to the right.<br />
<br />
Moreover, both mines are way above the water line and the one that exploded seems to have caused very little damage.<br />
<br />
There is a clear cognitive dissonance between this picture and the tanker in flames.<br />
<br />
My guess is that Iran realized that they were being set up, sent out patrol boats to see if there were more limpet mines. Their job was easy as none of them seemed to have been placed below water line.<br />
<br />
The divers who placed the limpet mines were in fact climbers.<br />
<br />
Today we were shown a new image from Kokuka Courageous.<br />
<br />
The limpet mine damage is unbelievable.<br />
<br />
Literally.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pQdqhGVbn04/XQkVj51sheI/AAAAAAAACc4/3pDNwov-qb49bzBSy7751GnMgNSMQhCFwCLcBGAs/s1600/Tanker%2Bhole.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="371" data-original-width="660" height="358" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pQdqhGVbn04/XQkVj51sheI/AAAAAAAACc4/3pDNwov-qb49bzBSy7751GnMgNSMQhCFwCLcBGAs/s640/Tanker%2Bhole.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">What About A War With Iran?</span><br />
<br />
Remember <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2019/05/tanker-attacks-in-gulf-in-search-of.html">my earlier concern about the three amigos</a> trying to ignite the region to save their own skins?<br />
<br />
Well, there are more signs.<br />
<br />
To begin with, <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/mossad-intelligence-linked-iran-to-uae-tanker-sabotage-report/">Israeli media claimed that the intelligence</a> about Iran's involvement came from Mossad.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.globalresearch.ca/russian-american-israeli-meeting-jerusalem-syria-iran-table/5680395">Then I found out that</a>,<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
the National Security Advisors of Russia, the US, and Israel, <strong>Nikolay Patrushev, John Bolton</strong> and <strong>Meir Ben-Shabbat</strong>,
respectively, are expected to meet in Jerusalem to talk about Iran and
Syria and what Israel considers the “threat to its security” in the
Levant.</blockquote>
You have to admit that this is strange.<br />
<br />
Why would Russia, ostensibly an Iranian ally, would meet with John Bolton and his moustache and of all places in Jerusalem to discuss Iran.<br />
<br />
Then, yesterday, Iran announced that <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48661843">it will breach the enriched uranium limit</a> set by the 2015 agreement on 27 June, just nine day from now.<br />
<br />
The <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-48671319">following day we had this</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Iran's President Hassan Rouhani said his country did not seek to wage
war with any nation and had remained "loyal" to its international
obligations.</blockquote>
Which tells me that the hardliners were egging on the Orange Man.<br />
<br />
Who <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-48671319">responded by sending an additional 1,000 troops</a> to the region. They will join the 1,500 sent last month.<br />
<br />
Can you see the trend?<br />
<br />
Color me concerned.
<br />
<br />
Very concerned.<br />
<br />
__________________<br />
<br />
UPDATE<br />
<br />
I stand corrected. There were pictures of the other three tankers involved in the original incident. They were released by the UAE.<br />
<br />
The damage was so extensive (!) that <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48627014">they did not need to evacuate the crew.</a><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YbolPxIMvzk/XQkaX320yPI/AAAAAAAACdM/J6Yhvxc7IVMkCuUWTCbfGhcoUjkr7srPgCLcBGAs/s1600/four%2Btankers.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="724" data-original-width="1106" height="418" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YbolPxIMvzk/XQkaX320yPI/AAAAAAAACdM/J6Yhvxc7IVMkCuUWTCbfGhcoUjkr7srPgCLcBGAs/s640/four%2Btankers.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
There were other pictures provided by the UAE. But I will not bore you with them as they were close ups of nondescript hull damages.<br />
<br />
Any serious damage that does not require the evacuation of the crew cannot be serious by definition.Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-54982858611895782392019-06-04T19:18:00.002+02:002019-06-06T23:50:20.110+02:00Hemedti Crackdown: "People Power Takes a Big Hit"<a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2019/06/why-was-there-coup-in-sudan-after-30.html">In my recent post on Sudan</a>, I expressed my dismay with the disinformation element in the "People Power" or the Arab Spring II narratives.<br />
<br />
The removal of Omar al-Bashir was a basic coup d'etat orchestrated by Saudi Arabia. The goal was to bring malleable generals to power who will do anything to support Mohammed bin Salman's (MBS) adventures, including providing troops in a Saudi war with Iran.<br />
<br />
In fact, the more I think about it and the more it looks like MBS is putting together an Arab military alliance comprised of <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20190524-sudan-general-vows-back-saudi-against-iran-threats">Egypt and Sudan in order to challenge Iran</a>.<br />
<br />
I can see that al-Bashir was too old, too cynical and too vacillating for the bellicose young prince.<br />
<br />
Yesterday, Khartoum witnessed the limits of the People Power. In fact, the quote in the title is from <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-48503408">the BBC's coverage</a>.<br />
<br />
The leader of the Janjaweed militia and <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2019/06/why-was-there-coup-in-sudan-after-30.html">the architect of its crimes against humanity Hemedti</a> ordered his Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to open fire on peaceful sit-in protesters in Khartoum.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-48503408">The result? </a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The Central Committee of Sudanese Doctors, which is close to the
protesters, said 30 people - including an eight-year-old child - had
been killed, and that the toll was likely to rise as not all casualties
had been accounted for. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Hundreds of people had been injured, it added.</blockquote>
As <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2019/06/why-was-there-coup-in-sudan-after-30.html">I noted in my previous post</a>, the real power figure is Hemedti, because he has the complete backing of MBS. And I am<a href="https://eastafricamonitor.com/hemedti-seize-power/"> not the only one</a> who suspects that he is the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/29/hemedti-the-feared-commander-pulling-the-strings-in-sudan">one pulling the strings in Sudan</a>.<br />
<br />
Once the carnage was completed and terror message was sent, the head of the Transitional Military Council (TMC) General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the one everyone praised for his moderate views as the ombudsman of the army, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-48503408">made a declaration</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
(T)he TMC's head,
General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, said in a statement broadcast on state
television that they had decided to "stop negotiating with the Alliance
for Freedom and Change and cancel what had been agreed on". </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
An election in nine months' time would take place under "regional and international supervision", he added.</blockquote>
Now, I have an issue with this, a question no one seems to want to ask.<br />
<br />
Why the sudden change in the timeline?<br />
<br />
TMC wanted two years to organize itself into an Algerian or Burmese or insert-country-name-here style election where they would retain levers of power. It takes time to terrorise your opponents, disrupt the formation of a cohesive opposition, write a bogus constitution and build a power block that can control media outlets, state institutions, the judiciary and everything else.<br />
<br />
In nine months all you can do is to go with the previous people in those institutions, as the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-48503408">former British ambassador Rosalind Marsden argued</a>.<br />
<br />
It seems like the deadline was ordered from outside. Someone used Tim Gunn's immortal words and said "make it work" we have a war planned and we need someone in power to back us up<br />
<br />
If I were a Middle East analyst trying to figure out if there is going to be a Sunni/Shia war, I would pay <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20190524-sudan-general-vows-back-saudi-against-iran-threats">really close attention to Sudan</a>.<br />
<br />
Hemedti and MBS are your guys.<br />
<br />
__________________<br />
UPDATE<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-48517768">BBC goes cynical but after the Hemedti massacre</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The plan is more than likely a fiction, not designed to produce civilian rule or anything like it. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
There
is ample precedent in Africa and elsewhere these days for elections
which go through the motions of democracy but deliver none of its
substance. <br />
Don't be surprised to see senior figures from the TMC "retiring" from the military and standing as civilian candidates. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<br />
What will not change is military control of Sudanese life. </blockquote>
This was written half a day after the "People power takes a big hit" piece.<br />
_________________<br />
UPDATE 2<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-48512413">The death toll in now over 60.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
A woman, identified only as Sulaima, told the BBC that troops from the Rapid Support Forces were "all over Khartoum".<br />
"They're
surrounding neighbourhoods, they're threatening people. They're also
using live ammunition. They're everywhere. We're not feeling safe and we
don't have trust in the security forces. It's complete chaos."</blockquote>
_________________<br />
UPDATE 3<br />
They are now pulling bodies out of Nile, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-48512413">with the death toll having reached 100 people</a>.<br />
<br />
Interestingly the State Department asked Saudi Arabia to intervene, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-48512413">leaving no doubt who is behind the coup</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The US state department voiced concerns on Tuesday over the violence to
Saudi Arabia - a key ally of Sudan's military rulers. A department
official telephoned the Saudi deputy defence minister Khalid Bin Salman
to stress the importance of a transition to a civilian-led government.</blockquote>
Khalid is MBS' brother, the guy who reassured Adnan Khashoggi to go to Turkey.Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com24tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-62143408176955929622019-06-02T19:20:00.002+02:002019-06-03T11:49:35.583+02:00Why Was There a Coup in Sudan After 30 Years?My oldest readers might remember that I started this blog because of my massive frustration with mainstream media platitudes about the Arab Spring. A self-immolating Tunisian street vendor forcing strongman Ben Ali to flee the country. Or Tahrir Square students overthrowing Hosni Mubarak.<br />
<br />
None of these symbolic acts explained what really happened but you wouldn't know that by simply reading to headline.<br />
<br />
I had a similar reaction when I first found about the ousting of Omar al-Bashir after 30 years in power. The mainstream narrative was that popular unrest and daily protests increased the pressure on the man and he was finally toppled by his own military.<br />
<br />
Once more, we were shown pictures of happy crowds, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/29/hemedti-the-feared-commander-pulling-the-strings-in-sudan">singing and dancing and marching with signs</a>.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6Odnm2izEQ0/XPPsK57fkYI/AAAAAAAACbk/IujuRJJsiIo3LWnYYAwr6ZASELr5XHjMACLcBGAs/s1600/Sudan%2Bprotesters.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="744" data-original-width="1240" height="384" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6Odnm2izEQ0/XPPsK57fkYI/AAAAAAAACbk/IujuRJJsiIo3LWnYYAwr6ZASELr5XHjMACLcBGAs/s640/Sudan%2Bprotesters.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/29/hemedti-the-feared-commander-pulling-the-strings-in-sudan">Sudanese protesters at the sit-in in Khartoum last week. Photograph: Amel Pain/EPA</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
And <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/04/protesters-sudan-and-algeria-have-learned-arab-spring/587113/">the narrative was that this was sufficient</a> to get rid of an indicted war criminal who killed, tortured, raped literally millions of people in Darfur and elsewhere. A ruthless autocrat who suppressed every protest violently during his blood-soaked reign.<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KT1gho-Ecak/XPPD94jEk4I/AAAAAAAACbY/aJ9K_ysyPywLLkIpzTdNvs_w9uwBtlqzwCLcBGAs/s1600/Omar%2Balbashir.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1200" height="213" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KT1gho-Ecak/XPPD94jEk4I/AAAAAAAACbY/aJ9K_ysyPywLLkIpzTdNvs_w9uwBtlqzwCLcBGAs/s320/Omar%2Balbashir.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20190224-is-the-30-year-rule-of-sudans-president-al-bashir-coming-to-an-end/">Omar al-Bashir</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
If it was that easy, why didn't they do it 20 years ago, 10 years ago, 5 years ago?<br />
<br />
Is it possible that this time the street chanting and sit-in protests was too much for his generals who told him that it was time to go.<br />
<br />
I decided to take look.<br />
<br />
Now, I admit that my knowledge of Sudan was fairly rudimentary.<br />
<br />
I knew that Bashir came to power in 1989 with a coup against an elected president.<br />
<br />
I knew that he oversaw the Islamization of the country by using the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hassan_Al-Turabi">ideological guidelines of Hassan Turabi</a>, a senior Muslim Brotherhood figure.<br />
<br />
I knew of the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-43170408">Nile conflict with Egypt and Ethiopia</a>.<br />
<br />
And I knew about his horrifying crimes in Darfur to grab their oil and to further subjugate black Africans (vs Arabs of the North).<br />
<br />
So it took me some digging. In the end, I uncovered a remarkable story which involved a complex regional power play by Turkey, Qatar on the one side and Saudi Arabia, Egypt and UAE on the other.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Suakin Island</span><br />
<br />
Omar al-Bashir was probably one of the most cynical rulers in the world. For instance, despite being a Sunni fundamentalist, when it suited him, he established close relationships with Iran, a rare Sunni/Shia alliance, which lasted until 2016.<br />
<br />
Then when he needed Saudi Arabia's money more, he cut-off Sudan's ties to Iran and offered Sudanese troops for the war in Yemen.<br />
<br />
Two years ago, he did something remarkable. He <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/suakin-forgotten-sudanese-island-becomes-focus-red-sea-rivalries">leased the Suakin island to Turkey for 99 years</a>. It didn't hurt that Erdogan was and is a staunch supporter of the Brotherhood. <a href="https://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/2019/04/26/turkey-to-remain-on-sudans-suakin-island-for-civilian-purposes">Nor Qatar's $4 billion dollar deal</a> to develop the port city was a hindrance.<br />
<br />
But the deal was a subtle reminder to Egypt that <a href="https://www.trtworld.com/africa/turkey-s-relationship-with-sudan-is-making-waves-in-the-red-sea-region-22013">Sudan had powerful friends and border disputes and conflict over Nile</a> could be addressed in a different manner.<br />
<br />
If you never heard of the island, you are in good company. The island is strategically placed as a historical port for Muslim pilgrims to reach Mecca.<br />
<br />
Now, Turkey claimed that it was going to renovate the island and return it to its former glory. But it soon became clear that it had more value as a military base. More importantly, a base that would connect <a href="https://www.worldbulletin.net/africa/sudan-s-suakin-reveal-the-location-for-turkish-military-base-h207207.html">the Turkish base in Qatar and the third one in Somalia</a>.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Xlts5C0xuIk/XPKmbszXAOI/AAAAAAAACbM/lMYsV8IWJOI9YlYo2U9rcJ_O2T87ppsngCLcBGAs/s1600/erdogan-in-sevakin-adasi-hamlesinin-ardindan-10390797_5258_m.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="647" data-original-width="640" height="400" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Xlts5C0xuIk/XPKmbszXAOI/AAAAAAAACbM/lMYsV8IWJOI9YlYo2U9rcJ_O2T87ppsngCLcBGAs/s400/erdogan-in-sevakin-adasi-hamlesinin-ardindan-10390797_5258_m.jpg" width="395" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<br />
When the deal was signed, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, taken by surprise, <a href="https://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/2019/04/26/turkey-to-remain-on-sudans-suakin-island-for-civilian-purposes">expressed their deep concerns</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
At the time, Turkey's deal caused concern on the international scene, particularly in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE, over allegations that Turkey was seeking to expand its military foothold in Africa, in the Gulf and the Red Sea.</blockquote>
Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the general who overthrew Mohamed Morsi, Egypt's former President affiliated with Muslim Brotherhood, was especially upset. Following the ousting of Morsi, Egypt's relations with Turkey became rather frosty and a war or words ensued between Erdogan and al-Sisi.<br />
<br />
Equally concerned was Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), the Saudi Crown Prince and de facto ruler of the Kingdom. He is suspicious of Turkish motives because of Erdogan's support for Muslim Brotherhood and his alliance with Qatar.<br />
<br />
A Sudanese analyst warned at the time that <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/suakin-forgotten-sudanese-island-becomes-focus-red-sea-rivalries">the Suakin deal was very dangerous</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"Turkey and Egypt, as well as Ethiopia and Eritrea, all have ambitions along Sudan's Red Sea coast, and the situation needs to be handled with great sensitivity," he said. (...)</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"Egypt already has a presence in the Halaib disputed area in the northern part of the Red Sea state, and now Turkey has a presence in Port Sudan and Suakin. That's really playing with fire," the analyst said.</blockquote>
With hindsight, prophetic warning to al-Bashir.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">The Squeeze Between Qatar And Saudi Arabia</span><br />
<br />
While the Suakin island deal was unfolding <a href="https://lobelog.com/the-geopolitics-of-sudans-transition-after-bashir/">Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE and Bahrain tried to bring Sudan</a> into their Anti-Terror Quartet (ATQ) but Sudan refused.<br />
<br />
Even though these were important donors for Sudan, Qatar was a big supporter of Muslim Brotherhood and that was a line al-Bashir would not cross.<br />
<br />
However, to appease MBS, he distanced himself from Iran and joined the Yemeni coalition.<br />
<br />
Omar al-Bashir was playing a high-risk balancing game trying to contain incompatible options. What brought it to a head was Sudan's precarious economy. In 2017 IMF asked the government to gradually <a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20180125-the-imf-role-in-sudans-bread-protests/">remove subsidies on food and fuel</a>.<br />
<br />
Unsurprisingly, <a href="https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/protests-as-sudan-lifts-fuel-subsidy">protests erupted</a> but he violently <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/sudan/b143-improving-prospects-peaceful-transition-sudan">suppressed them killing scores of civilians</a>.<br />
<br />
Despite the presence of Sudanese troops in Yemen, Saudi Arabia did not help him financially. <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20190421-saudi-uae-pledge-3-bn-financial-aid-sudan">Riyadh waited until his ousting to pledge $3 billion</a> to the new <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/05/saudi-arabia-sudan-uprising-omar-al-bashir">military government</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Within days of the removal of Bashir, Saudi’s purse strings loosened. Along with the UAE, it <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sudan-protests/saudi-arabia-uae-to-send-3-billion-in-aid-to-sudan-idUSKCN1RX0DG">pledged a $3</a><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sudan-protests/saudi-arabia-uae-to-send-3-billion-in-aid-to-sudan-idUSKCN1RX0DG">bn </a><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sudan-protests/saudi-arabia-uae-to-send-3-billion-in-aid-to-sudan-idUSKCN1RX0DG">aid package</a> to prop up Sudan’s economy and thus the transitional military government.</blockquote>
<a href="https://www.thenational.ae/world/africa/why-there-is-no-room-for-qatar-in-post-uprising-sudan-1.857605">Curiously, Qatar refused to help as well</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The Sudanese president, who was ousted by the military on April 11, visited Doha in late January in hopes of getting financial support to ease economic conditions that had triggered more than a month of protests. He received only an offer of political asylum, according to sources.</blockquote>
The Emir must have sensed that the jig was up and there was no way to prop up al-Bashir's government.<br />
<br />
As for the dictator himself, my guess is that, strapped for cash, he was contemplating a partial pull <a href="http://french.almanar.com.lb/1322598">out of Yemen</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
L’Arabie saoudite (...) vise effectivement à bénéficier de l’absence
d’Omar el-Béchir, qui s’opposait à l’engagement militaire « trop vaste »
de son pays dans les conflits au Yémen.</blockquote>
Even though he denied such plans, he seems to have failed <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/sudanese-troops-will-remain-in-yemen-al-bashir/1342396">to convince UAE and the Kingdom</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
According to some analysts, al-Bashir’s recent visit to Damascus suggests that Khartoum is distancing itself from the Saudi/UAE axis.</blockquote>
According to Al-Binna, a Lebanese journal, <a href="http://french.almanar.com.lb/1322598">the coup instructions came from MBS himself.</a> who hosted the vice president and the first coup leader, Awad Ibn Auf after al-Bashir's removal.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Le coup d’État au Soudan a eu lieu très probablement suite à une série
de coordinations entre le prince saoudien Mohammed ben Salmane et le
ministre soudanais de la Défense Aouad Ibn Aouf qui s’était rendu,
quelques jours auparavant avant le coup de force, à Riyad pour prendre
part à une réunion de “l’OTAN arabe”.</blockquote>
The protesters clamored because of Ibn Auf's closeness to al-Bashir. Shockingly, within 24 hours he resigned. Even more shockingly, his replacement, Salah Abdallah Mohamed Saleh (Salah Gosh) also lasted 24 hours. The third guy was Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN1RS2DP">Do you know who he is?</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
As chief of Sudan’s ground forces he oversaw Sudanese troops fighting in the Saudi-led Yemen war and has close ties to senior Gulf military officials.</blockquote>
<a href="https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN1RS2DP">Moreover,</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
A Sudanese source close to Sudan’s military leadership said the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt had a role in planning “the removal of Bashir and General Ibn Auf and Salah Gosh” as part of a strategy of “weakening the power of the Islamists in power in Sudan”.</blockquote>
By Islamists, they mean Muslim Brotherhood.<br />
<br />
Given this background, the first thing the new generals did was to <a href="https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/04/16/593538/Sudan-forces-soldiers-troops-Yemen-war">reassure Saudi Arabia and Gulf countries</a> that Sudan would continue to provide troops to the war in Yemen.<br />
<br />
Then Burhan tweeted that Suakin was an <a href="https://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/2019/04/26/turkey-to-remain-on-sudans-suakin-island-for-civilian-purposes">"inseparable part of Sudan."</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"Its value cannot be measured with a material price, its history cannot be sold. We emphasize that we care about the sovereignty of our territories. We will not accept the presence of a foreign military existence in Sudan," Burhan added.</blockquote>
<a href="https://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/2019/04/26/turkey-to-remain-on-sudans-suakin-island-for-civilian-purposes">Turkey tried to downplay the statement</a> but the implication was clear.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-S0J-z_8fJEg/XPQEXB4K9bI/AAAAAAAACb4/pW_lYGcnpkEXWSQgjtcUGQlTluuGFM9rACLcBGAs/s1600/burhan.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="371" data-original-width="660" height="359" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-S0J-z_8fJEg/XPQEXB4K9bI/AAAAAAAACb4/pW_lYGcnpkEXWSQgjtcUGQlTluuGFM9rACLcBGAs/s640/burhan.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjCgNKmpsviAhWu1eAKHQS2ARIQjhx6BAgBEAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Fworld-africa-47918736&psig=AOvVaw3UXSY0wWW2c-6N4Ad87yyV&ust=1559582120025306">Burhan</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
A week ago, Burhan's deputy Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, aka Hemedti, affirmed that Sudan would back <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20190524-sudan-general-vows-back-saudi-against-iran-threats">Saudi Arabia against Iranian threats</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, the deputy chief of Sudan's transitional military council, met with Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah, the official Saudi Press Agency reported earlier in the day.<br />
<br />
"Sudan is standing with the kingdom against all threats and attacks from Iran and Huthi militias," Dagalo, widely known as Himeidti, told the crown prince during their meeting, the council said in a statement.</blockquote>
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-eP2OfsLherM/XPQD8oFZ2lI/AAAAAAAACbw/vi3FUDvyjhQYi9HHXWC2HyRWhIKWBJG3ACLcBGAs/s1600/hemedti.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="330" data-original-width="620" height="170" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-eP2OfsLherM/XPQD8oFZ2lI/AAAAAAAACbw/vi3FUDvyjhQYi9HHXWC2HyRWhIKWBJG3ACLcBGAs/s320/hemedti.jpg" width="320" /></a>Incidentally, Hemedti is a dark figure <a href="https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN1RS2DP">who heads the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The RSF is a paramilitary grouping that grew out of the Janjaweed militias that fought in Darfur and has provided troops to fight in Yemen.</blockquote>
Besides its role in killing and raping in Darfur and Yemen, RSF is the main paramilitary group that al-Bashir used to suppress uprisings.<br />
<br />
And now he has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/29/hemedti-the-feared-commander-pulling-the-strings-in-sudan">MBS' total support and approval.</a><br />
<br />
When you look at the whole picture, what took place in Sudan was not <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sudan-politics-arabs/arab-spring-comes-later-in-sudan-and-algeria-idUSKCN1RQ0B4">Arab Spring 2 as some media outlets claimed</a>.<br />
<br />
MBS moved to have the last regime that had Muslim Brotherhood as its base overthrown and replaced its president with more malleable generals who will continue to help him in his murderous Yemeni campaign. And Egypt got rid of a ruler who could have posed too many problems.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN1RS2DP">They won.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The influence of their regional rivals Qatar and Turkey, which both had ties to Bashir, will be limited, said the Sudanese military officer. “It was a tug of war, and right now UAE and Saudi won,” he said.</blockquote>
Ostensibly, the losing side is Turkey and Qatar.<br />
<br />
But I wouldn't count them out yet. The battle in Sudan might be lost but the wider war is still in play. And I don't even mean this metaphorically.<br />
<br />
MBS' war in Yemen is unwinnable and it will ruin the Kingdom financially. He is also less and less able to inject cash into client states like Egypt and soon they will feel the squeeze.<br />
<br />
On the Turkish side, the economic picture is not any better. But it has other options like teaming up with Iran and Russia, changing its regional priorities and adopting a softer approach towards Kurds and Syria.<br />
<br />
Time will tell.<br />
<br />
We live in interesting but scary dangerous times.Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-3517671149650123622019-05-25T11:37:00.001+02:002019-05-25T11:37:49.252+02:00Tanker Attacks in the Gulf: In Search of a Casus Belli?When I heard about four Saudi tankers that sustained "serious damage" I immediately thought that something was rotten in the state of Denmark.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">An Act of Sabotage by Iran or a Hastily Made Up Casus Belli?</span><br />
<br />
Let's take a look at the main elements of the story.<br />
<br />
First, there were no pictures initially. We had no idea what Saudi Arabia meant by serious damage. <a href="https://www.rt.com/news/459253-footage-extent-damage-tankers/">Then a short footage from RT Arabic</a> emerged showing a rather small hole at the flat transom stern of a Norwegian-flagged tanker.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48245204">Saudi TV showed some pictures apparently</a> but nothing close up or specific.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48264499">BBC reported subsequently</a> that the Norwegian company in question said that their tanker was struck by an unknown object.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VpU4pSs12GI/XN7Cv9_o-XI/AAAAAAAACa0/uQ94_Knvewshi_TRgo13kLkzBRvRbEchACLcBGAs/s1600/Saudi%2Btanker%2B01.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1134" data-original-width="925" height="640" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VpU4pSs12GI/XN7Cv9_o-XI/AAAAAAAACa0/uQ94_Knvewshi_TRgo13kLkzBRvRbEchACLcBGAs/s640/Saudi%2Btanker%2B01.jpg" width="521" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<a href="https://www.rt.com/news/459253-footage-extent-damage-tankers/">This is the RT clip showing the extent of the damage</a>:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.blogger.com/video.g?token=AD6v5dzC4wmA2IZzXGLAuW3c0X2lA9qIYM76j-J7Bh3TOEtmOXgWpROFT4vT8mnjTqI-lH2QbdKujHSrNh46PRdbAg' class='b-hbp-video b-uploaded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>
<br />
<br />
Second, there were no injuries, no deaths, no sunken ships and no oil spilled. And <a href="https://www.rt.com/news/459253-footage-extent-damage-tankers/">there were no explosions.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Though the UAE maintained that the four ships were damaged by sabotage, local authorities at Fujairah denied media reports of explosions at the harbor.</blockquote>
Somehow, mysterious figures silently made four little holes in Saudi tankers and no one had seen or heard anything.<br />
<br />
Of course, that did not prevent <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-48404141">media outlets from reporting explosions</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Tensions rose this month after shipping in the Gulf of Oman was damaged by a series of mystery explosions. </blockquote>
Third, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48264499">Lloyd's of London complained</a> that Saudi authorities didn't share any visuals with them and provided no additional information.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Global maritime news website have questioned the details surrounding
the incident. The influential Lloyds List Maritime Intelligence, for
example, criticised the authorities for "scant" information. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Quoting
the maritime security company Dryad Global, it said: "Saudi reticence
to report the incident accurately within their own media channels and
the current failure to provide imagery evidence of the attack raises
important questions as to the nature of the attack."</blockquote>
This struck me especially odd since Lloyd's is the biggest reinsurance company in the world. If you wanted someone to pay for those damages you would have to come forward. Why would you hide such details?<br />
<br />
Fourth, American experts examined the tankers and determined with 24 hours that this was the act of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48264499">Iranian authorities or militias working with Iran</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The team of US military investigators discovered large holes in all
four of the affected ships and believe they were caused by explosive
charges, the Associated Press reports, quoting an unnamed official. They
did not explain how the damage was linked to Iran. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<a class="story-body__link-external" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-news-sabotage-tankers-fujairah-us-donald-trump-warns-iran-live-updates-2019-05-14/">CBS carried a similar report</a> quoting unnamed US officials. </blockquote>
They can't even analyze the contents of a plane's black box for a couple of weeks. It takes weeks to analyse the explosive residue of a device and to get other forensic details right. Here, they took a quick look at the holes and they knew right away that it was made by an Iranian device, case closed.<br />
<br />
Fifth, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/15/world/middleeast/iran-war-usa.html">New York Times reported</a> that intelligence sources shared with their reporters a picture of a small boat that belonged to Iranian paramilitary forces carrying missiles. The paper added that John Bolton, Trump's national security advisor and secretary of state Mike Pompeo used this picture as proof of Iran's belligerent intentions.<br />
<br />
Finally, let's think for a minute. Because when it comes to Iran no one seems to be able to do that.<br />
<br />
Let's assume Iran was behind this. Let's say they sent some commando units to make small holes in Saudi tankers while being careful not to spill any oil and damage the ships significantly. And they did so without any explosives.<br />
<br />
Why would they do something like that? What do they have to gain by provoking the US and its highly unstable president? What do four small holes in Saudi tankers achieve? Is this really a deterrent? Or sign of Iranian superiority? What did they gain with such a stunt?<br />
<br />
In short, I don't believe for a minute that this hastily arranged clumsy plot was something Iran cooked up. The evidence is not there, the act has no deterrent value to anyone and it makes no sense for them to goad Trump at this juncture for little or no gain.<br />
<br />
Then who did it?<br />
<br />
Let's see who might benefit from this.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">The Three Amigos</span><br />
<br />
There are three people who might benefit from heightened hostilities between Iran and the US.<br />
<br />
The first is the Orange Man.<br />
<br />
As you know, Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action">Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action</a> (JCPOA) even though his own intelligence agencies determined that <a href="https://www.axios.com/intelligence-chiefs-donald-trump-iran-nuclear-deal-0333ce3b-dd4e-4928-8753-447b98cedcc4.html">Iran was largely in compliance of the treaty</a>. His frequent and <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/defense/429471-trump-tweets-in-persian-to-send-message-to-iran-on-revolutions-anniversary">highly belligerent attacks</a> on Iran is helping the conservative clergy to regain some of their lost popularity. The sanctions he imposed is hurting ordinary Iranians, ensuring the demise of moderates in the next elections.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-48307445">Trump sent out aides</a> to tell gullible reporters that he did not want any war with Iran and the following day he threatened to wipe the entire country out (which earned him <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-48338168">an elegant rebuke from Zarif</a>).<br />
<br />
A confrontation with Iran would be a highly beneficial for Trump as it would allow him to change the subject and set the agenda.<br />
<br />
You see, he is in a serious struggle with the House of Representatives to make sure that the Democrats do not have access to his tax returns and his shady dealings.<br />
<br />
People assume that Steve Mnuchin refusing to comply with a congressional subpoena would be enough to shield him from scrutiny. It won't be. New York State is prepared to send all they have to the committee. And that could prove to be very damaging for Trump who almost certainly laundred hundreds of millions of dollars for Russian crime outfits in the last two decades.<br />
<br />
A hot confrontation with the demonized mullahs would make wonders for his popularity, as Democrats, afraid to be labeled unpatriotic, would stop these investigations to present a united front with him. (Which is something the Republicans would never do but that is another story)<br />
<br />
The second beneficiary is Bibi Netanyahu and for similar reasons.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/09/is-netanyahu-on-his-way-out.html">As I explained previously</a>, there are a number of serious corruption cases about him, his wife and several people close to him. In the sound and fury of Israeli elections, most media outlets lost track of the <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/israels-attorney-general-moves-forward-netanyahus-indictment-what-happens-next">attorney general's announcement of his decision</a> to consider indicting the prime minister. He declared, in any event, that there was enough evidence to do so. Which is bigly.<br />
<br />
Avichai Mandelblit, a Netanyahu appointee, probably left it that so as not to be accused of influencing electoral process, though <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/israels-attorney-general-moves-forward-netanyahus-indictment-what-happens-next">some observers suggested that Netanyahu</a> actually called the elections to stop Mandelblit from indicting him right away. He knew that the dossier was completed last November and an indictment was being discussed in December.<br />
<br />
That brings me to the timetable question.<br />
<br />
The Attorney General will announce his decision in the coming months. A hearing will be held and after that the decision to indict will be rendered. <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/israels-attorney-general-moves-forward-netanyahus-indictment-what-happens-next">In Israel a sitting prime minister can be indicted</a>. Previously, when Yitzhak Rabin and Ehud Olmert were indicted, they resigned voluntarily but if Netanyahu decides to stay in office no one knows whether this is acceptable or not as there is no precedent.<br />
<br />
The case will likely be reviewed by the Supreme Court and therein lies his problem.<br />
<br />
The Supreme Court's <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Esther_Hayut">Chief Justice is Esther Hayut</a>, a brilliant and independent jurist. Netanyahu tried <a href="http://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/09/is-netanyahu-on-his-way-out.html">very hard to stop her appointment but failed</a>. He now wants the Justice Minister select the <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israeli-justice-minister-presents-plan-for-lawmakers-to-appoint-top-justices-1.7027967">Supreme Court judges with the cabinet and Knesset giving their stamp of approval</a>.<br />
<br />
And Netanyahu will also try to change the law <a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/05/israel-benjamin-netanyahu-likud-blue-and-white-coalition.html">about the immunity of Knesset members</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Netanyahu is expected to be indicted pending a hearing. If Netanyahu
can’t get out of the hearing, and if after that hearing Attorney General
Avichai Mandelblit decides not to indict him, I can only assume that
there will be a big legal battle, culminating in an appeal to the
Supreme Court over an unreasonable decision.</blockquote>
<span style="background-color: white;"><a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/05/israel-benjamin-netanyahu-likud-blue-and-white-coalition.html">The new government might even try to limit the authority of the Supreme Court</a> something the current justice minister from the conservative HaBayit HaYehudi party was itching to do.</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
On the other hand, if the new Netanyahu government rushes to amend the
law pertaining to the immunity of Knesset members, or if, in the name of
“government reform,” it tries some other ploy, it will be necessary to
appeal to the millions of people who voted against Netanyahu in the last
April election.</blockquote>
But all of this will take time. He hasn't even formed the government. So Netanyahu has every incentive to use "I am your big daddy and I can protect you from the big bad wolf" card that served him well so far. Heightened hostilities would really work for him.<br />
<br />
The third beneficiary if Mohammed bin Salman, whose name is typically abbreviated to sound like a graduate degree program (MBS).<br />
<br />
His troubles in the aftermath of the Adnan Khashoggi merder are well documented. He faces a lot of resistance from other royal family members.<br />
<br />
His international standing and the carefully cultivated reformist prince image are badly damaged. The war in Yemen is going badly and the royal treasury is hemorrhaging billions because of his adventures.<br />
<br />
Of the three, my money is on him. The ineptitude of the sabotage also points the finger to Saudi operatives. My guess is that he was and is counting on Netanyahu goading Trump into bombing Iran into oblivion as they both have something to gain from such confrontation.<br />
<br />
After an initial vacillation, Trump has hardened his rhetoric and ordered that 1500 troops sent to the region in addition to an <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-48404141">aircraft carrier and bomber planes</a>.<br />
<br />
So the question is, will this silly plot to incriminate Iran lead to an actual war.<br />
<br />
It actually might.<br />
<br />
With all three players having a lot to gain from a conflict and Mike Pompeo and John Bolton pushing for a regime change in Iran, all it would take is a misunderstanding or another "act of sabotage" under murky circumstances, such as a small boat firing at a US ship, and you could have a major war.<br />
<br />
I think the photo shared with the New York Times was there for a reason.<br />
<br />
And now Trump used this incident to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-48404923">bypass Congress to sell arms to Saudi Arabia</a>.<br />
<br />
Consider me worried.Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-15641837861447535482019-04-27T13:56:00.002+02:002019-04-28T12:14:01.716+02:00Did Saudi Arabia Hack Jeff Bezos' Phone And Did They Use Israeli Technology?These are not easy questions as there is no smoking gun.<br />
<br />
But unlike Robert Mueller, who would only conclude collusion if he had a contract signed by Putin and Trump, I am quite happy to use my black hole method and look at events and actions surrounding the allegations. If they constitute a reasonable explanatory pattern then the black hole exists.<br />
<br />
On that basis, the answer is "very likely" on both counts.<br />
<br />
Now if you thought the Khashoggi murder sounded like a spy novel, this one is a techno-thriller with some high-level finance mixed in.<br />
<br />
Let me explain.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Mohammed Bin Salman</span><br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-03kTyDCO4eA/XMLWB63hr4I/AAAAAAAACZs/8-K1BP_FrtEAXQ4ZwBA_Z3NDiwAit8-WgCLcBGAs/s1600/mohammed-bin-salman.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="439" data-original-width="780" height="180" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-03kTyDCO4eA/XMLWB63hr4I/AAAAAAAACZs/8-K1BP_FrtEAXQ4ZwBA_Z3NDiwAit8-WgCLcBGAs/s320/mohammed-bin-salman.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiH98eav-3hAhW55OAKHeVhCC8Qjhx6BAgBEAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbc.ca%2Fradio%2Fday6%2Fepisode-412-tourism-for-tokers-saudi-prince-under-scrutiny-how-to-kill-a-tv-character-april-ryan-and-more-1.4869003%2Fkhashoggi-s-death-casts-a-new-light-on-mohammed-bin-salman-s-dark-side-1.4869027&psig=AOvVaw3s9b-lYzZNBOXB9_8VFfFs&ust=1556358963673756">Mohammed Bin Salman</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2018/10/mohammed-bin-salman-and-serious.html">If you read my take</a> on the <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2018/11/why-was-jamal-khashoggi-killed.html">Jamal Khashoggi murder</a> and my previous posts about <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/12/mohammed-bin-salman-and-bleak-future-of.html">the bleak future of Saudi Arabia</a>, you already know that the Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, commonly known as MBS, is a character out of a Shakespearean play.<br />
<br />
He is bigger than life, volatile, obsessive and ruthless.<br />
<br />
Ever since <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/18/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-mohammed-bin-nayef-mohammed-bin-salman.html?module=inline">he pushed aside the previous Crown Prince</a>, MBS has been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/17/world/middleeast/khashoggi-crown-prince-saudi.html">torturing, detaining and killing scores of people</a> for anything big or small as long as what they did or say displeased him.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Saudi security forces have detained dozens of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/14/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-clerics.html?module=inline">clerics, intellectuals and activists</a> who were perceived to pose a threat, as well as people who had posted critical or sarcastic comments about the government on Twitter. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“We’ve never seen it on a scale like this,” said Bruce Riedel, a former C.I.A. analyst now with the Brookings Institution. </blockquote>
To achieve his goal to completely control social discourse in the Kingdom, one of the first things MBS did was to form what the American intelligence agencies call the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/17/world/middleeast/khashoggi-crown-prince-saudi.html">Rapid Intervention Group</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The Rapid Intervention Group was authorized by Prince Mohammed and overseen by Saud al-Qahtani, a top aide whose official job was media czar at the royal court, American officials said. His deputy, Maher Abdulaziz Mutreb, an intelligence officer who has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/16/world/middleeast/khashoggi-saudi-prince.html?module=inline">traveled abroad with the crown prince</a>, led the team in the field.</blockquote>
One of Saud al-Qahtani's responsibilities was to bring the <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-the-saudis-made-jeff-bezos-public-enemy-1?ref=scroll">Twitter network, Saudi Arabia's primary outlet for political dissent, under MBS' control.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Twitter is huge in Saudi Arabia—the country boasts one of the world’s highest rates of Twitter penetration. Because Saudi Arabia lacks a free press, and bans political parties and NGOs, Saudi citizens took to Twitter as their only outlet to discuss public matters. By 2015, Twitter had become the premier hangout of Saudi intellectuals, a critical public sphere often called “The Parliament of the Arabs.”</blockquote>
<a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-the-saudis-made-jeff-bezos-public-enemy-1?ref=scroll">He achieved this goal after a violent and sustained campaign.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
By the end of 2018, MBS’ conquest of Twitter was complete: Prominent independent tweeters were in jail, in exile, compromised by blackmail, intimidated into silence—or dead. No longer was there such a thing as an independent voice within Saudi Arabia—you had to either stop being independent, stop having a voice, or stop being in Saudi Arabia. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Saudi Twitter is now presided over by a closely controlled network of pro-government accounts—political messages posted on it represent government-promoted narratives, not independent opinion.</blockquote>
Besides silencing dissent, this total control over social media outlets enables MBS to organize concerted attack on a number of political targets and whip up public outrage whenever it suits him.<br />
<br />
In short, MBS weaponized the Saudi Twitter space very effectively.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Twitter Trolls Attacking "Jew" Bezos</span><br />
<br />
When Khashoggi was murdered and the Washington Post started asking for the Crown Prince be held accountable, MBS launched a call to boycott Amazon on 15 October 2018.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pJXb9gUuFMY/XLMDKR3moUI/AAAAAAAACZA/mN_k92qMHiQfnUjKSVT0CEP2HQe6QZ-YQCLcBGAs/s1600/MBS%2BTweet.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="807" data-original-width="987" height="261" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pJXb9gUuFMY/XLMDKR3moUI/AAAAAAAACZA/mN_k92qMHiQfnUjKSVT0CEP2HQe6QZ-YQCLcBGAs/s320/MBS%2BTweet.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
(“<a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-the-saudis-made-jeff-bezos-public-enemy-1?ref=scroll">To the people of the Great Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: The leftist Jeff Bezos is the owner of The Washington Post, the newspaper of evil and betrayal… we have to defend our country and boycott Amazon.”</a>)<br />
<br />
By early November, there was a concerted anti-Bezos campaign on Saudi Twitter orchestrated by government controlled accounts. <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-the-saudis-made-jeff-bezos-public-enemy-1?ref=scroll">Under "Boycott Amazon" hashtag one tweet read</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“We as Saudis will never accept to be attacked by The Washington Post in the morning, only to buy products from Amazon and Souq.com by night! Strange that all three companies are owned by the same Jew [sic] who attacks us by day, and sells us products by night!”</blockquote>
The anti-semitic attacks continued even though Bezos is not Jewish. This one had "The Jew: Jeff Bezos" as its caption.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jVwsxJrmOJo/XLMJi1UeVyI/AAAAAAAACZM/oVz3FtaxP88snuWAVp7wFqjZPVF0wJYXQCLcBGAs/s1600/Tweet%2BMBS02.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="953" data-original-width="974" height="312" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jVwsxJrmOJo/XLMJi1UeVyI/AAAAAAAACZM/oVz3FtaxP88snuWAVp7wFqjZPVF0wJYXQCLcBGAs/s320/Tweet%2BMBS02.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
There are too many messages calling him "<a href="https://twitter.com/9mtalro7/status/1062550800268816385">the hateful filth</a>" and other slurs.<br />
<br />
Then, according to Daily Beast (or <a href="https://redirect.viglink.com/?format=go&jsonp=vglnk_155525843594711&key=d6fb52ca9ca534018a552e655b556f31&libId=juh4ioax0101k4gl000DAbof18w29&loc=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedailybeast.com%2Fhow-the-saudis-made-jeff-bezos-public-enemy-1%3Fref%3Dscroll&v=1&out=https%3A%2F%2Farabtyrantmanual.com%2F&ref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F&title=How%20the%20Saudis%20Made%20Jeff%20Bezos%20Public%20Enemy%20No.%201&txt=our%20website">more correctly to this site</a>) after this troll outburst, there was a period of relative tranquility.<br />
<br />
It turns out it was the calm before the storm, as MBS was given a potent weapon with which he thought he could destroy Bezos.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Enquiring Minds Want To Know</span><br />
<br />
On 10 September, Michael Sanchez, the brother of Jeff Bezos' paramour Lauren Sanchez, gave the National Enquirer copies of text messages exchanged by the couple. They contained some adolescent love declarations and would have made good tabloid copy.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-V0suFIKqN70/XMLXBUtxesI/AAAAAAAACZ0/hPGS3OyBYlMQik0UGR98jpvpjfED3qNkQCLcBGAs/s1600/jeff-bezos-lauren-sanchez-national-enquirer.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1272" data-original-width="1600" height="507" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-V0suFIKqN70/XMLXBUtxesI/AAAAAAAACZ0/hPGS3OyBYlMQik0UGR98jpvpjfED3qNkQCLcBGAs/s640/jeff-bezos-lauren-sanchez-national-enquirer.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwic67zxv-3hAhVuAWMBHRDvCtYQjhx6BAgBEAM&url=http%3A%2F%2Ftime.com%2F5526804%2Fmichael-sanchez-jeff-bezos-girlfriend-brother%2F&psig=AOvVaw32P8R9n8dPQWxqtjmT7O61&ust=1556359149841734">Michael Sanchez, Lauren Sanchez and Jeff Bezos</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Curiously, National Enquirer did not use the material and sat on it for four months risking a scoop by a rival publication. Curiouser still for a publication struggling <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-12/before-bezos-fight-enquirer-publisher-ami-faced-steep-losses">with a $1.3 billion debt</a> and <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-the-saudis-made-jeff-bezos-public-enemy-1?ref=scroll">losing $70 million a year</a>.<br />
<br />
It turns out they thought of a way to make more money out of this than to sell a few more copies to bored supermarket checkout customers. It is quite likely that they took the material to MBS for a bigger payday.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qYQWFTzledM/XMLX98VWoTI/AAAAAAAACZ8/qJGWkkexircfk9p5KpDvQ17ur08sESLTwCLcBGAs/s1600/Pecker.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1600" height="160" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qYQWFTzledM/XMLX98VWoTI/AAAAAAAACZ8/qJGWkkexircfk9p5KpDvQ17ur08sESLTwCLcBGAs/s320/Pecker.jpeg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiEwfyCwe3hAhUID2MBHYMDBaQQjhx6BAgBEAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Fextranewsfeed.com%2Fthe-hilarious-enquirer-blackmail-scandal-and-jeff-bezos-vs-david-pecker-7ca5575ced1&psig=AOvVaw09pBTEUQQb9xl8VdY40gg5&ust=1556359419886977">Bezos exposes Pecker</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
You see, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Pecker">David Pecker</a>, the aptly named CEO of National Enquirer's parent company AMI, had a previous arrangement with MBS.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-the-saudis-made-jeff-bezos-public-enemy-1?ref=scroll">In July 2017, Pecker's agent </a>Ari Emanuel (yes, <a href="http://www.historyvshollywood.com/reelfaces/entourage/">of Entourage fame</a> and brother of Rahm) <a href="https://redirect.viglink.com/?format=go&jsonp=vglnk_155585604797112&key=d6fb52ca9ca534018a552e655b556f31&libId=juqoknp10101k4gl000DAbpyzgdtz&loc=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedailybeast.com%2Fhow-the-saudis-made-jeff-bezos-public-enemy-1%3Fref%3Dscroll&v=1&out=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2018%2F03%2F29%2Fbusiness%2Fmedia%2Fdavid-pecker-trump-saudi-arabia.html&ref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F&title=How%20the%20Saudis%20Made%20Jeff%20Bezos%20Public%20Enemy%20No.%201&txt=introduces">introduced </a>Pecker to an MBS intermediary Kacy Grine.<br />
<br />
Right after that, <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-the-saudis-made-jeff-bezos-public-enemy-1?ref=scroll">Pecker took Grine</a> to the White House to meet Trump and Jared Kushner. <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-the-saudis-made-jeff-bezos-public-enemy-1?ref=scroll">In September 2017</a>, Grine got MBS to invite Pecker to Saudi Arabia.<br />
<br />
In March 2018, <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-the-saudis-made-jeff-bezos-public-enemy-1?ref=scroll">to mark MBS' official visit to the US</a>, "AMI prints and nationally distributes 200,000 copies of “The New Kingdom”—an expensive 97-page glossy containing no ads. Its sole topic is how MBS is changing the world for the better."<br />
<br />
Later in March, the day the MBS tour began, <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-the-saudis-made-jeff-bezos-public-enemy-1?ref=scroll">Emanuel received a $400 million</a> investment from the Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund.<br />
<br />
After Michael Sanchez gave National Enquirer his sister's text messages in September, there was a four-month period of complete radio silence. Then early in January the Enquirer published a special mid-week edition with a 12 page insert on Jeff Bezos.<br />
<br />
The day before the issue hit the newsstands <a href="https://redirect.viglink.com/?format=go&jsonp=vglnk_155635609570011&key=d6fb52ca9ca534018a552e655b556f31&libId=juz9kojt0101k4gl000DAbp7x2z3g&loc=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedailybeast.com%2Fhow-the-saudis-made-jeff-bezos-public-enemy-1%3Fref%3Dscroll&v=1&out=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.prnewswire.com%2Fnews-releases%2Famerican-media-llc-completes-460-million-refinancing-300775574.html&ref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F&title=How%20the%20Saudis%20Made%20Jeff%20Bezos%20Public%20Enemy%20No.%201&txt=announces">AMI announced</a> that it had<i><a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-the-saudis-made-jeff-bezos-public-enemy-1?ref=scroll">“successfully completed the refinancing of all outstanding debt.”</a> </i>But it did not divulge who put up the money to save the company.<br />
<br />
When <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/jeff-bezos-investigation-finds-the-saudis-obtained-his-private-information?ref=scroll">Jeff Bezos asked security consultant Gavin de Becker to find out</a> who passed on the material to National Enquirer something very strange happened. AMI contacted Bezos and de Becker and informed them that they had pictures of Bezos' penis (apparently taken from his phone) and would publish them unless they signed a contract denying that any hacking of Bezos' cell phone had taken place.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/jeff-bezos-investigation-finds-the-saudis-obtained-his-private-information?ref=scroll">De Becker:</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
An eight-page contract AMI sent for me and Bezos to sign would have required that I make a public statement, composed by them and then widely disseminated, saying that my investigation had concluded they hadn’t relied upon “any form of electronic eavesdropping or hacking in their news-gathering process.” </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Note here that I’d never publicly said anything about electronic eavesdropping or hacking—and they wanted to be sure I couldn’t.</blockquote>
After a thorough investigation Gavin de Becker concluded that Jeff Bezos' phone was hacked by Saudi agents, in a effort to blackmail and control him.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
That investigation is now complete. As has been reported elsewhere, my results have been turned over to federal officials. Since it is now out of my hands, I intend today’s writing to be my last public statement on the matter. Further, to respect officials pursuing this case, I won’t disclose details from our investigation. I am, however, comfortable confirming one key fact:<br />
<br />
<b><i>Our investigators and several experts concluded with high confidence that the Saudis had access to Bezos’ phone, and gained private information. As of today, it is unclear to what degree, if any, AMI was aware of the details</i>.</b></blockquote>
What is interesting is the fact that AMI asked de Becker and Bezos to publicly deny that there was any foreign involvement and that any hacking had taken place <i>before the De Becker investigation. </i>That preemptive request was backed by the threat of publishing Bezos' penis pictures taken from his phone.<br />
<br />
This would only make sense if they were trying to protect the Saudis and <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/jeff-bezos-investigation-finds-the-saudis-obtained-his-private-information?ref=scroll">were willing to give up the penis pictures to achieve that goal.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
They also wanted me to say our investigation had concluded that their Bezos story was not “instigated, dictated or influenced in any manner by external forces, political or otherwise.” External forces? Such a strange phrase. </blockquote>
<a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-the-saudis-made-jeff-bezos-public-enemy-1?ref=scroll">One final piece of the financial puzzle: </a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Weeks ago, David Pecker’s CFO <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-12/before-bezos-fight-enquirer-publisher-ami-faced-steep-losses">told</a> reporters at Bloomberg News that AMI has again been saved, this time by “several new investors that came into the fold.” Though he would not name the investors, he added: </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“There is no direct investment in the company’s debt or equity by the Saudis.”</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Rarely has the word “direct” caused a statement to be so indirect.</blockquote>
It is clear that David Pecker went after Jeff Bezos in order to help the Crown Prince to silence Washington Post's Khashoggi coverage and AMI was handsomely rewarded for its efforts.<br />
<br />
The question then is how did the Saudis manage to hack Bezos' phone. The man is the CEO of Amazon and he is likely to be very security conscious.<br />
<br />
Enter NSO Group an Israeli firm that developed a spyware capable of accessing the content of any phone without leaving a trace.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Did NSO Group Help Saudis Hack Bezos' Phone?</span><br />
<br />
In his only op-ed after the investigation, Gavin de Becker did not name NSO Group but linked to a New York Times investigative piece about NSO Group, DarkMatter and Black Cube, companies conducting <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/21/us/politics/government-hackers-nso-darkmatter.html">cyber warfare on behalf of authoritarian regimes.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
By 2011, NSO had developed its first prototype, a mobile surveillance tool the company called Pegasus. Like its namesake, the Greek mythological winged horse, NSO’s tool could do something seemingly impossible: collect vast amounts of previously inaccessible data from smartphones in the air without leaving a trace — including phone calls, texts, emails, contacts, location and any data transmitted over apps like Facebook, WhatsApp and Skype. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“Once these companies invade your phone, they own it. You’re just carrying it around,” Avi Rosen of Kaymera Technologies, an Israeli cyberdefense company, said of NSO and its competitors.</blockquote>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-mEGvtHf77sg/XMQ_busjGwI/AAAAAAAACaI/rh9K5XDalv4kkpHipqs10QClsr1lWLrowCLcBGAs/s1600/NSO%2Bgroup.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="960" height="425" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-mEGvtHf77sg/XMQ_busjGwI/AAAAAAAACaI/rh9K5XDalv4kkpHipqs10QClsr1lWLrowCLcBGAs/s640/NSO%2Bgroup.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/21/us/politics/government-hackers-nso-darkmatter.html">Omri Lavie, left, and Shalev Hulio, founded NSO and have tapped into technology developed by graduates of Intelligence Unit 8200, Israel’s equivalent of the National Security Agency.</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
NSO was accused by several dissidents of providing MBS access to their cell phones and there are even some reports that the team that murdered Jamal Khashoggi <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-okayed-sale-of-pegasus-phone-spying-tool-to-saudi-arabia-report/">monitored his whereabouts using Pegasus.</a> The same allegation is made in <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-how-saudi-arabia-could-have-hacked-cell-phone-2019-3?IR=T">a recent lawsuit against the company.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
While helping Mexico catch drug criminals is within NSO Group's stated mission, the company is at the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/02/world/middleeast/saudi-khashoggi-spyware-israel.html?module=inline">center of a lawsuit</a> which alleges its technology was used by Saudi Arabia to spy on journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who was murdered at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October 2018.</blockquote>
While Saudi Arabia used NSO's services for some time now, last December the Kingdom applied to buy the technology and Israel's Defense Ministry signed off that the sale <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-okayed-sale-of-pegasus-phone-spying-tool-to-saudi-arabia-report/">on 8 December 2018</a>. A full month before the penis pictures saga.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/how-a-chilling-saudi-cyberwar-ensnared-jamal-khashoggi/2018/12/07/f5f048fe-f975-11e8-8c9a-860ce2a8148f_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.730f16574aa2">According to the Post’s David Ignatius,</a> Saudi official Saud al-Qahtani sought Pegasus as part of a surveillance network designed to help the crown prince combat internal enemies as part of his drive for power.</blockquote>
As I mentioned at the outset, Saud al-Qahtani is the head of the Rapid Intervention Group, MBS' operational arm.<br />
<br />
NSO Group vociferously denied these allegations and claimed that its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-how-saudi-arabia-could-have-hacked-cell-phone-2019-3?IR=T">technology played no role in the Bezos hacking.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"We can say unequivocally that our technology was not used in this instance. We know this because our software cannot be used on US phone numbers," the spokeswoman said. "Our technology, which is only licensed to prevent or investigate crime and terror, was not used by any of our customers to target Mr. Bezos' phone."</blockquote>
This is an interesting denial, a bit like AMI maintaining no direct Saudi investment. It is a matter of clever parsing.<br />
<br />
You see, <a href="https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/7xnnea/nso-group-hack-jeff-bezos-saudi-arabia">there is a way around the American numbers limitation</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Bill Marczak, a researcher at Citizen Lab, a University of Toronto group that’s studied NSO for years, said that “describing target limitations in terms of phone numbers makes sense if you imagine targeting phones by using their number, such as by SMS.” </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“But what if you target people using, say, a malicious WiFi hotspot, or network injection, or getting them to visit a compromised website? In that case, [NSO’s spyware] Pegasus might not know the phone number of the person before it infects them.”</blockquote>
<a href="https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/7xnnea/nso-group-hack-jeff-bezos-saudi-arabia">Tellingly, the NSO Group had no come back for this loophole.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Without explaining the technical details of how this limitation works, an NSO spokesperson said in an email that NSO's spyware is specifically "designed to ensure it cannot be used in places other than which it is licensed."</blockquote>
To me the whole episode is a bit ironic. The most anti-semitic and least democratic place on earth is using Israeli technology to suppress dissent and kidnap and kill its citizens.<br />
<br />
If the same technology was used to go after an American citizen things could get complicated for both MBS and Netanyahu.<br />
<br />
As the richest man in the world Jeff Bezos is unlikely to leave this fight. If I were MBS I would worry about the prospect of Bezos coming after me.Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-42502399774361439622019-04-06T14:54:00.001+02:002019-04-06T14:54:33.851+02:00Lessons From Two Corruption Stories in North America: Trudeau vs Trump IITrudeau's woes, as I mentioned them in <a href="http://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2019/03/lessons-from-two-corruption-stories-in.html">my previous post</a>, make an interesting backdrop to a real corruption scandal in the US.<br />
<br />
Anyone with half a brain and willingness to face reality knows that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/04/trump-dad-germany-lies-orange-stories">Trump is a corrupt liar.</a> But his latest is a doozy.<br />
<br />
A while ago, the billionaire owner of New England Patriots <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/15/us/robert-kraft-florida-day-spa-investigation/index.html">Robert Kraft was caught</a> in a massage parlor receiving the proverbial "happy ending" or "<a href="https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=rub%20n%27%20tug">rub and tug</a>" in current parlance. The spa was part of a chain that was established by Li Yang, a Chinese businesswoman. While she no longer owns that particular establishment, a word I use advisedly, she still has a number of spas and massage parlors in southern Florida.<br />
<br />
Currently, Li Yang's (she goes by Cindy) <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/03/a-florida-massage-parlor-owner-has-been-selling-chinese-execs-access-to-trump-at-mar-a-lago/">more prominent business is selling access to President Trump to Chinese companies</a>. Yes, you read that correctly. She went from profiting from the debasing work of enslaved and likely trafficked women to funneling money to the Grifter-in-Chief.<br />
<br />
Here is how she and her husband Zubin Ging went about it. <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article227186429.html">First, they contributed to Trump Victory</a>, a PAC, over $42,000.<br />
<br />
Then Cindy arranged to have her photo taken with the President during a <a href="http://www.tellerreport.com/news/--cindy-yang--why-is-this-chinese-woman-raising-money-for-trump---.HyB_xbaD4.html">donation dinner at Mar-a-Lago Resort. </a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The New York Times now reports that she has raised $ 50,000 in donations so she could take a photo with Trump at an event last March, which the president later even signed with a silver pen. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
This looks like an earmarking scheme.<br /> That's a violation of federal election laws and a crime.</blockquote>
It could be a crime <a href="http://www.tellerreport.com/news/--cindy-yang--why-is-this-chinese-woman-raising-money-for-trump---.HyB_xbaD4.html">because of the way she raised the requisite $50,000</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Because individual financiers could not contribute more than $ 5,400, but the photo opportunity cost $ 50,000, Yang had at least nine people from their environment to donate money to Trump - each exactly $ 5,400. Among the donors were her husband and her mother, as well as several women who worked in shops of Yang's family.</blockquote>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gGg20rJv4b0/XKiIfoqk61I/AAAAAAAACYM/c57wxxejFH8hCiUW_g2YyqjvYZoFXAELACLcBGAs/s1600/cindy-yang-donald-trump-03082019.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="556" data-original-width="990" height="358" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gGg20rJv4b0/XKiIfoqk61I/AAAAAAAACYM/c57wxxejFH8hCiUW_g2YyqjvYZoFXAELACLcBGAs/s640/cindy-yang-donald-trump-03082019.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/03/a-florida-massage-parlor-owner-has-been-selling-chinese-execs-access-to-trump-at-mar-a-lago/">Li Yang with the Orange Man</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Now with visual proof of her proximity to Trump, Cindy and her husband Zubin Gong started a company that promised Chinese businessmen access to the President and prominent cabinet members and other politicians.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/03/a-florida-massage-parlor-owner-has-been-selling-chinese-execs-access-to-trump-at-mar-a-lago/">The company, called GY US</a>, "describes itself on its website, which is mostly in Chinese, as an “international business consulting firm that provides public relations services to assist businesses in America to establish and expand their brand image in the modern Chinese marketplace.”<br />
<br />
There is more:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
On a page displaying a photo of Mar-a-Lago, Yang’s company says its “activities for clients” have included providing them “the opportunity to interact with the president, the [American] Minister of Commerce and other political figures.” The company boasts it has “arranged taking photos with the President” and suggests it can set up a “White House and Capitol Hill Dinner.” </blockquote>
And to prove that they displayed many pictures taken with Trump and his family members.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe width="320" height="266" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/1wL3BFHl6pQ/0.jpg" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/1wL3BFHl6pQ?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></div>
<br />
<a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article227186429.html">Her Facebook contains</a> many more pictures taken with (besides Trump and family) "Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Rick Scott, Sarah Palin, the president’s campaign manager and an assortment of other high-level Republican operators."<br />
<br />
The company website (which is now down) has a list of upcoming Mar-a-Lago events where guests would have the opportunity to mingle with Trump and his family. <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/03/a-florida-massage-parlor-owner-has-been-selling-chinese-execs-access-to-trump-at-mar-a-lago/">One such event was Trump's New Year dinner</a> and GY US brought in a number of Chinese businessmen to interact with Trump, his sons and his sister Elizabeth Trump Grau.<br />
<br />
Now, that dinner cost $575 two years ago, $750 last year and $1,000 in 2019. Yahoo Finance reported that <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-chinese-entrepreneur-flew-17-184608100.html">one Chinese businessman, Huachu Tang</a> flew 17 hours to make it to the dinner and noted that "Tang has paid even more since he received admission as part of a package offered by a public-relations agency." Which is GY US.<br />
<br />
However, Trump couldn't attend due to government shutdown. So, to get his money's worth, Tang did the next best thing and had his picture taken with the rest of the Trump family.<br />
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-d3b0CfJcRfE/XKibHK1gCKI/AAAAAAAACYs/i_wmhdFkuFgJNFiFF4CYklkk11N6_bMeQCLcBGAs/s1600/Trump%2Bnew%2Byear%2Bdinner04.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="590" data-original-width="892" height="422" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-d3b0CfJcRfE/XKibHK1gCKI/AAAAAAAACYs/i_wmhdFkuFgJNFiFF4CYklkk11N6_bMeQCLcBGAs/s640/Trump%2Bnew%2Byear%2Bdinner04.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
So this is a President who profits from his position by selling tickets to private dinners at his own resort, charges $50,000 a pop to get his picture taken and allows Chinese former brothel owners to sell access to him to Chinese businesses.<br />
<br />
Now we know why he spends so much time in the Southern White House.<br />
<br />
Imagine the uproar if anybody else did these things. Actually no need to imagine, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/04/trump-dad-germany-lies-orange-stories">there is precedent</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
There was a time when such plainly corrupt conduct would have raised
more than an eyebrow or two. Back in the distant past when Crooked
Hillary was first lady, her husband had barely won his re-election when
the Republicans became obsessed about the Chinese trying to buy their
way to some White House influence.</blockquote>
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/campfin/stories/op101097.htm??noredirect=on">Remember the conservative outrage</a>?<br />
<br />
The Chinese influence story was what <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/04/trump-dad-germany-lies-orange-stories">lead to Ken Starr and Monica Lewinsky.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
That supposed Chinese scandal was of course the context for the
fateful decision to hire one Ken Starr to investigate Lewinsky et al, to
put an end to a president <a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/1998/09/06/magazine/ken-starr-would-not-be-denied.html">defiling</a> the temple of justice. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
To that end, one Brett Kavanaugh leaked all the juicy bits of the
grand jury deliberations and the Starr investigation to the media, and
Lindsey Graham argued in a Senate impeachment trial that the nation
should cleanse the office of the presidency by firing the president.
Graham now plays golf with Donald Trump and Kavanaugh sits on the
highest court in the land. The irony gods <a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.ripleys.com/weird-news/vomitoriums/">escaped</a> to the vomitorium some time ago.</blockquote>
IOKIYAR.<br />
<br />
That's why the Trudeau scandal is not really a scandal.Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-71523722069643859672019-03-24T13:27:00.001+01:002019-03-24T13:27:14.559+01:00Lessons From Two Corruption Stories in North America: Trudeau vs Trump IRecently, two North American countries witnessed their leaders facing charges of corruption.<br />
<br />
In and of themselves they were not particularly interesting. But they were very telling about how political scandals affect conservatives and liberals. And how the media propagates the dominant narrative.<br />
<br />
It was edifying.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Corruption In Canada </span><br />
<br />
Here is a summary of the Canadian scandal. Feel free to add air quotes around the word scandal.<br />
<br />
SNC Lavalin, one of the largest engineering and construction companies in the world, paid bribes in Libya in between 2001 and 2011 to get construction projects. When this became public knowledge after the fall of Gaddafi, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rcmp-charges-snc-lavalin-with-bribery-fraud/article23070193/">RCMP charged them with corruption and fraud.</a> The management issued a <i>mea culpa</i> and promised to change their ways and establish corporate procedures to prevent something like this happening again.<br />
<br />
They lobbied openly in favor of remediation as opposed to prosecution. In the latter case, if found guilty, and they would certainly be, thanks to their <i>mea culpa</i>, they would be barred from bidding for federal contracts for a full decade. And the company would almost certainly go bankrupt. In remediation, a plea deal would be entered, some fines would be paid and no jobs would be lost.<br />
<br />
These <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/3/6/18249949/trudeau-canada-snc-lavalin-scandal-wilson-raybould">deferred-action prosecutions are pretty common</a> in the US but they are a recent introduction in Canada. It is fair to note that this might have been the result of SNC Lavalin's lobbying efforts.<br />
<br />
In any event, SNC Lavalin is an aggressive company operating mostly in the developing world and they were willing to do anything to get new contracts. For instance, since 2013 SNC-Lavalin has been unable to bid on <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-snc-lavalin-fraud-corruption-1.5009578">World Bank contracts because of another bribery scheme</a> in Bangladesh.<br />
<br />
I can't tell you that bribing officials in Bangladesh was necessary but in Gaddafi's Libya - I know from several companies that operated there - that it was a <i>sine qua non</i>. No pay no play. I can affirm that any company that had any contract in Libya paid bribes.<br />
<br />
So put yourself in Justin Trudeau's shoes and you have a Quebec company that could go bankrupt if the Attorney General took the bribery in Libya charge too seriously.<br />
<br />
Quebec is also a Canadian province that held two referendums to seek independence. And Trudeau is from Quebec.<br />
<br />
As a politician what would you do?<br />
<div style="text-align: right;">
</div>
<br />
Here is the crime he is alleged to have committed: He sent some intermediaries to the Minister of Justice and Attorney General Jody Wilson-Raybould to ask her to consider the lighter option.<br />
<br />
When she demurred (she says she held firm), Trudeau did a cabinet shuffle and moved Wilson-Raybould to Veterans' Affairs which is a demotion.<br />
<br />
She didn't react at first but when the story came out, she accused the Prime Minister of pressuring her to save the company, Quebec jobs and Liberal Party votes in the Province.<br />
<br />
She then testified before the <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/3/6/18249949/trudeau-canada-snc-lavalin-scandal-wilson-raybould">judiciary committee of the House of Commons</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
During her testimony, Wilson-Raybould said that Trudeau and his senior aides had embarked on a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/27/canada-trudeau-snc-lavalin-jody-wilson-raybould">“consistent and sustained”</a> effort to get her to interfere in the case against SNC-Lavalin. She described the pressure as inappropriate but said that in her opinion, it <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wilson-raybould-testifies-justice-committee-1.5035219">“was not illegal.”</a></blockquote>
This is an understatement. In the British system, and by colonial extension first-past-the-post single constituency system, any Member of Parliament or MP is obliged to defend, support and look after the interests of their constituency.<br />
<br />
This is what Trudeau did. Unlike Jean Chretien's <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shawinigate">Shawinigate</a>, there is no allegation that he benefited from this support financially or did it for personal benefit.<br />
<br />
Yet Canadians were outraged and this whole episode might cost him the election. After a sustained media campaign, the feeling is summarized as "<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/21/hes-not-a-bad-person-but-justin-trudeau-voters-lament-scandal">He's not a bad person but...</a>"<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
This is the first feminist, progressive Prime Minister or President anywhere, a unicorn and he might be replaced by a conservative politician because he tried to protect jobs.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/01/justin-trudeau-disgrace-unicorn-political-scandal-canadian">For Canadian liberals</a>, or indeed any of us who cling to outdated ideas such
as good governance and liberal democratic values, it was like watching a
unicorn get flattened by a lorry. </blockquote>
Was he blameless? No.<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_4bNaYGXEO8/XJdz_ZZ3X0I/AAAAAAAACXs/l5oxd1r3rw4815avgOawBFBvpcS8fWbVQCLcBGAs/s1600/gerald-butts-jody-wilson-raybould.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="439" data-original-width="780" height="180" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_4bNaYGXEO8/XJdz_ZZ3X0I/AAAAAAAACXs/l5oxd1r3rw4815avgOawBFBvpcS8fWbVQCLcBGAs/s320/gerald-butts-jody-wilson-raybould.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/gerry-butts-testifies-commons-committee-updates-1.5044709">Butts and Wilson-Raybould</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
A cabinet shuffle after pressuring the Justice Minister was simply stupid. I also suspect that he sent his private secretary and closest confident Gerald Butts to see Ms. Wilson-Raybould and he was likely to be heavy handed.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/06/justin-trudeau-gerald-butts-testimony-political-crisis">Butts denied it of course</a> but he is <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2019/02/18/who-is-gerald-butts-5-things-to-know-about-justin-trudeaus-ex-principal-secretary_a_23672174/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer_us=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_cs=6nflJK2_q8ddMICw4-tuRw">combative and as a former national debating champion his style</a> is confrontational.<br />
<br />
That is the extent of the "scandal."<br />
<br />
But why did it become a such a big deal?<br />
<br />
In a word, the relentless and skewed media coverage.<br />
<br />
Canadian media outlets are owned by a small number of companies, (<a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bell_Media">Bell</a>, <a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corus_Entertainment">Corus</a>, <a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rogers_Media">Rogers</a>, <a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcap_Radio">Newcap</a>, <a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebecor">Quebecor</a>)<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", Arial, "Liberation Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"> </span>which also hold "<a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Media_ownership_in_Canada">a diverse mix of television, cable television, radio, newspaper, magazine, and/or internet operations.</a>" (That is the main reason why Canadians still pay long distance charges)<br />
<br />
As a group with similar interests, they tend to present a cohesive point of view. And on the whole they favor <a href="https://thewalrus.ca/does-canadian-media-have-a-right-wing-bias/">a conservative editorial perspective</a>. Theirs is not a blatant propagandist position a la Fox News. It is more along the lines of pushing certain priorities and omitting certain points a la The Economist, though with more subtlety.<br />
<br />
For instance, prior to the Conservative Party's electoral victory in 2006, deficit was the most important issue that dominated the headlines and evening news, only to be completely forgotten after the Stephen Harper victory.<br />
<br />
Similarly, when Canada escaped relatively unscathed the 2008 financial crisis, the media credited Harper even though it was the specific policies of the previous government (such as not relaxing the real estate borrowing rules) that were responsible for that outcome.<br />
<br />
The way media outlets achieve their goal to emphasize a specific point of view while appearing objective is to give <a href="https://thewalrus.ca/does-canadian-media-have-a-right-wing-bias/">disproportionate access to right-wing politicians</a>.<br />
<br />
Boris Johnson, David Davis, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nigel Farage dominating television debates during the Brexit referendum is a classical example. No <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/infact/brexit-second-referendum-false-claims-eu-referendum-campaign-lies-fake-news-a8113381.html">broadcaster confronted their blatant lies</a> about the economic impact, the NHS gains or impossibility to maintain Irish border open.<br />
<br />
There are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/22/political-monsters-media-jacob-rees-mogg-platforms">many other examples of wingnuts getting more coverage</a> than anybody else.<br />
<br />
One of the best illustration of this in this case is <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47544102">this recent item from the BBC</a>. They posted an article that did very little other than simply list Conservative charges and refute Liberal arguments.<br />
<br />
This is the picture of Trudeau they used.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-mdsk1M_eNlY/XJdbVgy8kQI/AAAAAAAACXY/Y5i83HJb6Lkq0X5wJ6qQbRttGXVQFBuIwCLcBGAs/s1600/trudeau4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="371" data-original-width="660" height="356" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-mdsk1M_eNlY/XJdbVgy8kQI/AAAAAAAACXY/Y5i83HJb6Lkq0X5wJ6qQbRttGXVQFBuIwCLcBGAs/s640/trudeau4.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
The piece maintained that SNC Lavalin intervention was unnecessary, implied twice that there was more to the story, called Trudeau a "fake feminist" for shuffling a woman minister and cast doubt on possible job losses if SNC Lavalin was convicted of fraud. It only provided quotes from opposition politicians and analysts who question the Trudeau position.<br />
<br />
For instance, on the likelihood of job losses, the piece quoted opposition figures and academics who maintained that there was no evidence that if SNC Lavalin was unable to bid on federal contracts, the 9,000 jobs on its payroll might be at risk.<br />
<br />
Think about it for a second. What evidence can there be? This is a firm that is already on <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2013/04/17/world-bank-debars-snc-lavalin-inc-and-its-affiliates-for-ten-years">World Bank's blacklist until 2023</a>, which means most other multilateral lenders shun them. If they were banned from Canadian federal contracts for a decade, where would they get their next project? Why would you need evidence to indicate a substantial number of jobs would be lost? It is a simple equation. No new revenue stream, layoffs. The company might survive but it is a virtual certitude that they would shed a large number jobs.<br />
<br />
Which was the Liberal point.<br />
<br />
So far no one's is listening.<br />
<br />
I expect another Conservative government will come to power in the Fall and start implementing the same blueprint we see everywhere else. Fake news accusations, blaming the immigrants for everything and denying climate change. And dividing the nation into Us and Them.<br />
<br />
I do not expect the Canadian media to have a major problem with that platform. There will be a couple of critical op-eds in some regional papers like the Ottawa Citizen. The Globe and Mail will have some investigative journalism reports which will not have any impact, National Post will praise the government and that will be that.<br />
<br />
Now let's take a look at the other scandal, one that involves massage parlors, prostitution and paying the President for foreign access.<br />
<br />
And the American media's reaction.Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-23105522401343071962019-02-16T18:03:00.002+01:002019-02-16T18:03:45.639+01:00Deep Misogyny of Mainstream Media and Women Candidates The day after Elizabeth Warren announced her intention to form an exploratory committee something very familiar happened.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/31/elizabeth-warren-hillary-clinton-1077008">Politico ran a piece about how Warren was really Clinton "redux"</a> and as an unlikable witch, her candidacy should be dismissed. And, unsurprisingly, it was written by a woman, as editors love to give those hatchet jobs to female journalists:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
She’s too divisive and too liberal, Washington Democrats have complained
privately. Her DNA rollout was a disaster — and quite possibly a White
House deal-breaker. She’s already falling in the polls, and — perhaps
most stinging — shares too many of the attributes that sank Hillary
Clinton.</blockquote>
It took less than 24 hours to frame her candidacy negatively. And she is by far the most qualified and electable Democratic candidate. She is the one who gave <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Warren">this speech in 2011</a> when both Republicans and Democrats had moved to the right of Richard Nixon.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
There is nobody in this country who got rich on his own. Nobody. ... You moved your goods to market on the roads the rest of us paid for; you hired workers the rest of us paid to educate; you were safe in your factory because of police forces and fire forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn't have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory, and hire someone to protect against this, because of the work the rest of us did. Now look, you built a factory and it turned into something terrific, or a great idea. God bless. Keep a big hunk of it. But part of the underlying social contract is, you take a hunk of that and pay forward for the next kid who comes along.</blockquote>
She passed legislation to protect consumers, she made life difficult for too-big-too-fail banksters and she went after the Republican grifters.<br />
<br />
Yet she is just Clinton redux.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-51CLZDG8CE0/XGgzV4NOd6I/AAAAAAAACWs/C_vjQjJ2RXw76PDXY-hq9Ag6IutnS2QoACLcBGAs/s1600/Elizabeth%2Bwarren.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="533" data-original-width="800" height="426" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-51CLZDG8CE0/XGgzV4NOd6I/AAAAAAAACWs/C_vjQjJ2RXw76PDXY-hq9Ag6IutnS2QoACLcBGAs/s640/Elizabeth%2Bwarren.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/elizabeth-warren-announces-run-president-163024170.html?guccounter=1">But her DNA?</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Around the same time Kirsten Gillibrand announced her intention to explore. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/19/kirsten-gillibrand-2020-run-feminist-candidate-attacked-no-surprise">A backlash followed</a>. She was the first woman senator to have asked Al Franken to resign. And ever since then, this implicit accusation of humorless harpy followed her everywhere.<br />
<br />
Compare this to the reaction to Joe Biden, who, if elected would be 78 in 2020. He declared himself <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/04/possible-2020-presidential-candidate-joe-biden-says-hes-qualified.html">to be the most qualified person in America to be president</a> and the media reported this without any commentary.<br />
<br />
Can you imagine the media shitstorm if Hillary Clinton, Kirsten Gillibrand or Elizabeth Warren made such a statement? All the liberal (i.e. deeply conservative) and conservative (i.e. proto-fascist) opinion-makers would have a field day with "them arrogant feminazi."<br />
<br />
(As I explained before, <a href="http://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/08/james-damores-memo-and-litmus-test-for.html">women are the only minority anyone can call nazi</a> and the normally hyper-vigilant <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Defamation_League">ADL</a> has no problem with that.)<br />
<br />
In all this, the corporate media is extremely complicit.<br />
<br />
This is how it works. The Republicans will invent a crisis, say Benghazi, and the corporate media will report every utterance or tweet from the Republican leadership. The issue will remain on the front page for as long as the Republicans chose to talk about it.<br />
<br />
Conversely, if they uncover (Democrats are too wussy to do it on their own) a Republican scandal, say, Trump's lies or his massive conflicts of interest or his racist record. The so-called liberal media will do a one-off detailed report and that will be that.<br />
<br />
During the presidential race, they covered <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/28/us/politics/donald-trump-housing-race.html">Trump family's racist rental policies</a>, his <a href="http://time.com/donald-trumps-suite-of-power/">Washington Hotel</a> or <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/12/6/18127229/trump-felix-sater-tower-moscow-spy">his dubious business associates</a> all linked to Russian criminal circles. But do you know how many articles were published on her emails between March 2015 and September 2016?<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.newsweek.com/2016/09/23/george-w-bush-white-house-lost-22-million-emails-497373.html">560,397</a>. Yes over <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2016/11/why-people-dislike-hillary-clinton.html">half a million stories on Clinton's emails</a>. <br />
<br />
Cable news <a href="https://www.vox.com/2017/12/7/16747712/study-media-2016-election-clintons-emails">was not any better</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Network newscasts have, remarkably, <a href="https://mediamatters.org/blog/2016/10/26/study-confirms-network-evening-newscasts-have-abandoned-policy-coverage-2016-campaign/214120">dedicated more airtime to coverage of Clinton’s emails than to all policy issues combined</a>. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Cable news has been, if anything, worse, and many prestige outlets have joined the pileup. One malign result of obsessive email coverage is that the public is left totally unaware of the policy stakes in the election. <b>Another is that the constant vague recitations of the phrase ‘‘Clinton email scandal’’ have firmly implanted the notion that there is something scandalous about anything involving Hillary Clinton and email</b>, including her campaign manager getting hacked or the revelation that one of her aides sometimes checked mail on her husband’s computer.</blockquote>
In fact, this is standard modus operandi when it comes to women candidates The Republican slurs are repeated so frequently by the media that they become qualifying adjectives in the minds of the electorate.<br />
<br />
And it won't do for such candidates to fight against the bogus charges. The media will use such efforts to rehash the original attack.<br />
<br />
Let's take a look at the Pocahontas racial slur used by Trump to taint and belittle Elizabeth Warren. The Republican claim was that Warren lied about having Native American heritage for professional gain.<br />
<br />
Well, is it true? No.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/elizabeth-warren-wealthy-native-american/">Snopes reports</a> that:<br />
<br />
-She did put herself on Minority Law Teacher list as a Native American<br />
-Harvard used her Native ancestry to bolster their claim of diversity<br />
<br />
But they could find no evidence that she used her ancestry to gain professional advantage. <a href="https://hecatedemeter.wordpress.com/2018/12/31/but-her-dna/">She maintained that</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
[S]he was recruited for the positions and did not “apply” for them; and for the most part, her record did not indicate any identification as part of a minority group:</blockquote>
<blockquote>
The Globe obtained a portion of Warren’s application to Rutgers, which asks if prospective students want to apply for admission under the school’s Program for Minority Group Students. Warren answered “no.”For her employment documents at the University of Texas, Warren indicated that she was “white.”</blockquote>
Now calling her Pocahontas is racist. Do you remember media outlets bringing up this fact repeatedly or at least every time Trump used it in a tweet?<br />
<br />
Me neither.<br />
<br />
Let's take a look at your options when you are under attack as a progressive woman politician.<br />
<br />
If you say nothing, the Republicans will continue to attack and the media will continue to report their attacks. Soon you are a liar and a fraud.<br />
<br />
If you push back, they report your statement and counter it with a Republican talking point.<br />
<br />
So, Elizabeth Warren was accused of lying about her heritage. She took a DNA test to show that she had Native American DNA only to be ridiculed by the same media outlets. They even quoted the execrable Lindsey Graham saying <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/news/411592-lindsey-graham-im-taking-dna-test-i-think-i-can-beat-elizabeth-warren-on-amount">that he was going to take a DNA test to try to beat Warren's results.</a><br />
<br />
You are doomed if you say nothing and doomed if you defend yourself.<br />
<br />
And finally, the media will gleefully put these bogus changes around your neck by repeating them every time you make a statement.<br />
<br />
Case in point: When Warren announced her bid to presidency, most media outlets brought up her DNA tests and claim of Native American heritage. This is what the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/31/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-2020-president-announcement.html">New York Times said</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
While Ms. Warren’s stinging attacks on Mr. Trump and Wall Street have helped make her a favorite of grass-roots liberals, she also faces challenges as a presidential candidate: <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/06/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-dna-test-2020.html?module=inline">controversy over a DNA test to prove her Native American heritage</a>, skepticism from the party establishment and a lack of experience in a national race.</blockquote>
Then <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/01/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-cherokee-dna.html">they ran a piece about Warren apologizing</a> to the Cherokee nation for the DNA test. And quoted Trump saying this<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"[<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47096767">Warren's credibility has</a>] "been hurt very badly with the Pocahontas trap". </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"I think she's
been hurt badly. I may be wrong, but I think that was a big part of her
credibility, and now all of a sudden it's gone."</blockquote>
Donald Trump the man who lied more than all politicians in American history combined was asked to comment on Elizabeth Warren's credibility. Can you see the irony? They don't.<br />
<br />
The next day <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47096767">BBC brought it up</a> and had Cherokee Nation's Secretary of State attack Warren:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"Senator Warren is undermining tribal interests with her continued claims of tribal heritage." </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"It
makes a mockery out of DNA tests and its legitimate uses while also
dishonouring legitimate tribal governments and their citizens, whose
ancestors are well documented and whose heritage is proven."</blockquote>
I can give you <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/09/politics/elizabeth-warren-campaign-kickoff-massachusetts/index.html">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/in-iowa-sen-elizabeth-warren-tells-a-voter-why-she-took-that-dna-test/2019/01/05/818de546-112d-11e9-84fc-d58c33d6c8c7_story.html">Washington Post</a>, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/01/05/elizabeth-warren-supporters-question-why-mass-democrat-took-dna-test/2490438002/">USAToday</a> or <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/1/5/18169949/elizabeth-warren-iowa-campaign-dna-results">Vox</a>.<br />
<br />
Compare this with <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden_1988_presidential_campaign">Joe Biden withdrawing his 1988 presidential bid for plagiarism</a>. No one remembers it. Do you know why? Because he is a man, no one brings it up.<br />
<br />
Just like no one brings up regularly the fact that Donald Trump <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/21/donald-trump-lies-factcheckers">lied 7,645 times since taking office</a>.<br />
<br />
Do you see epithets like "his tendency to make misleading statements dogged him since he became president?"<br />
<br />
Or do you see periodic reports on his paying off a porn star or a Playboy model on the anniversary of these incidents?<br />
<br />
Me neither.<br />
<br />
Yet Monica Lewinsky incident is always back in the news. This is from 15 February 2019 BBC News and the item was on the front page for five days.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-qGZKxLPAZ8M/XGb5nVtaCrI/AAAAAAAACWg/MJeuVcvIr6InumOG14LOSIV3AY3vRB5gQCLcBGAs/s1600/Clinton.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="380" data-original-width="1600" height="152" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-qGZKxLPAZ8M/XGb5nVtaCrI/AAAAAAAACWg/MJeuVcvIr6InumOG14LOSIV3AY3vRB5gQCLcBGAs/s640/Clinton.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
In case you think this is about Bill Clinton, it is not. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47164909">It is still the media's way of skewering Hillary Clinton</a>.<br />
<br />
Do you see periodic pieces on Dennis Hastert, the former Republican speaker who abused boys as a wrestling coach and paid them off afterwards?<br />
<br />
Do you see anyone mentioning Louisiana (R) Senator David Vitter whose sex worker dealt with his diaper fetish?<br />
<br />
All ancient history.<br />
<br />
But Benghazi and email servers all the time. Or Warren's DNA.<br />
<br />
They tried to do it with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez but it didn't work for once, <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/old-video-of-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-dancing-goes-viral-after-botched-attempt-by-right-to-shame-congresswoman">because millennials called their bullshit</a>.<br />
<br />
But that doesn't mean they won't try again.<br />
<br />
There is a special place in hell for corporate media journalists.Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-74401124124151188022018-12-23T12:15:00.001+01:002018-12-25T23:28:15.584+01:00Why Did Trump Pull Out Of Syria: Another Khashoggi GiftSomething funny happened last Thursday.<br />
<br />
To the shock and dismay of Republicans in Congress, the military-industrial complex and America's NATO allies, Donald Trump declared that he was withdrawing all the American troops in Syria.<br />
<br />
He did it despite strong opposition from his own cabinet, his staunch supporters in the Senate and America's various allies around the globe.<br />
<br />
He didn't even flinch when his Secretary of Defense James "Mad Dog" Mattis abruptly resigned over the issue.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://c.ndtvimg.com/2018-12/bqu637go_jim-mattis-and-donald-trump_wp-_625x300_21_December_18.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="US Defence Chief James Mattis Quits Over Trump's Syria, Afghanistan Move" border="0" src="https://c.ndtvimg.com/2018-12/bqu637go_jim-mattis-and-donald-trump_wp-_625x300_21_December_18.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
Subsequently, when Syria envoy <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46661384">Brett McGurk resigned, he called it a "non-event."</a><br />
<br />
America's withdrawal from Syria means several things.<br />
<br />
One, Bashar al-Assad will remain in power completing the dreaded "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shia_crescent">Shia Crescent</a>."<br />
<br />
Two, without the US, Russia and Iran will be the main players in Syria and will largely determine the future of the country and the entire Middle East.<br />
<br />
Three, Turkey will be free to enter Northern Syria and bomb Syrian Kurds, a key US ally in fighting ISIS, killing tens of thousands.<br />
<br />
Please tell me how these three points make any sense from an American perspective.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-n-LrMMpr10U/XB9pa-cw-zI/AAAAAAAACV0/qou15ei21OMy-cSxF6iNVAEex0s6ZhyyACLcBGAs/s1600/Shia%2Bcrescent.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="389" data-original-width="330" height="320" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-n-LrMMpr10U/XB9pa-cw-zI/AAAAAAAACV0/qou15ei21OMy-cSxF6iNVAEex0s6ZhyyACLcBGAs/s320/Shia%2Bcrescent.jpg" width="271" /></a>The Shia Crescent, which assumes that Iran, Iraq and Syria are trying to encircle the Sunni Arabs, was the main reason why the Gulf countries tried to destabilize Al-Assad's regime and Saudis launched their murderous campaign in Yemen.<br />
<br />
Why would they accept this silently?<br />
<br />
Moreover, leaving Iran and Russia as the main power players in the region could not be desirable for Israel or the Sunni countries.<br />
<br />
Iran will now steadily increase its influence throughout the region.<br />
<br />
Already, Russia, Iran and Turkey are <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/12/russia-iran-turkey-seek-deal-syria-constitutional-body-181218061917052.html">working with the Special UN Envoy Staffan de Mistura to draft the new Syrian constitution.</a><br />
<br />
Why was Iran's most implacable foe <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-gives-cautious-backing-to-us-troop-withdrawal-from-syria/">Bibi Netanyahu's reaction a muted "we will study it"?</a><br />
<br />
Other than Russia and Iran the country that clearly benefits from this withdrawal is Turkey. There are now <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/dec/21/james-mattis-resignation-trump-erdogan-phone-call">reports that Trump made that decision on the spot</a> while talking to Turkey's President on Thursday stunning his advisors.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“Why are you still there?” Erdoğan demanded, according to the account.<br />
<br />
With the Turkish leader still on the line, Trump asked the same question of his national security adviser, John Bolton, who repeated US policy until then, that the defeat of Isis had to be “enduring”, preventing the possibility of a resurgence.<br />
<br />
To the surprise of Bolton and Erdoğan, Trump instantly sided with the Turkish president.</blockquote>
I don't believe for a minute that Trump is the kind of guy who would not react belligerently to a question like "why are you still there?" let alone side with such an interlocutor.<br />
<br />
He made it clear that the pull out was to leave Turkey in charge.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JhbQ3eZdYp4/XB9ttAqhJoI/AAAAAAAACWA/bvnU-VaGsJ0iw4qD3IYUuJPYs6LP5KXJQCLcBGAs/s1600/Trump-syria.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="963" height="448" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JhbQ3eZdYp4/XB9ttAqhJoI/AAAAAAAACWA/bvnU-VaGsJ0iw4qD3IYUuJPYs6LP5KXJQCLcBGAs/s640/Trump-syria.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Before the Trump's withdrawal decision Erdogan had already declared his intention to attack Syrian Kurds in the coming weeks. He gave a major speech announcing the start a large scale operation in Syria. Two days later he threaten <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey/turkey-will-enter-syrias-manbij-if-us-doesnt-remove-ypg-fighters-erdogan-says-idUSKBN1OD0UC">to invade Manbij if the US refuses to remove YPG fighters</a> from the area.<br />
<br />
Typically such a bellicose approach does not work well with Pentagon or the White House especially since Turkey is not in a position to start hostilities anywhere if the US is opposed to them.<br />
<br />
When I heard the withdrawal decision, I immediately concluded that it had something to do with the Khashoggi murder and Trump's desire to protect Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS).<br />
<br />
The muted Israeli reaction and the deafening silence from the Gulf countries supported my guess.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/12/trump-orders-full-withdrawal-troops-syria-181219235322303.html">Then I saw this on Al Jazeera</a>, the Qatar-based news network:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"They [people in Congress] are also suggesting that Trump is doing this as a favour to Turkey - the reason he wants Turkey onside, perhaps, is to ease the pressure on Saudi Arabia, particularly over the death of Jamal Khashoggi," said Fisher, referring to the October 2 <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/10/jamal-khashoggi-case-latest-updates-181010133542286.html">murder of the Saudi journalist</a> inside the kingdom's consulate in the Turkish city of Istanbul.</blockquote>
In other words, Trump threw the Syrian Kurds under the bus to protect MBS, which means Turkey, <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2018/11/why-was-jamal-khashoggi-killed.html">as I have been claiming</a>, has damning evidence implicating the Crown Prince and is threatening to use it at every turn.<br />
<br />
Unfortunately for both MBS and Trump, this will not go far. The pull out is scheduled to complete in 100 days.<br />
<br />
During that time, Syrian Kurds will reach out to Bashar Al-Assad and offer their help and support in his campaign to reclaim his rule and the Russians will support that move.<br />
<br />
At that point neither Turkey nor the US will be able to do much the change the power balance on the ground.<br />
<br />
Once again Putin will be the kingmaker. Because of that there is <a href="https://consortiumnews.com/2018/12/19/dont-hold-your-breath-on-us-troop-withdrawal-from-syria/">even a chance that the withdrawal might never take place.</a><br />
<br />
The timeline also coincides with the conclusion of the Mueller investigation, whose findings are expected <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/25/robert-mueller-donald-trump-russia-investigation">to be made public sometime in February.</a><br />
<br />
With Trump in a fight for his life, MBS will lose his principal backer. At which point <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-end-game-in-khashoggi-murder-is-mbs.html">a palace coup might take place</a> and a new Crown Prince might emerge.<br />
<br />
We'll see in due course.<br />
<br />
But one thing is clear, the Khashoggi murder will continue to have profound consequences.<br />
<br />
----------------<br />
<br />
UPDATE:<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46668260">In case you were wondering</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
But shortly after announcing Mr Shanahan's appointment on Sunday, Mr
Trump moved to calm widespread concerns over the pullout which he
initially said would be "rapid". </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Mr Trump said on Twitter that he
had spoken with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey about "our
mutual involvement in Syria, & the slow and highly coordinated
withdrawal of US troops from the area".</blockquote>
He was blackmailed. And now he is trying to reassure the American "deep state."<br />
<br />
Good luck with trying to square that circle.<br />
<br />
--------------<br />
UPDATE 2<br />
<br />
In case you were <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/23/turkey-masses-troops-near-kurdish-held-town-in-northern-syria">wondering about the corner Trump found himself in</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<a class="u-underline" data-component="auto-linked-tag" data-link-name="auto-linked-tag" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/turkey">Turkey</a>
is massing troops near a town in northern Syria held by a Kurdish-led
force backed by the US, a war monitor and Turkish media have said.<br />
The buildup comes despite Ankara saying it would delay a promised offensive in eastern Syria in the wake of Donald Trump’s <a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/20/syria-kurds-trump-troop-withdrawal-isis-turkey">surprise announcement on Wednesday to withdraw </a><a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/20/syria-kurds-trump-troop-withdrawal-isis-turkey">US troops from the country</a>, which it welcomed.</blockquote>
I really wish MBS was worth it.<br />
<br />
But he is not.<br />
<br />
----------------<br />
UPDATE 3<br />
<br />
Here is what <a href="https://www.salon.com/2018/12/25/gen-wesley-clark-asks-if-trump-was-blackmailed-into-pulling-out-of-syria_partner/">former NATO commander retired General Wesley Clark said about the withdrawal</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
During a CNN appearance on December 24, Clark stressed that “there doesn’t seem to be any strategic rational for the decision. And if there is no strategic rational, then you have to ask, ‘Why was the decision made? I can tell you that people around the world are asking this. And some of our friends and our allies in the Middle East are asking, ‘<b>Well, did Erdogan blackmail the president?</b> Was there a payoff or something? Why would a guy make a decision like this?’” [my emphasis]</blockquote>
You read it here first.Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-18572523336215174502018-11-28T17:22:00.000+01:002018-12-03T18:36:51.011+01:00The End Game In Khashoggi Murder: Is MBS on His Way Out?<a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2018/11/why-was-jamal-khashoggi-killed.html">In my previous post</a>, I suggested that the gruesome murder of Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul could be the result of a joint Qatar-Turkey intelligence operations which aimed to provoke Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) to greenlight a risky hit and find himself in big trouble.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-P_TLoRthdVQ/W_PsoCmBL9I/AAAAAAAACUs/Cv65G5fg5c4fzTzgN-f2JxiMrM551hv2ACLcBGAs/s1600/al-waleed%2Bbin%2Btalal.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="405" data-original-width="720" height="180" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-P_TLoRthdVQ/W_PsoCmBL9I/AAAAAAAACUs/Cv65G5fg5c4fzTzgN-f2JxiMrM551hv2ACLcBGAs/s320/al-waleed%2Bbin%2Btalal.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42846282">Prison room service</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Since ordinarily the disappearance of a Saudi citizen would not have gotten much attention, I offered my guess that the surprisingly sustained media campaign and the withdrawal of CEOs from the Davos in the Desert might have been engineered by Al-Waleed bin Talal, the royal prince who was previously imprisoned, tortured and robbed by MBS.<br />
<br />
As a wealthy investor, bin Talal is on very friendly terms with media barons like Rupert Murdoch and also Wall Street and industry titans. No other Saudi has his contacts or his influence.<br />
<br />
To me, it was the only theory that explained all the incongruous elements of the Khashoggi case.<br />
<br />
Since that post, a couple of interesting things happened to lend support to my thesis.<br />
<br />
Initially, Turkey was not among the countries to be granted an Iranian oil import waiver by the Trump administration. The Bloomberg article I linked to did not have Turkey on the list, now it does. The day after my post, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/03/reuters-america-turkey-expects-to-know-on-monday-if-has-waiver-for-iran-sanctions.html">Turkish Trade Minister said</a> that they hoped to be on the list but will know for sure by the following Monday.<br />
<br />
Second, Al-Waleed bin Talal's brother who was detained for almost a year was promptly <a href="https://middle-east-online.com/en/saudi-frees-billionaire-prince%E2%80%99s-brother-detention">released with no explanation</a>. Unlike Khashoggi, Khalid bin Talal was a vocal critique of MBS.<br />
<br />
Tellingly, his release led to a lull in the Khashoggi coverage. It could be a coincidence as there were midterm elections. However, it may be worth noting that the Khashoggi murder was the top story in the weeks and days leading to the same elections.<br />
<br />
The Khashoggi story reclaimed its front page status when Turkey's president Tayyip Erdogan announced that Turkish intelligence agency MIT shared an audio recording of the murder with French, German, Russian, Canadian and American authorities.<br />
<br />
A major scramble ensued. <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/khashoggi-recordings-political-game-french-foreign-minister/story?id=59146509">The French</a> denied it, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/12/trudeau-says-canada-has-received-turkish-tape-of-khashoggi">Canadians acknowledged</a> it and the rest remained silent.<br />
<br />
One party that wasn't very happy about this new light shone on the murder was the Trump Administration as they have been trying very hard, along with Benyamin Netanyahu, to keep MBS as the Crown Prince.<br />
<br />
Then something very strange happened. Unlike the Trump Administration the American deep state took a decisive position against MBS.<br />
<br />
The CIA, whose chief <a href="https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/">reportedly blackmailed Erdogan to shut him up</a>, went to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/16/us/politics/cia-saudi-crown-prince-khashoggi.html">the Capitol Hill to inform lawmakers that</a> its analysis supported the conclusion that it was MBS who ordered the Khashoggi hit.<br />
<br />
And to top it off, they leaked the existence of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/16/cia-determines-saudi-crown-prince-ordered-journalists-killing-washington-post">a phone call recording between Khashoggi and Khalid bin Salman</a>, MBS' brother and Saudi ambassador to the US.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Khalid told Khashoggi he should go to the Saudi consulate in Istanbul to
retrieve the documents and gave him assurances that it would be safe to
do so, the Post said. The newspaper, citing people familiar with the
call, said it was not clear if Khalid knew Khashoggi would be killed,
but he made the call at his brother’s direction.</blockquote>
More damningly, the CIA also shared another phone call from the consulate.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Maher Mutreb, a security official who has often been seen at the crown
prince’s side, made the call to Saud al-Qahtani, a top aide to Prince
Mohammed, to inform him the operation had been completed, the Post said,
citing people familiar with the call.</blockquote>
<a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/cia-holds-smoking-gun-phone-call-of-saudi-crown-prince-on-khashoggi-murder-columnist-139079">There is more</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is in possession of a phone call recording of <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/search/Saudi">Saudi</a> Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in which he is heard giving an instruction to “silence <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/search/Jamal">Jamal</a> <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/search/Khashoggi">Khashoggi</a> as soon as possible,” Hürriyet columnist Abdulkadir Selvi wrote on Nov. 22.</blockquote>
The columnist is very close to the government and has been known to have solid ties with the intelligence community. In his column, he suggested that it was <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/cia-holds-smoking-gun-phone-call-of-saudi-crown-prince-on-khashoggi-murder-columnist-139079">Haspel who informed her Turkish counterpart of the existence of the recording</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
According to Selvi, CIA Director Gina Haspel “signalled” during her trip to Ankara last month the existence of the wiretapped phone call between Crown Prince Mohammed and his brother Khaled bin Salman, who is <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/search/Saudi">Saudi</a> <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/search/Arabia">Arabia</a>’s ambassador to the United States.</blockquote>
Why would the CIA share this bit with Turkey who is hellbent on getting rid of MBS?<br />
<br />
Second indication that the deep state doesn't find MBS acceptable anymore was the heavy pressure they exerted on him to dramatically change course. After months of complicit silence, as soon as the Khashoggi murder hit the front pages, the Pentagon and the State Department began pressuring Saudi Arabia to cease hostilities in Yemen and end the massive loss of human life.<br />
<br />
They also asked MBS to end the Qatari embargo. And <a href="https://middle-east-online.com/en/saudi-arabia-defies-us-pressure-end-gulf-row">there are reports that he refused</a>. At least so far.<br />
<br />
That's why the Khashoggi case is so interesting: its extensive coverage and the carefully planned leaks by Turkey provided significant leverage to those who wanted to <a href="https://middle-east-online.com/en/saudi-arabia-defies-us-pressure-end-gulf-row">either force MBS to change course</a> or to simply force him out.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Washington believes it has more influence with Riyadh as its ally
tries to repair the damage to the kingdom's standing, and wants to use
this opportunity to push for an end to the Yemen war and rebuild Gulf
unity against Iran, four sources familiar with the matter said. (...)</blockquote>
Against this coalition of the willing stand Trump and Netanyahu.<br />
<br />
As you know, Trump double downed and shrugged off the CIA information. Yesterday the White House <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/27/jamal-khashoggi-murder-senate-briefing-saudi-arabia-gina-haspel-white-house">prevented Haspel to brief Senators</a> on the Khashoggi murder asking Mike Pompeo and James Mattis to inform them. Apparently, this is not the regular protocol.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Bruce Riedel, a veteran CIA official and an expert on the US-Saudi
relationship at the Brookings Institution, said: “Gina [Haspel] has been
the case officer on this. <a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/23/jamal-khashoggi-trump-cover-up-sanctions-visas">She traveled to Turkey and she is the one who listened to the tapes</a> and is reported to have briefed the president multiple times. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“This is further evidence that the White House is trying to outdo the
Saudis in carrying out the worst cover-up in modern history,” Riedel
added.</blockquote>
So what is the endgame? And will MBS survive this?<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Erdogan's End Game</span><br />
<br />
The biggest beneficiary of the Khashoggi operation has been Turkey's president.<br />
<br />
His daily announcements about the gruesome details of the murder and persistent claims about having audio and video evidence put Western governments in a difficult position: He made it impossible for them to ignore the Saudi crime.<br />
<br />
Europeans had to humor him. Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Putin accepted his invitation for a Summit on Syria and had to give him grudgingly the role of peacemaker in Syria.<br />
<br />
Look at Macron's expression.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3Z83EcV52Xs/W_PcwILI0mI/AAAAAAAACUg/RSpv5sGnnVUynAqk7yKauOc0Aoe-PBayQCLcBGAs/s1600/istanbul%2Bsummit.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="506" data-original-width="900" height="356" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3Z83EcV52Xs/W_PcwILI0mI/AAAAAAAACUg/RSpv5sGnnVUynAqk7yKauOc0Aoe-PBayQCLcBGAs/s640/istanbul%2Bsummit.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.rt.com/news/442449-istanbul-syria-summit-highlights/">Four Amigos</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
He also outplayed the Saudis. They had no idea what kind of evidence he had and consequently, they couldn't put together a coherent defense. Their frequently changing story confirmed their guilt and seriously damaged MBS' and royal family's international standing.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/10/erdogan-phone-call-mbs.html">Saudis offered Erdogan money, more investment and the lifting of the Qatari embargo and he refused</a>. In a nicely cynical move, he leaked the offer to make himself look like an honest politician interested only in getting justice for Khashoggi.<br />
<br />
He also got offers from the Trump administration.<br />
<br />
First they extended an embargo waiver for Iranian oil. Then White House looked for ways to extradite the preacher Fethullah Gulen "<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/white-house-weighs-booting-erdogan-foe-u-s-appease-turkey-n933996">to ease Turkish pressure on Saudis</a>". It didn't go over well with career bureaucrats.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="">
Justice Department officials responded to the White House's
request saying the review of Turkey's case against Gulen two years ago
showed no basis for his extradition and that no new evidence to justify
it has emerged, the U.S. officials and others familiar with the requests
said. </div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="">
Trump administration officials then asked for other options to legally remove him, the U.S. officials and others said. </div>
</blockquote>
When that didn't work, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/white-house-weighs-booting-erdogan-foe-u-s-appease-turkey-n933996">Trump made another offer</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Trump and Erdogan also recently discussed another option to relieve
tensions — the release of Turkish banker Mehmet Hakan Atilla, who was
sentenced in May to 32 months in prison by a U.S. federal judge for his
role in a scheme to evade U.S. sanctions against Iran, two people
familiar with the discussion said.</blockquote>
Interestingly, no one is mentioning the <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2018/05/the-looming-halkbank-fine.html">Halkbank fine</a> anymore even though the trial ended almost a year ago. I am sure a reasonable number is being negotiated.<br />
<br />
As a sign of their deep desperation, they offered a bounty of $12 million for PKK's leadership. The offer was met with suspicion and derision with one official saying that "<a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/11/turkey-syria-usa-ankara-wont-be-duped-by-pkk-moves.html">Turkey won't be duped by US in Syria</a>."<br />
<br />
My guess is that Erdogan has a gruesome video of the killing and an incriminating conversation about MBS.<br />
<br />
He is waiting for two reasons.<br />
<br />
The first is to get as much as possible from the Trump Administration. He wants them to reduce the Halkbank fine, give him more room of maneuver in Syria and give him a pass about his increasingly autocratic rule.<br />
<br />
He is also waiting for Trump to fully commit himself to MBS' defense. Besides the rambling "<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/11/trump-releases-statement-support-saudi-arabia/576436/">maybe he did it, maybe he didn't do it</a>" memo, Trump keeps claiming that nobody knows what happened. If Turkey (or the American deep state) released all their information, he would look like a cartoonishly cynical politician.<br />
<br />
And while his ignorant and racist base might not notice, this may cost him the support of many old style conservatives who are increasingly unhappy to see "America the beacon of human rights and freedom" rhetoric being destroyed by Trump's crass Mafioso discourse.<br />
<br />
Needless to say, the degree of the damage will depend on the upcoming scandals. Mueller report must be almost done. Among other issues, they now connected Paul Manafort, Trump's campaign manager to Julian Assange. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/27/manafort-held-secret-talks-with-assange-in-ecuadorian-embassy">He visited Assange several times at the Ecuadorian Embassy</a> before Wikileaks dumped the DNC emails.<br />
<br />
With Trump's tax returns subpoenaed and money laundering schemes exposed by the Democratic majority in the House, Trump will find himself on the defensive and I suspect he will no longer care about MBS.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">American Deep State's End Game</span><br />
<br />
When I first wrote about the Khashoggi murder, I expressed my doubt that MBS would lose his position because of this incident. Since the CIA revelations, I am no longer sure.<br />
<br />
The Haspel move indicated that the Pentagon, the State Department and the intelligence community consider MBS a volatile and unpredictable leader who is likely to further destabilize the region. Look at his list of achievements:<br />
<br />
- Kidnapping and forcing the Lebanese Prime Minister out.<br />
- Attacking Yemen and creating the worst civilian disaster in recent memory with no end in sight.<br />
- Executing the revered Shia leader <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Execution_of_Nimr_al-Nimr">Nimr al-Nimr</a> and increasing the persecution of the Kingdom's Shia minority.<br />
- Imposing a blockade and severing <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017%E2%80%9318_Qatar_diplomatic_crisis">diplomatic and economic ties with Qatar</a> (and <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/07/qatars-insurance-policies-against-saudi.html">trying to invade it</a>).<br />
- Continuously provoking Iran in an effort to start a war.<br />
<br />
In other words, from a long-term American perspective, MBS is no longer a viable leader and the institutional forces which I call the deep state do not want to continue to work with him.<br />
<br />
This is the reason why <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/16/lindsey-graham-says-saudi-crown-prince-bin-salman-has-got-to-go.html">Senators who are Trump allies are pushing for his dismissal</a> in a forceful fashion.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="color: #171717; font-family: "proxima nova"; font-size: 16px;">Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., long one of Saudi Arabia’s most vocal defenders in Congress, said Tuesday that the kingdom’s powerful crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, has “got to go” and vowed never to return to the country as long as the young leader remains in power.</span></blockquote>
There is also the issue that <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/03/intelligence-agencies-are-gunning-for.html">the intelligence community never forgave Trump</a> for his initial attacks on them and his siding with Putin against them. Look at the vociferous tweets of former CIA Director <a href="https://www.vox.com/world/2018/7/16/17576804/trump-putin-meeting-john-brennan-tweet-treasonous">John Brennan accusing Trump of treasonous complicity with Putin</a>.<br />
<br />
In short, very soon, there will be no one, save perhaps Netanyahu, left to defend MBS.<br />
<br />
But Netanyahu is as weakened as MBS himself. His botched <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/kornet-brought-israeli-cabinet-181119055542177.html">Hamas assassination attempt, his unpopular ceasefire</a>, his <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/09/is-netanyahu-on-his-way-out.html">piles of corruption dossiers</a> and the departure of Avigdor Lieberman that left his fragile coalition teetering on the brink are all threat to his political survival. He may not be around after the next elections.<br />
<br />
Domestically, in Saudi Arabia, I am pretty sure that forces within the Royal Family are already circling MBS like sharks watching a prey. If it wasn't for the way he handled the aftermath of the Khashoggi murder he could and would have pushed back ruthlessly. Now he is too exposed to be able to go after his enemies.<br />
<br />
The House of Wahhab wants him gone as do most of the Princes. The ruling elite that always revered stability above all else fear that MBS is incapable of achieving that. And they worry about their own survival.<br />
<br />
The army and the intelligence agencies may no longer have any loyalty to him after he decided to prosecute the Khashoggi team with death penalty hanging over them. You do his dirty deeds and he ends up throwing you under the bus to save his skin.<br />
<br />
Remember Caligula and the Praetorian Guard? These things never end well.<br />
<br />
In that sense, if I were to guess, I would say MBS' days as Crown Prince are numbered. As soon as Trump finds himself in the fight of his life, he will let go of him and that will be enough for his domestic enemies to unseat him.<br />
<br />
And if my theory is correct, this would be a monumental Qatari and Turkish achievement.<br />
----------------------<br />
UPDATE:<br />
<br />
CIA is leaking like nobody's business. <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/cia-intercepts-underpin-assessment-saudi-crown-prince-targeted-khashoggi-1543640460">Wall Street Journal just published this</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman sent at least 11 messages to his<a class="icon none" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-saudi-princes-crackdown-was-confidant-tied-to-khashoggi-killing-1541178150?mod=article_inline"> closest adviser</a>,
who oversaw the team that killed journalist Jamal Khashoggi, in the
hours before and after the journalist’s death in October, according to a
highly classified CIA assessment.</blockquote>
As an aside, let me add that until his detention by MBS, Al-Waleed bin Talal owned 5.5 percent of News Corp (the owner of Wall Street Journal) and <a href="https://observer.com/2017/11/longtime-murdoch-ally-saudi-prince-dumps-1-5b-worth-of-fox-shares/">was considered a close ally of Rupert Murdoch</a>. He was forced to sell all his shares while in custody.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/cia-intercepts-underpin-assessment-saudi-crown-prince-targeted-khashoggi-1543640460">The Journal also noted this:</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The electronic messages sent by Prince Mohammed were to <a class="icon none" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-saudi-princes-crackdown-was-confidant-tied-to-khashoggi-killing-1541178150?mod=article_inline">Saud al-Qahtani</a>,
according to the CIA. Mr. Qahtani supervised the 15-man team that
killed Mr. Khashoggi and, during the same period, was also in direct
communication with the team’s leader in Istanbul, the assessment says.
The content of the messages between Prince Mohammed and Mr. Qahtani
isn’t known, the document says. It doesn’t say in what form the messages
were sent.</blockquote>
<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/cia-intercepts-underpin-assessment-saudi-crown-prince-targeted-khashoggi-1543640460">And this</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The highly classified CIA assessment says that the Saudi team sent to
kill Mr. Khashoggi was assembled from Prince Mohammed’s top security
units in the Royal Guard and in an organization run by Mr. Qahtani, the
Center for Studies and Media Affairs at the Royal Court, the Saudi royal
court’s media department.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“We assess it is highly unlikely this team of operators…carried
out the operation without Muhammed bin Salman’s authorization,” it
says. </blockquote>
<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/cia-intercepts-underpin-assessment-saudi-crown-prince-targeted-khashoggi-1543640460">And it wasn't just the CIA leaking.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
A U.S. official said that the U.S. government has recently developed
information that under Mr. Qahtani, personnel from the Center for
Studies and Media Affairs have for two years engaged in the
kidnapping—sometimes overseas—and detention and harsh interrogation of
Saudis whom the monarchy perceives as a threat. The interrogations have
led to repeated physical harm to the detainees, the official said. </blockquote>
Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-37659353337927325712018-11-02T19:12:00.002+01:002018-11-30T18:47:32.675+01:00Why Was Jamal Khashoggi Killed: A Contrarian Theory<div class="tr_bq">
As my longtime readers will remember, I have a bit of an obsession with Saudi Arabia.<br />
<br />
I have been fascinated by how they spend <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2015/11/is-islam-inherently-violent-religion.html">hundreds of billions of dollars</a> since 1979 to radicalize Muslims everywhere by reducing Islam <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2015/05/islamic-dress-code-alcohol-and.html">to three ostracizing notions</a> through Wahhabi imams they dispatched everywhere. With nary a peep from the West.<br />
<br />
I also expressed my doubts about the economic viability of the Kingdom and pointed to the inherent <a href="http://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2012/07/what-is-happening-in-saudi-arabia.html">risks hidden in their succession</a> mechanisms. <br />
<br />
The Crown Prince <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/12/">Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) dramatically exacerbated the structural flaws</a> of the regime by launching a costly war in Yemen, removing subsidies that kept Saudis docile, ruthlessly eliminating rivals, increasing the oppression of the Shia minority, alienating the ulema and the House of Wahhab and extorting money from prominent Saudi businessmen and royal family members.<br />
<br />
Add to this, his move to invade <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/07/qatars-insurance-policies-against-saudi.html">Qatar to grab their Sovereign Wealth Fund</a>, you have the making of a Shakespearean Crown Prince whose fate may be determined by the numerous domestic and foreign enemies.<br />
<br />
This is the context of the Jamal Khashoggi murder.<br />
<br />
There were three very important elements of the story that made no sense as <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2018/10/mohammed-bin-salman-and-serious.html">I noted at the outset</a>.</div>
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Why Khashoggi?</span><br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ePdR_0uk-ig/W8201LQDGNI/AAAAAAAACTM/328Mf440tBcfkhifnwu0UNToHO8dnzFZQCLcBGAs/s1600/khashoggi02.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="414" data-original-width="992" height="133" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ePdR_0uk-ig/W8201LQDGNI/AAAAAAAACTM/328Mf440tBcfkhifnwu0UNToHO8dnzFZQCLcBGAs/s320/khashoggi02.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/turkey-suggests-khashoggis-remains-consulate-58606473">Jamal Khashoggi</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Why would you have a mild mannered journalist with no discernible domestic constituency killed in a such risky and gruesome manner.<br />
<br />
And why would you do this in a country that stood with Qatar against Saudi Arabia just because the guy said free press is good and the war in Yemen is bad in Washington Post.<br />
<br />
Since then, I found out that Khashoggi was even less of a threat than I realized. It turns out that in his writings in Arabic, Khashoggi was a conservative Islamist who sided with the Saudi regime on almost anything.<br />
<br />
You might be surprised to learn that <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/world/middle-east/2018-10-19-jamal-khashoggi-once-a-friend-of-bin-laden-died-a-critic-of-saudi-arabias-extremism/">he was a believer in Osama bin Laden's</a> jihad and he covered his <a href="https://twitter.com/pspoole/status/1050804806997151745?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1050813590100475905&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fglobalnews.ca%2Fnews%2F4545784%2Fjamal-khashoggi-osama-bin-laden%2F">Mujahideen efforts by joining his army.</a><br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-zUnzihPxr5Q/W83_CizRdeI/AAAAAAAACTY/WjBxvh-fDyQ5E8bzmqWAnt8NPigEAgpYgCLcBGAs/s1600/khashoggi05.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1200" height="480" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-zUnzihPxr5Q/W83_CizRdeI/AAAAAAAACTY/WjBxvh-fDyQ5E8bzmqWAnt8NPigEAgpYgCLcBGAs/s640/khashoggi05.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://twitter.com/pspoole/status/1050804806997151745?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1050813590100475905&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fglobalnews.ca%2Fnews%2F4545784%2Fjamal-khashoggi-osama-bin-laden%2F">The other Jamal Khashoggi</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The guy at the center holding an RPG is him.<br />
<br />
Even if you buy the preposterous notion that bin Laden would allow embedded reporters, does he look like one to you?<br />
<br />
He later advocated <a href="https://consortiumnews.com/2018/10/15/khashoggi-was-no-critic-of-saudi-regime/">the Islamization of Arab politics</a> and viewed secular regimes like Al-Assad's Syria as unreformable.<br />
<br />
And he thought <a href="https://consortiumnews.com/2018/10/15/khashoggi-was-no-critic-of-saudi-regime/">Mohammed Bin Salman was a good reformist.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Khashoggi’s vision was an “Arab uprising” led by the Saudi <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOnYqGvQCaw&t=37s" style="color: black;">regime</a>. In his Arabic writings he backed MbS’s “reforms” and even his “war on corruption,” derided in the region and beyond. He thought that MbS’s arrests of the princes in the Ritz were legitimate (though he mildly <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2017/09/18/saudi-arabia-wasnt-always-this-repressive-now-its-unbearable/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.e1821002e720" style="color: black;">criticized</a> them in a <i>Post</i> column) even as his last sponsoring prince, Al-Walid bin Talal, was locked up in the luxury hotel. Khashoggi even wanted to be an advisor to MbS, who did not trust him and turned him <a href="https://t.co/wlsLqQF0na" style="color: black;">down</a>.</blockquote>
While it is true that his monthly Post columns occasionally mentioned <a href="https://www.apnews.com/6c5335f334064d6f8c272e8d93bd4b02">the importance of free press</a>, they hardly constituted a devastating attack on MBS or the royal family.<br />
<br />
Besides, MBS banned Khashoggi's family to travel abroad. If MBS was so upset about his columns he could have used his son Salah as leverage and shut him up.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Why Turkish Media Play?</span><br />
<br />
The second element that was puzzling was Turkey's daily insistence that they had audio and video proof that Khashoggi was murdered and dismembered by a squad of assassins without ever divulging that evidence.<br />
<br />
But when you think about it, that unusual Turkish tactic served a purpose.<br />
<br />
Those regular leeks kept the narrative alive. One day, it was the gruesome dismemberment, the next, the name of the goons and the next there was the bone saw. And then a musically-oriented autopsy specialist.<br />
<br />
The daily leaks also put MBS in a difficult position about what explanation to push.<br />
<br />
In fact, because Saudi officials didn't know what kind of evidence Turkish authorities had, they were forced to use <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/10/saudi-narrative-khashoggi-killing-changed-20-days-181020082300134.html">trial balloons to test</a> various theories. If it was video, then <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/pompeo-khashoggi-problem-mbs-created-181016145309417.html">rogue elements</a>; just audio, then <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/report-saudis-preparing-report-admitting-khashoggi-died-in-interrogation-gone-wrong">interrogation went wrong</a>, outside audio, then <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/turkey-suggests-khashoggis-remains-consulate-58606473">accidental death in a fist fight</a> and inside audio-video, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-45935823">rogue elements again</a>.<br />
<br />
Turkey's Tayyip Erdogan promised to reveal the audio and video recordings he claimed he had on 23 October but after a brief visit from <a href="https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/">Ms. Torture Gina Haspel he changed his mind</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Haspel’s brief was very simple. She took with her intercept intelligence
that purportedly shows massive senior level corruption in the Istanbul
Kanal project, and suggested that Erdogan may not find it a good idea if
intelligence agencies started to make public all the information they
hold. </blockquote>
Former ambassador <a href="https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/">Craig Murray maintains that</a> the story had legs and put Western government on the defensive because Turkey showed the evidence they had to all the relevant intelligence agencies.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The Turkish account of the murder of Khashoggi given by President
Erdogan is true, in every detail. Audio and video evidence exists and
has been widely shared with world intelligence agencies, including the
US, UK, Russia and Germany, and others which have a relationship with
Turkey or are seen as influential. That is why, despite their desperate
desire to do so, no Western country has been able to maintain support
for Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.</blockquote>
<span style="font-size: large;">Why The Turkish Intelligence Presence?</span><br />
<br />
The third element that is strange is the fact that the Turkish intelligence agents were ready to collect evidence that fateful day.<br />
<br />
Embassies are legitimate intelligence targets and every country tries to spy on foreign delegations. But consulates are rarely relevant to justify expensive surveillance. And clearly, Saudis thought that was the case in Istanbul.<br />
<br />
However, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/21/death-of-dissident-jamal-khashoggi-mohammed-bin-salman">Turkish intelligence officials were there in full force ready to greet the assassins</a>.<br />
<blockquote>
Unbeknown to the Saudis, Turkish intelligence officials from the national spy agency, MIT, were listening in. (...)<br />
<br />
Scenarios range from a bug placed in the consulate itself to a directional microphone focused on the building from outside – both technically within the realms of Turkey’s capabilities.</blockquote>
Craig Murray, who was shown some still pictures from the murder scene, <a href="https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/">suggests that they did not</a> look like they were taken with a fixed camera. The two possibilities are: one, Khashoggi wearing a camera as he went in, which would mean he was expecting to be accosted. In which case, why would he take that risk?<br />
<br />
Two and the more likely explanation is a Skype exchange with Riyadh and there are many unconfirmed reports that the Turks intercepted such a communication. What is interesting is the fact that <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/microsoft-delivers-promised-end-to-end-skype-encryption-option/">Skype conversations are encrypted end-to-end</a> using <a href="https://www.thesslstore.com/blog/what-is-256-bit-encryption/">uncrackable 256 bit AES encryption</a>.<br />
<br />
The only way they could do it is to compel Microsoft to hand them over the video call, as such communications flow through its servers and <a href="https://www.quora.com/Is-Skype-video-calling-safe-How-much-can-we-trust-that-our-video-conversation-would-stay-between-the-people-involved-in-that-chat-only">are routinely decrypted and encrypted before sending them forward</a>.<br />
<br />
The speed with which Turkish authorities gathered this evidence would indicate prior knowledge of the incident.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">A Contrarian Theory of Murder</span><br />
<br />
If, as I and <a href="https://consortiumnews.com/2018/10/15/khashoggi-was-no-critic-of-saudi-regime/">some Middle East experts believe</a>, Jamal Khashoggi would not have been killed for his Washington Post columns, the question then is, what would it take to get MBS overreact and order his murder in Turkey?<br />
<br />
And who would set it up?<br />
<br />
Remember that, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-40926963">unlike previous victims who were drugged or duped to be taken to Saudi Arabia</a> for their eventual disposal, MBS wanted Khashoggi to be questioned right away. Time was of the essence. That's why they tortured him. And why they reported back via Skype.<br />
<br />
My theory is that it was a joint Qatar Turkey intelligence operation with the sole purpose of embarrassing, weakening or perhaps pushing out Mohammed Bin Salman.<br />
<br />
And my guess is that, the plot received substantial support from inside the royal family.<br />
<br />
Let me explain.<br />
<br />
A short while ago, a Jeddah daily <a href="https://consortiumnews.com/2018/10/15/khashoggi-was-no-critic-of-saudi-regime/">accused Khashoggi of secretly meeting</a> the Emir of Qatar at New York's Four Seasons Hotel. <a href="https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.okaz.com.sa%2Farticle%2F1677783%2F&edit-text=&act=url">Here is a Google Translate link</a> of the article. They author even claimed that the Washington Post gig was a gift from Qatar.<br />
<br />
Now, that's a biggie.<br />
<br />
Why would the Emir of Qatar even be in the same room with an insignificant Saudi journalist? What could they have discussed? It had to be something very important for the Emir to talk to Khashoggi.<br />
<br />
MBS had to know. Hook, line, sinker.<br />
<br />
At that point Khashoggi applies for his divorce papers in a Saudi consulate in the US (I can't find the link). On Riyadh's instructions he was told to get them in Istanbul since he was getting married there.<br />
<br />
It's no hardship since his fiancee is in Istanbul. He travels to Turkey and applies to the consulate. They tell him to come back the following week to get his papers.<br />
<br />
While the Saudis get ready to grab him in the consulate, Turkish intelligence agents set up shop around the consulate with all their snooping devices. They have a court order to compel Microsoft to hand over Skype communications originating from the consulate.<br />
<br />
Hatice Cengiz was waiting at the gate. In her shoes how long would you have waited? <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/the-current-for-october-12-2018-1.4859175/alleged-plot-surrounding-missing-saudi-journalist-didn-t-factor-in-his-fianc%C3%A9e-says-lawrence-wright-1.4859179">She waited eleven hours from 1 PM to midnight.</a><br />
<br />
She also immediately alerted pro-government journalists who started asking questions about Khashoggi's disappearance and <a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/10/turkey-saudi-arabia-will-khashoggi-affair-rock-relations.html">the next day they penned incendiary columns</a> branding the incident as a stain on Turkey's honor.<br />
<br />
Turkish authorities immediately declared that Khashoggi was dead and insisted that they had incontrovertible evidence showing his murder.<br />
<br />
They started drip-feeding daily information. The tail number of the planes, the names of the assassins, Khashoggi's call for help, bits of conversation in the consulate, anything.<br />
<br />
In Europe and North America, the story grew bigger by the day. Turkey feeding daily info could not have kept the story at the top of the headlines, especially with Trump doing everything to make it disappear.<br />
<br />
Someone else must have been involved, I thought.<br />
<br />
Then (to my utter surprise) powerful financial forces joined the fray and started pulling out of the Davos in the Desert, which is a brainchild of MBS.<br />
<br />
The <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/10/18/liam-fox-pulls-davos-desert-jamal-khashoggi-allegations/">Dutch, French, UK ministers </a>were the first along with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. World Bank and IMF followed suit.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/21/siemens-boss-joe-kaeser-expected-to-pull-out-of-saudi-conference-over-jamal-khashoggi-death">On the business side</a>, besides Richard Branson, the CEOs of Deutsche Bank, Siemens, ABB, Uber, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/23/business/saudi-arabia-investment-conference/index.html">JP Morgan Chase and Softbank</a> cancelled. Bloomberg, CNN, Financial Times and New York Times withdrew their media sponsorship.<br />
<br />
When was the last time, business titans rebuked a wealthy autocrat?<br />
<br />
These are folks who didn't even raise the issue of tens of thousands of Yemenis being slaughtered by Saudi bombs every day. Why would they let go of an opportunity to make more billions just because a journalist was killed in a diplomatic mission.<br />
<br />
It makes sense only if one of their friends leaned on them and promised future business opportunities if they embarrass MBS further and damage him economically.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-QqBD_KM9coM/W93OS1hXYsI/AAAAAAAACTw/xLXUtqf2gmoO5DawtjncG_DzEuYXdm38gCLcBGAs/s1600/al-waleed%2Bbin%2Btalal.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="405" data-original-width="720" height="180" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-QqBD_KM9coM/W93OS1hXYsI/AAAAAAAACTw/xLXUtqf2gmoO5DawtjncG_DzEuYXdm38gCLcBGAs/s320/al-waleed%2Bbin%2Btalal.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42846282">At Ritz-Carlton Prison</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
There is only one Saudi in the world who can do that and that is Al-Waleed bin Talal.<br />
<br />
The man whom <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-03-20/alwaleed-reveals-secret-deal-struck-to-exit-ritz-after-83-days">MBS imprisoned, tortured, humiliated</a> for 83 days and extorted billions from. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Waleed_bin_Talal">largest individual shareholder of the Citigroup and second largest voting shareholder of the 20th Century Fox</a>.<br />
<br />
Besides being worth $30 billion, he is close friends with Rupert Murdoch, everybody on Wall Street and all the CEOs listed above.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Why Would Qatar and Turkey (Erdogan) Do This?</span><br />
<br />
In Qatar's case the stakes are obvious. The <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/07/qatars-insurance-policies-against-saudi.html">costly embargo is still on </a>and the invasion plans are simply on hold. Weakening and then removing MBS is a critical goal for Qatar.<br />
<br />
In Turkey's case, this is a gift that keeps on giving.<br />
<br />
Saudi Arabia had cooled its relations with Turkey after Erdogan's angry criticisms of Saudi-sponsored could d'etat that toppled Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi. <a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/10/erdogan-phone-call-mbs.html">Now they are begging Erdogan not to release the murder evidence</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The New York Times, citing an unnamed Turkish official, reported that
Saudi Prince Khalid bin Faisal Al Saud, who secretly met with Erdogan
last week in Turkey, had “offered a package of inducements for Turkey to
drop the case — including financial aid and investments to help
Turkey’s struggling economy and to end a Saudi embargo on Qatar, a
Turkish ally.” Erdogan had “angrily rejected” them as a “political
bribe.” </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
It's likely that Prince Mohammed made some fresh offers to Erdogan, who is now clearly in the driver’s seat.</blockquote>
Ending the Qatar embargo was on the table. Can you believe that? And he rejected it as he wants more.<br />
<br />
Wow!<br />
<br />
Erdogan has also pushed Trump in a tight corner.<br />
<br />
Sure, Trump is a cynical and shameless liar, but how do you handle the daily drip-drip information coming from the Turkish side. MBS is Kushner's buddy and Trump's main partner against Iran. If he goes, there goes Trump's entire Middle East policy.<br />
<br />
And Erdogan says he has the goods to make it happen. And he shared them with every intelligence agency that mattered. So Trump cannot afford to attack Erdogan.<br />
<br />
What does Erdogan wants from Trump?<br />
<br />
A <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2018/05/the-looming-halkbank-fine.html">much smaller Halkbank fine</a> would be the first thing. If that happens, you'll know that my crazy contrarian theory makes sense.<br />
<br />
Two, he would insist on Iran oil waivers. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-sanctions/us-grants-eight-countries-iran-sanctions-waivers-bloomberg-idUSKCN1N70OZ">Currently, eight countries have received them</a>, there is still no word about Turkey. If that happens, well, you know what that means.<br />
<br />
Moreover, in the Middle East, this would position Erdogan as the honest broker between Sunni and Shia. Once MBS is out of the way, Al-Sisi of Egypt would become a much lonelier figure and he is the only competition Erdogan has.<br />
<br />
Erdogan deals with Iran on a daily basis and has no (real) problem with them. Every other Sunni country does. So that makes him the go to guy in the region. And that spells regional superpower.<br />
<br />
Finally, that enables Erdogan to present himself as the guy who takes the moral ground, someone who, far from being an autocrat, fights such odious people.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Would This Be Enough to Get Rid of MBS</span><br />
<br />
I don't know.<br />
<br />
Saudi Arabia is doing a little better with $80 barrel price point but the war in Yemen is eating up all the additional revenue.<br />
<br />
If the price goes higher, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/21/saudi-arabia-most-lose-rise-oil-prices-riyadh-weaponise-west">fracking outlets will come back online</a> so MBS does not have much room of maneuver.<br />
<br />
The Aramco IPO is not happening and may never happen.<br />
<br />
On the other hand, King Salman is not lucid and he might not be able to sign a decree to replace MBS with someone else.<br />
<br />
Time will tell.<br />
<br />
-------------------------<br />
UPDATE:<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-46078961">This is from the BBC</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Do the senior princes temper this all-powerful figure by removing
just enough of his powers to appease the US Congress and other Western
bodies, some of which are now calling for an arms boycott? </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Do they "dethrone" him altogether, giving him some titular promotion to a meaningless sinecure? </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Or do they try to weather the storm, as they tried to do, unsuccessfully, after this story broke a month ago?</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
In fact, there are extremely serious discussions going on right now behind closed doors in Saudi royal circles. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9hV8fuE7AFY/W93Pn6Pf9PI/AAAAAAAACT8/oMgritD4WOoF7gAVmN4wQ12oYmq-nQIuQCLcBGAs/s1600/Ahmed%2Bbin%2Babdulaziz.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="562" data-original-width="998" height="180" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9hV8fuE7AFY/W93Pn6Pf9PI/AAAAAAAACT8/oMgritD4WOoF7gAVmN4wQ12oYmq-nQIuQCLcBGAs/s320/Ahmed%2Bbin%2Babdulaziz.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/10/king-salman-brother-returns-riyadh-khashoggi-crisis-181031094006547.html">Returning Brother</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The
gravity of the crisis facing the ruling al-Saud family can be gauged by
the sudden return to Riyadh on Tuesday of Prince Ahmed bin Abdelaziz,
the last surviving full brother of the 82-year old King Salman. </blockquote>
What is interesting is that Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, the last of the <a href="http://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2015/02/the-future-is-bleak-for-house-of-saud.html">Sudairi Seven</a> was convinced that MBS was out to get him for having criticized the war in Yemen and he was living in London in self-imposed exile.<br />
<br />
Some <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/10/king-salman-brother-returns-riyadh-khashoggi-crisis-181031094006547.html">view this as a challenge to MBS</a>. And a power play for the throne.<br />
<br />
MBS was one of the senior people who greeted him at the airport.<br />
<br />
Clearly he is worried.<br />
<br />
------------------------<br />
UPDATE 2<br />
<br />
Turkey's bombastic President Tayyip Erdogan came out with another accusation against MBS and brought Nato in.<br />
<br />
In an <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/11/02/recep-tayyip-erdogan-saudi-arabia-still-has-many-questions-to-answer-about-jamal-khashoggis-killing/">op-ed published in the Washington Post</a>, he maintained that while King Salman was unaware of the plot to kill Jamal Khashoggi, the order was given <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-46077894">by the highest levels of Saudi government</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"We also know that those individuals came to carry out their orders:
Kill Khashoggi and leave. Finally, we know that the order to kill
Khashoggi came from the highest levels of the Saudi government."</blockquote>
If King Salman is out, this could only mean MBS.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-46077894">And for good measure he added this</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"No one should dare to commit such acts on the soil of a Nato ally
again," he said. "If anyone chooses to ignore that warning, they will
face severe consequences."</blockquote>
That is clearly a hint to Trump, reminding him that what happened in Turkey should be seen in the larger context of Nato alliance.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/the-future-of-the-middle-east-depends-on-justice-for-jamal-khashoggi/2018/11/02/d3926a66-deb9-11e8-85df-7a6b4d25cfbb_story.html?utm_term=.8f6df5f5c07f">According to the Washington Post</a>, Egypt's President Al-Sisi and Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu lobbied the White House to protect MBS.<br />
<br />
Curiously, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/the-future-of-the-middle-east-depends-on-justice-for-jamal-khashoggi/2018/11/02/d3926a66-deb9-11e8-85df-7a6b4d25cfbb_story.html?utm_term=.8f6df5f5c07f">Washington Post's editorial board brought Nato in as well to support their argument</a> that MBS should be removed.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Mohammed bin Salman’s advocates argue that holding him accountable would risk turmoil. There is a fundamental illogic to this. The crown prince has already done much to destabilize the region, by leading a military intervention in Yemen, launching a boycott of Qatar and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/saudi-arabia-forcibly-detained-lebanons-prime-minister-sources-say/2017/11/10/b93a1fb4-c647-11e7-84bc-5e285c7f4512_story.html?utm_term=.524830e3b642">kidnapping</a> the Lebanese prime minister. If he is allowed by the United States to get away with murdering a journalist inside a diplomatic facility in a NATO country, what will he be emboldened to do next — and what license will other dictators take, both in the Middle East and elsewhere?</blockquote>
And the silence from the White House and the State Department is deafening.Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-91893690176391507712018-10-12T16:08:00.000+02:002018-10-13T17:33:33.049+02:00Khashoggi Case: How Foreign Investment Will be Affected?In my last post, <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2018/10/mohammed-bin-salman-and-serious.html">I expressed my incredulity</a> about Khashoggi murder being just a botched Saudi operation.<br />
<br />
There were too many unprecedented elements including the massive media attention and unusually strong reactions from Western leaders, including, <a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/10/congress-orders-probe-into-khashoggi-disappearance.html">the US Congress</a> and with some delay, and <a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/10/trump-weighs-saudi-arabia-fate-khashoggi.html?utm_campaign=20181012&utm_source=sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Daily%20Newsletter">some equivocation</a>, The Orange Man.<br />
<br />
All of which is unheard of.<br />
<br />
Now <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45833910">Sir Richard Branson suspended investment talks</a> with Saudi Arabia over the Khashoggi assassination.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<a class="story-body__link-external" href="https://www.virgin.com/richard-branson/my-statement-kingdom-saudi-arabia">In a statement, Sir Richard said:</a>
"What has reportedly happened in Turkey around the disappearance of
journalist Jamal Khashoggi, if proved true, would clearly change the
ability of any of us in the West to do business with the Saudi
Government.</blockquote>
Note the "any of us in the West to do business with the Saudi Government" bit.<br />
<br />
It's not just him, it's any of us.<br />
<br />
When MBS imprisoned, selectively tortured and extorted money from his relatives or when he abducted and made disappear three royal princes in the last three years or when he persisted in killing hundreds of thousands of Yemenis to teach Iran a lesson, did any of these incidents affected the ability of "any of us in the West doing business with the Saudi Government?"<br />
<br />
They did not.<br />
<br />
How likely is it for Sir Richard to give up a cool billion dollars and jeopardize future investment opportunities in the Kingdom because Saudis murdered one of their citizens?<br />
<br />
Remember, nobody even pressured Virgin or questioned this transaction. Nobody knew.<br />
<br />
He volunteered it himself.<br />
<br />
Can you remember another such incident where people gave up Saudi money because Saudi government did something terribly wrong?<br />
<br />
Ever?<br />
<br />
Me neither.<br />
<br />
There is only one plausible explanation.<br />
<br />
There is an expectation that MBS will be pressured to go as a result of this scandal (or rather because of the surprisingly concerted and effective Western reaction to it) and when that happens, those who helped the process by standing up to him will be rewarded.<br />
<br />
That's my take. Tell me what else makes more sense.<br />
<br />
One more thing.<br />
<br />
The Turkish government is toying with MBS.<br />
<br />
There is a drip, drip information leaking they undertake everyday. This time, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45838471">they announced that </a>they have a recording of Jamal Khashoggi being tortured and killed.<br />
<br />
Once again, they did not share it with the media. They simply asserted that they have the recording.<br />
<br />
Without knowing what they have Saudis are unable to issue specific denials.<br />
<br />
More importantly, since these audio and video recordings would have to come from inside the consulate (his smartwatch wouldn't have video), meaning from Turkish intelligence assets working there, why would they expose them over a story like this?<br />
<br />
Would they burn their assets for a murdered foreign journalist? Of course not.<br />
<br />
It is as if they want to see what they can get from MBS to make the whole thing go away.<br />
<br />
Maybe the price is Mohammed Bin Salman giving up his dreams of becoming the king.<br />
<br />
We live in interesting times as I say frequently.<br />
<br />
You know what? Since I went out on a limb with a theory no one even contemplates, let me put forth this additional speculation.<br />
<br />
I wouldn't be surprised if, at some point, we found out that Waleed Bin Talal was somehow associated with all this.<br />
<br />
At least on the Western end of things.<br />
<br />
Yeah, interesting and cynical times.<br />
----------------<br />
UPDATE:<br />
<br />
I changed the title after finding out that Jim Kim, the head of the World Bank has <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45848603">pulled out of the Future Investment Initiative</a> conference that is going to take place on 23 October in Riyadh. For now IMF chief Christine Lagarde and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are still participating but this could change.<br />
<br />
In the next few days, if more businesspeople follow the example of Sir Richard then we could safely assume that MBS is outmaneuvered and cornered. I don't think he will give up his position but he will be much weakened for his enemies to take him on without fear.<br />
<br />
By the way, UN Secretary General <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45848603">Antonio Guterres joined the chorus</a> and called on the Saudis to come clean.<br />
<br />
The pressure is mounting.<br />
________<br />
UPDATE 2<br />
<br />
A former <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/12/saudi-isolation-grows-over-khashoggi-disappearance">British foreign secretary Sir Malcolm Rifkind,</a> called for the removal of MBS and if that doesn't happen sanctions to punish Saudi Arabia.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“If the current crown prince remains in power for the indefinite future,
then in the first instance the United Kingdom must work with the United
States, France and other countries to see if there can be a combined
response, a punishment of some kind, of sanctions of some kind."</blockquote>
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-45850514">Do you know who joined the "punish the Saudis" chorus</a> a little later?<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
In an interview with CBS News, <a class="story-body__link-external" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/president-donald-trump-vows-severe-punishment-if-saudi-arabia-is-behind-saudi-missing-journalist/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7d&linkId=58136400">Mr Trump said that, if true, the fact that a journalist was murdered was "terrible and disgusting".</a></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"We're going to get to the bottom of it and there will be severe punishment," he said. "As of this moment, they deny it vehemently. Could it be them? Yes," he added.</blockquote>
As for the Davos of the Desert, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/12/saudi-isolation-grows-over-khashoggi-disappearance">Guardian reports that</a>, besides Sir Richard Branson, Viacom and Uber pulled out.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/12/saudi-isolation-grows-over-khashoggi-disappearance">Moreover,</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The Financial Times and CNN said they were pulling out as media
sponsors, with all CNN’s anchors withdrawing from the event. Bloomberg
also pulled out. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The New York Times withdrew its sponsorship two days ago, prompting a
string of withdrawals across the globe, including of Ariana Huffington,
the LA Times owner, Dr Patrick Soon-Shiong, and the CNBC anchor Andrew
Ross Sorkin.</blockquote>
When Saudi Arabia realizes that they can put all this behind them by simply removing the Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman will be in trouble.<br />
<br />
Especially now that Trump is not firmly on his side.<br />
<br />
And Jared has no reason to be nice to him as <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2018/08/did-tillerson-stop-invasion-of-qatar.html">Qatar took care of his mortgage problem</a>.Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-6004724668783211772018-10-11T10:18:00.002+02:002018-10-11T11:27:13.283+02:00Mohammed Bin Salman and Serious Questions About the Khashoggi CaseMohammed Bin Salman, aka MBS, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince and de facto ruler, struck again.<br />
<br />
Jamal Khashoggi, a self-exiled Saudi journalist was allegedly killed in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. On 2 October, he went in to get a copy of his divorce papers and he never came back out.<br />
<br />
His Turkish fiancee, Hatice Cengiz, who was waiting outside the building, alerted the Turkish police. And, uncharacteristically, they immediately launched an investigation.<br />
<br />
There was a media frenzy with pro-government pundits <a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/10/turkey-saudi-arabia-khashoggi-erdogan-difficult-situation.html">pondering how much of an insult</a> was this to Turkey and reporters speculating about the way the guy was murdered. It was pandemonium.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Rcissrsy-kg/W77_VwqiKYI/AAAAAAAACSM/ERKC-PhjJuYOtNeAJP7rcW9ai8QN8UYzQCLcBGAs/s1600/khashoggi.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="666" data-original-width="1000" height="213" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Rcissrsy-kg/W77_VwqiKYI/AAAAAAAACSM/ERKC-PhjJuYOtNeAJP7rcW9ai8QN8UYzQCLcBGAs/s320/khashoggi.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://saudigazette.com.sa/article/544984/World/Saudi-official-dismisses-reports-Jamal-Khashoggi-killed-at-consulate-in-Istanbul">Jamal Khashoggi</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Clearly taken aback, Saudi Arabia issued a statement that Khashoggi was indeed missing but <a href="http://saudigazette.com.sa/article/544984/World/Saudi-official-dismisses-reports-Jamal-Khashoggi-killed-at-consulate-in-Istanbul">denied any knowledge on his whereabouts</a>. Turkish authorities started an investigation.<br />
<br />
On 5 October, MBS told Reuters that Turkish authorities are welcome to search the building.<br />
<br />
The next day, anonymous sources within <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45812399">Turkish police told the media</a> that they knew that Khashoggi was killed by a special squad that came from Riyadh. They alleged that the Saudi <i><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassins">Hashishin</a></i> dismembered the body and took the pieces out of the country.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45812399">They had a lot of details</a>, including how many assassins, their names, their cars and private jets and of course, juicy bits about dismemberment.<br />
<br />
But they offered no evidence for these claims and didn't reveal how they knew all of that.<br />
<br />
By that time, practically frothing at the mouth, Turkey's pugnacious president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, also known by his initials RTE, jumped into the fray and declared that Riyadh should prove its claim that that Khashoggi left the consulate.<br />
<br />
Then there was a massive international reaction.<br />
<br />
While Trump was MIA, his Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was calling for a full-out and transparent investigation. And EU Policy <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-politics-dissident-eu/eu-expects-investigation-of-khashoggi-disappearance-mogherini-says-idUSKCN1MJ1AA">Chief Federica Mogherini seconded him right away</a> echoing his demands.<br />
<br />
Not to be left behind, and probably encouraged by the unexpected publicity the case was getting, the UN's Human Rights Office "<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-politics-dissident-un/u-n-calls-on-turkey-saudi-arabia-to-investigate-journalist-disappearance-idUSKCN1MJ0VZ?il=0">voiced deep concern (...) urged the two countries to investigate</a>" with a whiff of outrage:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“Yes, this is of serious concern, the apparent enforced disappearance
of Mr Khashoggi from the Saudi consulate in Istanbul,” U.N. human
rights spokeswoman Ravina Shamdasani told a Geneva news briefing. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div>
<div class="DPSlot_container StandardArticleBody_dp-slot-inline">
<div class="DPSlot_ad-container" id="dpslot_native_13272452_USKCN1MJ0VZ">
</div>
</div>
</div>
“If reports of his death and the extraordinary circumstances leading up to it are confirmed, this is truly shocking,” she said. </blockquote>
The same day, UK's foreign secretary <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-45804749">Jeremy Hunt called the Saudi ambassador</a> and demanded an explanation.<br />
<br />
At that point, my head exploded with questions.<br />
<br />
This whole really tragic and unfortunate incident is also so odd that I am at a loss for an explanation.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Why Jamal Khashoggi?</span><br />
<br />
It is no secret that the House of Saud dislikes dissent intensely. I know that's putting it very mildly. And MBS is even more thin-skinned than all his predecessors. So he and his predecessors <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/Saudi-Arabia-long-and-dark-history-abductions-1848677102">ordered abductions, murder and other punitive actions</a> with gleeful abandon.<br />
<br />
Just focusing on MBS, in 2016, in Geneva, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/15/saudi-arabia-new-details-of-dissident-princes-abductions-emerge">his thugs drugged and violently abducted Prince Sultan bin Turki bin Abdulaziz</a>, a nephew of the late King Fahd for being critical of Saudi leadership.<br />
<br />
In late 2015, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-40926963">Prince Turki bin Bandar</a>, a former police major turned Youtube activist disappeared in Paris. Also in 2015, a minor royal and dissident Prince Saud bin Said al-Nasr vanished in Italy.<br />
<br />
In these instances, you could say that MBS had a point in getting worried. These guys were members of the House of Saud and they called for extensive reforms and even some form of democracy. And their online activities drew a decent following in Saudi Arabia.<br />
<br />
None of it is true for Khashoggi. There was almost no need to worry about him. He had a monthly column in the Washington Post, he appeared on US TV programs. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45817736">His tone was measured</a>, he hardly criticized MBS or anyone else, other than suggesting a one man rule was not good for the Kingdom.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
A critic of the crown prince, Mr Khashoggi was living in self-imposed
exile in the US and writing opinion pieces for the Washington Post
before his disappearance.<br />
A former editor of the al-Watan
newspaper, he was for years seen as close to the Saudi royal family. He
served as an adviser to senior Saudi officials.</blockquote>
Why kill that guy? Why go to the trouble of sending a 15-strong death squad in two private jets, dismember him and smuggle him out of the country and risk at some major negative fallout.<br />
<br />
He was not a threat to the House of Saud.<br />
<br />
I can see the deterrent value of the vanishing princes. I am sure, as a result of their disappearance, other minor royals became more circumspect, especially when you also take into account his hotel-prison stunt to extort $100 billion from much more important relatives.<br />
<br />
But Khashoggi? Why?<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Why the Extensive Media Coverage and Diplomatic Pushback?</span><br />
<br />
I summarized the reactions. They are simply unprecedented.<br />
<br />
Saudi Arabia is probably the worst or the second worst dictatorship in the world. Some days the House of Kim is ahead, on others the House of Saud takes the lead. Yet nothing they do makes it into Western headlines. They kill, behead, abduct, torture with impunity.<br />
<br />
Do you remember reading about the three princes recently abducted? Of course not.<br />
<br />
They are killing millions of Yemenis. You read one or two articles every two months deploring the tragedy and that's about it.<br />
<br />
Think about it for a second: <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/09/jeremy-hunt-warns-saudis-over-khashoggi-disappearance">Since when Jeremy Hunt gets upset</a> over the disappearance of a relatively unknown Saudi writer? The May government would not even bring up the human tragedy in Yemen <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/02/uk-confirms-saudi-crown-prince-mohammed-bin-salman-visit-180227152430985.html">for fear of losing arms deals</a>.<br />
<br />
Why the reaction for Jamal Khashoggi?<br />
<br />
The only reaction that made sense was Trump's as he was using the regular rulebook.<br />
<br />
When asked whether he talked to the Saudi ambassador, he said that he did not but he would at some point. He added that he knew nothing right now. He corrected himself and said “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trumps-utter-amorality-was-exposed-this-weekend/2018/10/09/a4422bbe-cc05-11e8-a3e6-44daa3d35ede_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c76267e78f05">I know what everybody else knows — nothing.”</a><br />
<br />
That's what I expected from the other leaders as this is how they normally deal with Saudi horrors.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45817736">Then this happened</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Mr Trump told reporters he had talked to the Saudi authorities "at the highest level" about Mr Khashoggi. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Mr
Khashoggi, a US resident and critic of the Saudi monarchy, entered the
Saudi consulate in Istanbul on 2 October and has not been seen since. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Turkish authorities say Mr Khashoggi was killed. Saudi Arabia denies this.<br />
"We cannot let this happen to reporters, to anybody," Mr Trump said on Wednesday.<br />
"We're demanding everything. We want to see what's going on there."</blockquote>
This is surreal. In less than 12 hours this is a complete about face. From Mr Double Down!<br />
<br />
Are you kidding me?<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Why Turkey?</span><br />
<br />
Why did MBS chose Turkey for this operation?<br />
<br />
Khashoggi is a frequent traveller and they could have lured him to a trap like they did with the three abducted princes.<br />
<br />
In case his disappearance became public (as it did) it would be a safe assumption that Turkey would not be as malleable as, say, the UK, since it sided with Qatar in last year's Gulf showdown and its president and ruling party adore Muslim Brotherhood, MBS' bete noire.<br />
<br />
Besides, Erdogan does not expect any more investment from Saudi Arabia and has no reason to accommodate MBS. This was evident <a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/10/turkey-saudi-arabia-khashoggi-erdogan-difficult-situation.html">from Erdogan's initial reaction</a> when he demanded proof:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Erdogan told reporters on Oct. 8, during a press conference in
Budapest with Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban, that it was
“Turkey’s political and humane duty” to follow this affair closely with
all the means available to it. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“Consulate officials <a href="http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/gundem/son-dakika-cumhurbaskani-erdogan-buradan-cikti-diyerek-kendinizi-kurtaramazsiniz-40980678" target="_blank">cannot exonerate themselves</a> by simply saying [Khashoggi] left the premises. If he did, then they have to prove this with visual material,” Erdogan said.</blockquote>
In fact, pro-government <a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/10/turkey-saudi-arabia-will-khashoggi-affair-rock-relations.html">pundits began agitating the very next day</a> of Khashoggi's disappearance calling it a matter of honor for Turkey.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Aktay later penned <a href="https://www.yenisafak.com/yazarlar/yasinaktay/sorulursa-cemal-kasikcinin-gunahi-neydi-2047611" target="_blank">op-eds</a>
on the affair for pro-government Yeni Safak daily, stating that it was a
“matter of international honor for Turkey” to find out the truth. “What
happened to Khashoggi in Turkey, to put it bluntly, is not only an
operation against him, but also an operation against Turkey,” he wrote
Oct. 6.</blockquote>
Another pro-government pundit warned of <a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/10/turkey-saudi-arabia-khashoggi-erdogan-difficult-situation.html">dire consequences for Saudi Arabia</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“If Saudi Arabia had a journalist and dissident murdered at a diplomatic mission in a foreign country, it deserves to be <a href="https://www.dailysabah.com/columns/yahya_bostan/2018/10/08/where-is-the-saudi-journalist" target="_blank">designated a rogue state</a> more than any other nation in the world,” Bostan wrote. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“If Jamal Khashoggi has indeed been killed at the Saudi Consulate in
Istanbul, there will be legal, political and diplomatic consequences,”
he added. </blockquote>
Whoever in MBS' inner circle thought that this would be a walk in the park seriously underestimated the political mood and open animosity in Turkey.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">How Did The Turkish Authorities Know What Happened?</span><br />
<br />
Another puzzling element is the detailed narrative about Khashoggi's fate within 48 hours of the incident that was serviced to the media. Anonymous sources within the Turkish security establishment knew everything and didn't mind sharing that knowledge.<br />
<br />
They had the entire story ready for the media.<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-n-Hvk9smBds/W78CkOKl4uI/AAAAAAAACSY/WL4EN8ZsDgcuHi4ZU0TTxpCh9zi8zYpPQCLcBGAs/s1600/khashoggi01.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="624" height="179" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-n-Hvk9smBds/W78CkOKl4uI/AAAAAAAACSY/WL4EN8ZsDgcuHi4ZU0TTxpCh9zi8zYpPQCLcBGAs/s320/khashoggi01.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45812399">Source: BBC</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
How could they have known that two Saudi jets brought in 15 assassins to kill the journalist?<br />
<br />
How could they have known that his body was in a black van that left at the same time as two black Mercedeses?<br />
<br />
More importantly, why did the Turkish authorities point the finger when there is no body and no evidence of foul play against such a powerful regional ally?<br />
<br />
Normally, Turkey's Islamist government would stay silent in such situations as it wouldn't want to offend the House of Saud whose largess is appreciated by all Middle East countries.<br />
<br />
In fact, even without such concerns, the typical police response would be that they were investigating to determine if there was any foul play.<br />
<br />
In this instance, they were too happy to share every detail they had and more.<br />
<br />
So you say, good questions but do you have any answers?<br />
<br />
I don't and I doubt that anyone has any at this point.<br />
<br />
But let me venture a guess.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">My Speculation</span><br />
<br />
I would not be surprised if this is the beginning of a complicated plot to get rid of Mohammed bin Salman.<br />
<br />
He alienated the House of Wahhab and the House of Saud. The entire royal family is scared of him and hates him.<br />
<br />
He insists on pursuing a ruinous war in Yemen that is killing hundreds of thousands and depleting the Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund. His initial popularity is in the wane as he had to remove major subsidies to pay for his war.<br />
<br />
And he is not even the King right now. There are many concerned countries around the world about his brash decisions and his hothead temperament. He is a man capable of starting a war with Iran that could engulf the whole region, including Turkey and Israel.<br />
<br />
That speculation would go a long way of explaining the botched operation in Turkey, the swift and extensive media and diplomatic reactions to the case and the surprising about-face of Donald Trump.<br />
<br />
This is just a speculation along the lines of <a href="https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/arthur_conan_doyle_134512">Sir Arthur Conan Doyle</a>. We'll see in due course.<br />
<br />
But if a palace coup happens your resident contrarian will not be shocked.Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-19401134613267107832018-10-03T18:40:00.002+02:002018-10-04T18:50:03.701+02:00Did Republicans Deplore Trump Mocking Dr Ford?No they did not.<br />
<br />
But it was reported that they did.<br />
<br />
You see The Orange Man couldn't help himself, he is a narcissistic bully, so he organized a rally in Mississippi and mocked Dr Christine Blasey Ford and her testimony.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45736951">This is what he said:</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The audience laughed as the president said: "Thirty-six years ago
this happened: I had one beer! Well, you think it was…? Nope! It was one
beer. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"Oh, good. How'd you get home? I don't remember. How'd you get there? I don't remember. Where was the place? I don't remember. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"How many years ago was it? I don't know. I don't know. I don't know! I don't know! What neighbourhood was it in? I don't know. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"Where's
the house? I don't know! Upstairs, downstairs, where was it? I don't
know! But I had one beer. That's the only thing I remember. And a man's
life is in tatters."</blockquote>
The BBC (not the Fox News) reported that the Republicans deplored his remarks.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-TE7NKBz7glc/W7TuwvlrjDI/AAAAAAAACRo/99uj-1ozr-YnWfa71lc_SPh8DrR91AUkACLcBGAs/s1600/Kavanaugh%2Brepublicans.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1036" height="640" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-TE7NKBz7glc/W7TuwvlrjDI/AAAAAAAACRo/99uj-1ozr-YnWfa71lc_SPh8DrR91AUkACLcBGAs/s640/Kavanaugh%2Brepublicans.jpg" width="414" /></a></div>
<br />
Who are the Republicans who deplored his remarks? Any senior member? Anyone from the Senate leadership? Mitch McConnell? Lindsey Graham?<br />
<br />
No. It was just Jeff Flake who said:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"To discuss something this sensitive at a political rally is just not right. It's just not right. I wish he hadn't had done it."</blockquote>
But he did not say that he would vote against Brett Kavanaugh.<br />
<br />
And the other deplorer of the deplorable in chief was the venerable Susan Collins from Maine. She also refused to say how she would vote. <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Ms Collins, a moderate Republican from Maine, has not yet said whether she will vote for Judge Kavanaugh either. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<br />
"The president's comments were just plain wrong," she told reporters on Wednesday.</blockquote>
This is how corporate media launder Republican talking points.Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-59323590699468521132018-10-02T23:43:00.004+02:002018-10-07T14:21:19.368+02:00Will Brett Kavanaugh Be Confirmed?He will be.<br />
<br />
Unless the FBI finds a smoking gun, which I seriously doubt (and <a href="https://www.thecut.com/2018/09/mark-judge-kavanaugh-prep-school-new-yorker.html">Mark Judge's ex-girlfriend's story</a> will not cut it), Kavanaugh will be voted in before the end of this week.<br />
<br />
Well, let me go all in. He will be confirmed even if the FBI finds a smoking gun.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45714370">This is what Mitch McConnell said yesterday</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"The goal posts keep shifting," he said as he accused Democrats of
attempting to derail the nomination. "But the goal hasn't moved an inch. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"The time for endless delay and obstruction has come to a close."</blockquote>
They need him on the bench and they need him badly.<br />
<br />
Brett Kavanaugh is a partisan hack who was nominated not because he will overturn Roe v. Wade, which he will, but because, as a Supreme Court Justice, he will give his imprimatur to more deregulation and more restrictions of workers' and consumers' rights and he will acquiesce to anything on the Republican agenda, including extreme gerrymandering and voter suppression.<br />
<br />
If Roe v Wade was as important as the corporate media claim, Trump would have nominated <a href="http://www.scotusblog.com/2018/07/potential-nominee-profile-amy-coney-barrett/">Amy Coney Barrett</a> or someone like her.<br />
<br />
What the Republicans want is a pro-business hack who will push the Koch brothers' agenda <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/30/climate/epa-trump-mercury-rule.html">with gleeful abandon.</a><br />
<br />
This is so important that they would happily risk a major short term defeat to get it done.<br />
<br />
And now that they've paid the piper and alienated millions of women they cannot afford not to have Kavanaugh confirmed.<br />
<br />
What about Jeff Flake and <a href="https://www.eschatonblog.com/2018/10/jeff-flake-american-hero.html">his courageous stand</a> you say.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VoID56WdppA/W7C7vMk15uI/AAAAAAAACQ4/SBJxAmdDCLI9tdUcUBoJexKG65_4CPOxACLcBGAs/s1600/Jeff%2BFlake.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="579" data-original-width="1099" height="168" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VoID56WdppA/W7C7vMk15uI/AAAAAAAACQ4/SBJxAmdDCLI9tdUcUBoJexKG65_4CPOxACLcBGAs/s320/Jeff%2BFlake.jpg" width="320" /></a>Well, I can tell you that it wasn't done because of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-45691422/kavanaugh-the-woman-behind-that-elevator-pitch-to-jeff-flake">Anna Maria Archilla's elevator tirade</a>.<br />
<br />
The investigation was introduced to <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-confusion-surrounding-the-fbis-renewed-investigation-of-brett-kavanaugh">provide cover to Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins</a> for this week's confirmation vote.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.emptywheel.net/2018/09/29/jeff-flakes-investigation-is-a-predicable-trumpian-sham/">Now they will all vote yes</a> (plus the Democrat Joe Manchin) and point to the new investigation that uncovered no new evidence to defend their decision.<br />
<br />
If you don't believe me <a href="https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/white-house-authorizes-fbi-scope-expand">check out the reports that FBI is refusing</a> to interview people who came forward about Kavanaugh lying under oath.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<blockquote>
According to a Sunday New Yorker article, multiple people
have tried to go to the FBI with pertinent information about Kavanaugh,
only to be stymied by seemingly unorganized and uninterested agents. (...)<br />
<br />
Another is an unnamed Yale classmate who wanted to
corroborate Deborah Ramirez’s accusation that Kavanaugh had exposed
himself to her at a college party. “I thought it was going to
be an investigation, but instead it seems it’s just an alibi for
Republicans to vote for Kavanaugh,” the unnamed Yale classmate told the
New Yorker. </blockquote>
</blockquote>
No kidding.<br />
<br />
Moreover, throughout the process the so-called liberal media has been providing a helping hand to the Republicans and will continue to do the same.<br />
<br />
Okay, you say, you are making very radical statements but where is your evidence?<br />
<br />
I am glad you asked.<br />
<br />
Let's start with my claim that Brett Kavanaugh is a partisan hack.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">The History of Brett Kavanaugh's Partisan Hackery</span><br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-iEE-DdR0pPA/W7HHtJvpJVI/AAAAAAAACRc/4P0Nkx3Ow8k6Sf6rv7lNbwkoU6pWwR31gCLcBGAs/s1600/Kavanaugh2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="449" data-original-width="800" height="179" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-iEE-DdR0pPA/W7HHtJvpJVI/AAAAAAAACRc/4P0Nkx3Ow8k6Sf6rv7lNbwkoU6pWwR31gCLcBGAs/s320/Kavanaugh2.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/08/18/639653174/brett-kavanaugh-investigated-a-president-then-voiced-concerns-about-doing-just-t">Starr Pupil</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
At the young age of 33, Brett Kavanaugh was one of the main authors of the Starr Report that was used to impeach Bill Clinton for having oral sex with Monica Lewinsky.<br />
<br />
That is fine.<br />
<br />
But what is not fine is the fact that, in that capacity, he tried to link <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2016/11/why-people-dislike-hillary-clinton.html">every nasty Clinton rumor</a> to the final report, including <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/08/20/politics/kavanaugh-clinton-starr-lewinsky-memo/index.html">the suicide of Vince Foster</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Recently opened National Archives records from the 1990s independent counsel probe reveal some of Kavanaugh's actions, including his aggressive pursuit of documents tied to Vince Foster, a top Clinton administration lawyer who committed suicide.</blockquote>
His work was driven by his hatred for <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/08/20/politics/kavanaugh-clinton-starr-lewinsky-memo/index.html">Bill Clinton which was obvious</a> in his memo to Ken Starr:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"The President has disgraced his Office, the legal system, and the American people by having sex with a 22-year-old intern and turning her life into shambles -- callous and disgusting behavior that has somehow gotten lost in the shuffle," Kavanaugh wrote in an August 15, 1998, memo to Starr and other lawyers. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"He should be forced to account for all of that and to defend his actions. It may not be our job to impose sanctions on him, but it is our job to make his pattern of revolting behavior clear -- piece by painful piece," he wrote.</blockquote>
I'll leave it up to you to appreciate the irony.<br />
<br />
Kavanaugh's next career move was to take on the representation of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eli%C3%A1n_Gonz%C3%A1lez">Elian Gonzalez</a> in order to stop his Cuban father to gain the five-year-old's custody. This was done at the urging of the then Florida governor Jeb Bush, who became his patron saint.<br />
<br />
He then represented Jebster in <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article214604235.html">his quest to set up a voucher program</a> to support private religious schools in Florida.<br />
<br />
Finally, he became a major figure in the GOP efforts to lobby the Supreme Court to stop the Florida recount paving the way to Bush presidency.<br />
<br />
Because of this trajectory, when W nominated him to the <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article214604235.html">United States Court of Appeal for the District of Columbia Circus</a>, during his confirmation hearings, Dick Durbin called him the “Forrest Gump of Republican politics … whether it’s Elian Gonzalez or the Starr Report, you are there.”<br />
<br />
When Kavanaugh's confirmation stalled for three years, W made him his staff secretary between 2003-2006. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/brett-kavanaugh-bushs-intellectual-body-man/2018/08/24/7c6b989e-a0d8-11e8-b562-1db4209bd992_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.6ccc42b3456b">It doesn't sound like an important job but it was</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
[Kavanaugh] wielded extraordinary influence as the adviser responsible for screening, reviewing and editing documents delivered to Bush, interviews and documents show.<br />
“Ultimately, the umpire was Brett,” said Karl Rove, a Bush adviser and one of the people Kavanaugh worked with closely as staff secretary.</blockquote>
He was behind every controversial decision, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/brett-kavanaugh-bushs-intellectual-body-man/2018/08/24/7c6b989e-a0d8-11e8-b562-1db4209bd992_story.html?utm_term=.074a2122a86a">including Global War on Terrorism (GWOT), torture of enemy combatants and warrantless wiretapping</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Documents and interviews show that while Kavanaugh was not a policymaker, he was directly involved in helping the White House manage a wide array of sensitive matters, including the war on terrorism, the treatment of enemy combatants and warrantless wiretapping. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“It put Kavanaugh at the center of every political and policy decision at the Bush White House,” said Peter Irons, professor emeritus at the University of California at San Diego and author of several books about the Supreme Court. “He is exactly the kind of person that the legal conservative movement wants on the court.”</blockquote>
His Appeals Court nomination was finally approved in 2006. His ideologically driven <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brett_Kavanaugh">partisan approach was evident there as well</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
An analysis found that Kavanaugh had the most or second-most conservative voting record on the D.C. Court, in every policy area, in period 2003 to 2018.</blockquote>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6rJZb8QwWgs/W7D8yCwHJYI/AAAAAAAACRE/_76JJ_cH0JYrXL0bVH5KPcqq9mGldb03ACLcBGAs/s1600/Kock%2Bbrothers.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="371" data-original-width="660" height="177" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6rJZb8QwWgs/W7D8yCwHJYI/AAAAAAAACRE/_76JJ_cH0JYrXL0bVH5KPcqq9mGldb03ACLcBGAs/s320/Kock%2Bbrothers.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44385053">Koch brothers</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
This is why he is the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/sep/26/koch-brothers-americans-for-prosperity-rightwing-political-group">Koch Brothers' wet dream</a>.<br />
<br />
In case you don't know who they are, this <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2010/08/30/covert-operations">dynamic duo founded and funded the Tea Party</a> and they are behind <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/sep/26/koch-brothers-americans-for-prosperity-rightwing-political-group">every conservative effort</a> to bust unions and remove environmental regulations.<br />
<br />
They are octogenarian billionaires who will leave behind a sinking planet without much oxygen to their coal-rich grandchildren.<br />
<br />
In fact, Kavanaugh's record is so bad that the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-wont-release-kavanaugh-white-house-documents-1536016137">White House refused to release his emails and policy opinions</a> even though <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/review-kavanaughs-documents-as-needed-then-proceed/2018/07/29/4b6512a8-9056-11e8-8322-b5482bf5e0f5_story.html?utm_term=.91165b367448">it is the accepted practice to do so</a>.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZCxUG_aFH3o/W7EAZSwbWaI/AAAAAAAACRQ/kWRavqK3iOo8Wlxa2hGrKxbpCDIHDtFNACLcBGAs/s1600/Kavanaugh.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1067" data-original-width="1600" height="213" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZCxUG_aFH3o/W7EAZSwbWaI/AAAAAAAACRQ/kWRavqK3iOo8Wlxa2hGrKxbpCDIHDtFNACLcBGAs/s320/Kavanaugh.jpeg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/151440/brett-kavanaugh-disqualified-supreme-court">Picture of Judicial Temperament</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
In any event, even if Kavanaugh's history of far-right decision making and ideological hackery failed to convinced you, <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/151440/brett-kavanaugh-disqualified-supreme-court">take a look at his partisan outburst</a> during the Blasey Ford hearings.<br />
<br />
In his angry tirade, he brought up conspiracy theories against Clintons, he insulted and belittled Democratic senators (he even accused one of blacking out for heavy drinking) and he lashed out at everyone who stood between him and the court chair he firmly believed he deserved.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/02/kavanaugh-impartial-justice-testimony">And he issued a threat:</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“You have replaced ‘advise and consent’ with ‘search and destroy,’” he
chastised Democrats, warning moments later: “What goes around comes
around.”</blockquote>
That's judicial temperament for you.<br />
<br />
Not surprisingly, none of these facts made it into coherent pieces in the mainstream media.<br />
<br />
There were a few bits here and there but to my knowledge, no one said, well, he is a thoroughly partisan hack and this is his history of hackery and look at the shameful playacting to defend his nomination.<br />
<br />
Instead most media outlets praised (or made room for those who did) his judicial temperament and his oversized intellect.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Brett Kavanaugh The Brilliant Jurist and Carpool Dad</span><br />
<br />
Ah yes.<br />
<br />
From the beginning, we got interminable narratives about what a great guy he was.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/brett-kavanaugh-supporters_us_5ba12864e4b04d32ebfd446d?ax6&guccounter=1">And it wasn't just the usual suspects</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="content-list-component yr-content-list-text text" data-rapid-cpos="3" data-rapid-parsed="subsec" data-rapid-subsec="paragraph">
<a data-rapid-parsed="slk" data-rapid_p="2" data-v9y="1" data-ylk="subsec:paragraph;cpos:3;elm:context_link;itc:0" href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/lisa-blatt-brett-kavanvaugh_us_5b885424e4b0511db3d64064" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Lisa Blatt</a>, a self-described ”<a data-rapid-parsed="slk" data-rapid_p="3" data-v9y="1" data-ylk="subsec:paragraph;cpos:3;elm:context_link;itc:0" href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/08/02/im-a-liberal-feminist-heres-why-i-support-judge-kavanaugh-219081" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">liberal Democrat and feminist</a>,” wrote a piece in Politico telling the Supreme Court to confirm Kavanaugh and even introduced him at his Senate Judiciary Committee confirmation hearing, giving him a boost of bipartisan credibility. </div>
</blockquote>
<a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/brett-kavanaugh-supporters_us_5ba12864e4b04d32ebfd446d?ax6">Did I mention that he was a great guy:</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="content-list-component yr-content-list-text text" data-rapid-cpos="2" data-rapid-parsed="subsec" data-rapid-subsec="paragraph">
“I don’t know Kavanaugh the judge. But <a data-rapid-parsed="slk" data-rapid_p="1" data-v9y="1" data-ylk="subsec:paragraph;cpos:2;elm:context_link;itc:0" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/i-dont-know-kavanaugh-the-judge-but-kavanaugh-the-carpool-dad-is-one-great-guy/2018/07/10/a1866a2c-8446-11e8-9e80-403a221946a7_story.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Kavanaugh the carpool dad</a> is one great guy,” read the headline for one Washington Post op-ed by Julie O’Brien, a woman who knows Kavanaugh through their daughters’ school. </div>
</blockquote>
His impressive credentials were praised by moderate <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/courts/supreme-court-nominee-brett-kavanaugh-strong-start-gop-moderates-court-watchers-say">GOP senators like Murkowski and Collins</a>.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.scotusblog.com/2018/07/introduction-a-close-look-at-judge-brett-kavanaugh/">Moreover,</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Almost immediately after Kavanaugh’s nomination, nearly three dozen of his former law clerks (all of those, the clerks wrote, who are “not prohibited by their current or pending employment from signing”) sent a letter to the Senate Judiciary Committee in which they praised his intellectual rigor but also described him as “unfailingly warm and gracious with his colleagues no matter how strongly they disagree about a case.” </blockquote>
<a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/brett-kavanaugh-supporters_us_5ba12864e4b04d32ebfd446d?ax6">There were more letters.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Eighty students who had Kavanaugh as a professor at Harvard Law School signed a letter saying he was an ”<a data-rapid-parsed="slk" data-rapid_p="4" data-v9y="1" data-ylk="subsec:paragraph;cpos:4;elm:context_link;itc:0" href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2018/07/19/former-harvard-law-students-praise-kavanaugh-letter/cWbMaw3XJ0Ot5kYHYDYKVI/story.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">inspiring professor</a>.”</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="content-list-component yr-content-list-text text" data-rapid-cpos="5" data-rapid-parsed="subsec" data-rapid-subsec="paragraph">
And Yale University, where he went to undergraduate and law school, issued a glowing press release with five distinguished professors and <a data-rapid-parsed="slk" data-rapid_p="6" data-v9y="1" data-ylk="subsec:paragraph;cpos:5;elm:context_link;itc:0" href="https://law.yale.edu/yls-today/news/brett-kavanaugh-90-nominated-us-supreme-court" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">faculty members congratulating him</a> and extolling his intellectual talent. </div>
</blockquote>
And do you know what happened after the <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/brett-kavanaugh-supporters_us_5ba12864e4b04d32ebfd446d?ax6">Dr. Ford allegations surfaced</a>?<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The day after those allegations came out, <a data-rapid-parsed="slk" data-rapid_p="8" data-v9y="1" data-ylk="subsec:paragraph;cpos:6;elm:context_link;itc:0" href="https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/2018-09-14%2065%20Women%20who%20know%20Kavanaugh%20from%20High%20School%20-%20Kavanaugh%20Nomination.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">65 women</a> who knew Kavanaugh in high school were still willing to issue a letter attesting to his character and his treatment of women. </blockquote>
The guy went to an all boys high school. H<a href="https://www.emptywheel.net/2018/09/29/on-squi-and-the-65-lady-letter/">ow do you get 65 women testify to your character</a> 24 hours after you were accused of a horrible crime?<br />
<br />
Do you even know 65 women from your own high school?<br />
<br />
Think about it.<br />
<br />
And think about how many "liberal" media outlets mentioned this fact?<br />
<br />
Well, <a href="https://www.emptywheel.net/2018/09/29/on-squi-and-the-65-lady-letter/">at least one of these women thought differently</a> after signing the letter. She was Renate Schroeder Dolphin who was mentioned by Kavanaugh and his football teammates in their yearbook as someone they had sex with (making them Renate alumnus).<br />
<br />
Nice, isn't it?<br />
<br />
He truly is a great guy.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Media Cover</span><br />
<br />
Speaking of corporate media, they did a wonderful job supporting Kavanaugh's nomination.<br />
<br />
Besides introducing him as the brilliant jurist without really touching upon his Florida recount efforts or the three long years that took for him to be confirmed to the District of Columbia Appeals Court or his extremely conservative record, they also helped the confirmation process by sucking the oxygen out of such points.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/us/politics/rod-rosenstein-wear-wire-25th-amendment.html">New York Times came up</a> with a third hand sourced story about <a href="https://www.emptywheel.net/2018/09/21/more-responsible-versions-of-the-nyt-scoop-strongly-suggests-rosenstein-and-mccabe-were-discussing-opening-an-investigation-into-trump/">Rod Rosenstein trying to overthrow Donald Trump</a> using the 25th Amendment. Michael Schmidt's piece drew <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/09/new-york-times-rod-rosenstein-scoop-michael-schmidt-discusses-reported-secret-recording-and-25th-amendment-conversations.html">categorical denials</a> but no one cared.<br />
<br />
Fox News and Sean Hannity were happy to just run with it.<br />
<br />
Let me make a prediction right here and right now: When Kavanaugh is confirmed, Trump will first fire Rosenstein or force him to resign. Then he will fire Mueller.<br />
<br />
You read it here first.<br />
<br />
And we'll have the "liberal" New York Times to thank for this.<br />
<br />
Another interesting thing is how the media outlets regurgitated GOP talking points without raising any questions. For instance, when they report the above-mentioned McConnell quote about delays and delaying tactics they never remind us that the same cynical senator delayed Merrick Garland's confirmation hearing for over a year.<br />
<br />
And his argument was based on the need to wait for the will of the people to be expressed in the upcoming elections which were more than a year away at the time. Now there are elections in a few weeks time and somehow the entire corporate media could not recall McConnell's previous claim.<br />
<br />
The same media folks also maintain that the new situation is very different from the Anita Hill hearings 27 years ago because of the #MeToo movement.<br />
<br />
It is not, because <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2018/02/metoo-movement-iokiyar-edition.html">IOKIYAR trumps #MeToo any time</a>.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45671920">Here is what a female Trumpkin</a> said about Blasey Ford:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"As a woman, a mother, and a former victim of assault myself, how any of you feminazis out there are buying this is completely beyond me."</blockquote>
At a Trump rally, the Guardian reporter <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/sep/30/donald-trump-rally-west-virginia-brett-kavanaugh-christine-blasey-ford-supreme-court">could not find a single person who believed</a> Christine Blasey Ford:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Tammy DeWitt, a 52-year-old state employee from Shinnston, <a class="u-underline" data-component="auto-linked-tag" data-link-name="auto-linked-tag" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/west-virginia">West Virginia</a>, also thought Ford was lying. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“It’s kind of obvious,” she said. “Thirty-some years later, right when he was getting the nomination, that she all the sudden remembers it.” She suggested “maybe she was paid by the Democrats”, and repeated: “They are crucifying that poor man.”</blockquote>
But that is mostly because of the corporate media coverage.<br />
<br />
Sure Trumpkins get their talking points from Fox News where they are told about a doppelganger who assaulted Dr Ford. But that is because there is no consistent counter narrative from the likes of New York Times.<br />
<br />
Case in point, when the mainstream media made a lot of noise about Roy Moore he lost to a Democrat in Alabama.<br />
<br />
But usually, the corporate media is more interested in highlighting Democratic sins.<br />
<br />
When Bill Clinton was accused by Gennifer Flowers or Paula Jones GOP operatives turned his private life a 24/7 circus throughout his presidency and the liberal media outlets covered every single one of them.<br />
<br />
The current president is accused of sexual assault by 19 women and his is on tape with his proud pussy grabbing anecdote. Yet, we never see them mentioned with the same regularity.<br />
<br />
One last thing.<br />
<br />
Corporate media mentions the evangelical fixation with Roe v. Wade all the time.<br />
<br />
As I documented <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2016/02/what-is-donald-trump-doing.html">previously, abortion was a Catholic issue prior to 1979</a> and the evangelical Christians couldn't care less about it. It was Pat Buchanan and GOP strategists <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Viguerie">Richard Viguerie</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Weyrich">Paul Weyrich</a> who made the issue an important part of Nixon's Southern Strategy.<br />
<br />
But everyone is now pretending that abortion has always been the most important factor in evangelical voting when it was just an execrable GOP manipulation with no basis in religion.Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-89858259031334854392018-09-05T10:13:00.001+02:002018-09-14T19:57:31.643+02:00Islamist Terrorists Were Given Another Safe Passage By the US<div class="tr_bq">
<div class="tr_bq">
My longtime readers will remember what I am referring to. </div>
<br />
In February 2018, <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2018/02/why-fleeing-isis-fighters-are-huge.html">I reported that coalition forces allowed</a> the evacuation of hundreds of ISIS fighters from Raqqa and they let them keep their weapons.<br />
<br />
In fact, they did more than that: they provided buses and large trucks to transport over 4,000 ISIS fighters and families. They made no effort to track them down and kept the whole thing secret.<br />
<br />
When the BBC found out about it, they first denied it, then downplayed the number and finally they blamed the locals.<br />
<br />
Here is a clip showing the orderly exodus of ISIS thugs.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/Y4A1jmYOfyQ/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Y4A1jmYOfyQ?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
It turns out that this happened again and again. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
This time, <a href="https://apnews.com/f38788a561d74ca78c77cb43612d50da">it took place in Yemen</a> where Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has been fighting against Saudi backed government for many years.</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
In February, Emirati troops and their Yemeni militia allies flashed victory signs to TV cameras as they declared the recapture of al-Said, a district of villages running through the mountainous province of Shabwa — an area al-Qaida had largely dominated for nearly three years.<br />
<br />
It was painted as a crowning victory in a months-long offensive, Operation Swift Sword, that the Emirati ambassador to Washington, Yousef al-Otaiba, had proclaimed would “disrupt the terrorist organization’s network and degrade its ability to conduct future attacks.”<br />
<br />
The Pentagon, which assisted with a small number of troops, echoed that promise, saying the mission would weaken the group’s ability to use Yemen as a base.</blockquote>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
In fact, what really happened was that, just like in Raqqa, the coalition made a secret deal to let them go with their weapons and <a href="https://apnews.com/f38788a561d74ca78c77cb43612d50da">paid them for their troubles</a>.</div>
<blockquote>
But weeks before those forces’ entry, a string of pickup trucks mounted with machine guns and loaded with masked al-Qaida militants drove out of al-Said unmolested, according to a tribal mediator involved in the deal for their withdrawal.</blockquote>
<blockquote>
Under the terms of the deal, the coalition promised al-Qaida members it would pay them to leave, according to Awad al-Dahboul, the province’s security chief. His account was confirmed by the mediator and two Yemeni government officials. </blockquote>
<blockquote>
Al-Dahboul said about 200 al-Qaida members received payments. He did not learn the exact amounts, but said he knew that 100,000 Saudi rials ($26,000) were paid to one al-Qaida commander — in the presence of Emiratis.</blockquote>
Where were <a href="https://apnews.com/f38788a561d74ca78c77cb43612d50da">the Americans and their drones</a> you might ask.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The U.S. has killed al-Qaida’s top leaders in a drone strike campaign that accelerated in recent years. But in this victory — as in the others touted by the coalition — the mediator said armed U.S. drones were absent, despite the large, obvious convoy.</blockquote>
<a href="https://apnews.com/f38788a561d74ca78c77cb43612d50da">According to the Associated Press</a>, the same blueprint was used in many other situations, the first being when al Qaeda fighters pulled out of Mukalla, a major port and Yemen's fifth largest city.<br />
<br />
In that case, they kept their weapons and the cash they looted.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The militants were guaranteed a safe route out and allowed to keep weapons and cash looted from the city — up to $100 million by some estimates — according to five sources, including military, security and government officials.</blockquote>
The Americans?<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“Coalition fighter jets and U.S. drones were idle,” said a senior tribal leader who saw the convoy leaving. “I was wondering why they didn’t strike them.”</blockquote>
Then came the deal for the province of Abyan.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Soon after, another accord was struck for AQAP to pull out of six towns in the province of Abyan, including its capital, Zinjibar, according to five tribal mediators involved in the negotiations.<br />
<br />
Again, the central provision was that the coalition and U.S. drones cease all bombings as AQAP pulled out with its weapons, the mediators said.</blockquote>
The mediators <a href="https://apnews.com/f38788a561d74ca78c77cb43612d50da">even threw a dinner party for the departing AQAP fighters.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
For nearly a week in May 2016, the militants departed in trucks. One of the mediators told the AP that he threw the last of the departing fighters a farewell dinner among his olive and lemon orchards when they stopped at his farm to pay their respects.</blockquote>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><img height="372" src="https://storage.googleapis.com/afs-prod/media/media:5855e4097666470cb7f5c3e27117c643/800.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="640" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.8px; text-align: left;"><a href="https://apnews.com/f38788a561d74ca78c77cb43612d50da">The black al-Qaida flag and the slogan in Arabic “al-Qaida passed here,” on the right wall, are sprayed on a damaged school that was turned into a religious court in the southern city of Taiz.</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
I know what you are thinking.<br />
<br />
You say that my title suggests a direct American knowledge of a safe passage deal but all they did was to refrain from sending their planes and drones on specific dates.<br />
<br />
What makes me think that they knew about it? Maybe they did it because they were asked to do it.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://apnews.com/f38788a561d74ca78c77cb43612d50da">Well</a>,<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Another mediator, Tarek al-Fadhli, a former jihadi once trained by al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden, said he was in touch with officials at the U.S. Embassy and in the Saudi-led coalition, keeping them updated on the withdrawal. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“When the last one left, we called the coalition to say they are gone,” he said.</blockquote>
Next time you hear of a terrorist incident in Turkey or in Europe, you will know who to thank for.</div>
Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-63154830211716344462018-08-23T16:19:00.003+02:002018-08-23T16:19:43.653+02:00Campaign Finance Laws, John Edwards, Donald Trump, IOKIYAR<br />
Every time I mention IOKIYAR (It's OK if you are Republican) someone tells me that there is no such thing.<br />
<br />
Well, I have another case for you to consider.<br />
<br />
Donald Trump's <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/aug/22/worst-hour-for-trump-after-convictions-for-manafort-and-cohen">former fixer Michael Cohen just admitted in court</a> that he was asked to pay hush money to Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal.<br />
<br />
The purpose was to prevent any electoral damage stemming from these stories.<br />
<br />
Do you remember John Edwards?<br />
<br />
The senator from North Carolina? John Kerry's running mate in 2004, presidential candidate in 2007 primaries?<br />
<br />
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LufjHkkMqEQ/W3605ap1kmI/AAAAAAAACQg/vMjwrhNePyUxwwpkeDjcVgKFP_L6A06dACLcBGAs/s1600/John%2BEdwards.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="282" data-original-width="220" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LufjHkkMqEQ/W3605ap1kmI/AAAAAAAACQg/vMjwrhNePyUxwwpkeDjcVgKFP_L6A06dACLcBGAs/s1600/John%2BEdwards.jpg" /></a>He was the Democratic rising star, a great trial lawyer, with good looks and charismatic presence.<br />
<br />
Do you remember what happened to him?<br />
<br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Edwards_extramarital_affair">He had an affair</a> with a campaign staffer called Rielle Hunter and paid her some hush money to cover up the affair.<br />
<br />
He was indicted by the Justice Department for having violated the same campaign finance laws Donald Trump is accused of breaking.<br />
<br />
At the time you could not believe the shitstorm this caused. Everybody was up in arms, Democrats and Republicans stepped on each other to vilify Edwards.<br />
<br />
He was an immoral person, the cause of decline in national moral standards, the worst human being imaginable. People were outraged and enraged. You would think that he was the first politician to have an affair.<br />
<br />
As a result, his political career was ruined and he could not show his face in public. No one would vote for him for the lowliest position.<br />
<br />
Fast forward to today. Trump has done exactly the same thing. He had affairs and paid to cover them up. Just like Edwards, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43988586">he lied about them</a>, he changed positions many times as did the people around him.<br />
<br />
The reaction? Nothing.<br />
<br />
No <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/aug/22/senior-republicans-hesitate-to-criticise-trump-after-manafort-and-cohen-verdicts">senior Republican leader would comment on</a> it.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
A spokesperson for the House of Representatives speaker, Paul Ryan, issued an abrupt statement, saying: “We are aware of Mr Cohen’s guilty plea to these serious charges. We will need more information than is currently available at this point.”</blockquote>
Leslie Graham said there was no collusion with Russia and Mitch McConnell didn't even bother issuing a statement of tweeting.<br />
<br />
The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/23/trump-michael-cohen-broad-daylight">Guardian ran a hilarious piece</a> highlighting the various hypothetical reactions if Trump had actually shot Michael Cohen in the middle of Fifth Avenue.<br />
<br />
Then they asked Tumpkins as they always do after such revelations. Unsurprisingly, they were unanimous and categorical. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45274175">They couldn't care less</a> if he paid off a porn star and broke the law.<br />
<br />
When Edwards or Gary Hart has an affair pearl clutching ensues, evangelicals faint. When they lie that is the worst crime.<br />
<br />
When Trump has affairs, no big deal. If he lies, who cares?<br />
<br />
That's IOKIYAR.<br />
<br />
On a related note I wish people stopped speculating about impeachment. It is simply impossible even if Democrats win the House back in November. The Senate trial requires two thirds majority. It is a pipedream that makes look like a martyr to the Trumpkins.<br />
<br />
As I said many times, <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/03/intelligence-agencies-are-gunning-for.html">Trump made a mistake by attacking National Security Apparatus</a>. Those folks don't take that sort of thing lying down. They will come up with <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/05/how-will-trump-presidency-end.html">irrefutable evidence of financial crimes</a>, like money laundering for Russian mafia types.<br />
<br />
The crimes will be so obvious and staggering that even Hannity will be unable to defend them. <br />
<br />
Until then, Democrats should work on getting people to vote in large numbers.Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-90163902301439873672018-08-07T23:29:00.001+02:002018-08-09T23:24:25.065+02:00Did Tillerson Stop the Invasion of Qatar?I don't know if you've heard the news.<br />
<br />
According to a <a href="https://theintercept.com/2018/08/01/rex-tillerson-qatar-saudi-uae/">new expose by The Intercept</a>, Rex Tillerson lost his job because he prevented the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ?) from invading Qatar.<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MInLg1bglSI/W2oKdp0kCsI/AAAAAAAACPg/lswEBfqRrQgpMy8aYQlgNRXF0zYCn_ODQCLcBGAs/s1600/Mohammed%2Bbin%2BSalman.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="372" data-original-width="620" height="192" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MInLg1bglSI/W2oKdp0kCsI/AAAAAAAACPg/lswEBfqRrQgpMy8aYQlgNRXF0zYCn_ODQCLcBGAs/s320/Mohammed%2Bbin%2BSalman.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/saudis-are-hoping-mohammed-bin-salman-will-drain-swamp">Mohammed bin Salman</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Qatari intelligence agents working inside Saudi Arabia discovered the plan in the early summer of 2017, according to the U.S. intelligence official. Tillerson acted after the Qatari government notified him and the U.S. embassy in Doha. Several months later, intelligence reporting by the U.S. and U.K. confirmed the existence of the plan. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The plan, which was largely devised by the Saudi and UAE crown princes and was likely some weeks away from being implemented, involved Saudi ground troops crossing the land border into Qatar, and, with military support from the UAE, advancing roughly 70 miles toward Doha. Circumventing the U.S. air base, Saudi forces would then seize the capital.</blockquote>
As the former CEO of Exxon Mobil who had very close ties to the Qatari royal family, it is no surprise that Tillerson placed dozens of calls to both United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia governments right away to defuse the situation.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/7553/production/_95153003_b1ec09ef-6924-41c7-a4ad-38d75e42b704.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson speaks to the press in Washington on 6 March" border="0" height="179" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/7553/production/_95153003_b1ec09ef-6924-41c7-a4ad-38d75e42b704.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-39274174">Rex Tillerson</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
He understood the stakes and the risks. There is a large American military base in the country and Qatar is the largest producer of natural gas in the world.<br />
<br />
The piece suggests that Tillerson was successful because he enlisted the help of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and together they stopped the plot.<br />
<br />
I don't think so.<br />
<br />
Jim "Mad Dog" Mattis was fun for Trump initially until he sided with "the grown ups." And Rex "<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/oct/10/donald-trump-forbes-rex-tillerson-moron">he is a fucking moron</a>" Tillerson was doomed when he never denied the actual quote.<br />
<br />
Trump did not pay any attention to them once they looked like they thought they were more intelligent than him.<br />
<br />
Sure, I concur that there was a plan to invade Qatar. <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/12/mohammed-bin-salman-and-bleak-future-of.html">As I've written many times</a>, Saudi Arabia was and is essentially bankrupt.<br />
<br />
But I don't think it was Tillerson's efforts that stopped the invasion.<br />
<br />
Allow me refresh your memory.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://when%20the%20saudis%20and%20emiratis%20were%20about%20to%20launch%20the%20blockade%20of%20qatar%20in%20june%2C%20then-us%20assistant%20secretary%20of%20state%20for%20near%20eastern%20affairs%20stuart%20jones%20got%20a%20call%20in%20the%20middle%20of%20the%20night%20from%20uae%20ambassador%20otaiba%20to%20inform%20him%20of%20the%20impending%20action.%20jones%E2%80%99%20reaction%20was%20%E2%80%9Cextremely%20harsh.%20%E2%80%98what%20are%20you%20guys%20doing/?%20This%20is%20crazy,%E2%80%99%E2%80%9D%20a%20former%20US%20ambassador%20to%20the%20region%20told%20Al-Monitor.%20%E2%80%9CAnd%20%E2%80%A6%20Yusuf%20[Otaiba]%27s%20response%20was,%20%E2%80%98Have%20you%20spoken%20to%20the%20White%20House?%E2%80%99%E2%80%9D">White House and Trump were in on it from the get go</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
When the Saudis and Emiratis were about to launch the blockade
of Qatar in June, then-US Assistant Secretary of State for Near
Eastern Affairs Stuart Jones got a call in the middle of the
night from UAE Ambassador Otaiba to inform him of the impending
action. Jones’ reaction was “extremely harsh. ‘What are you guys
doing? This is crazy,’” a former US ambassador to the region
told Al-Monitor. “And … Yusuf [sic][Otaiba]'s response was, ‘Have you
spoken to the White House?’”</blockquote>
You see how cool and confident that riposte is?<br />
<br />
"Have you spoken to the White House?"<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0f/Yousef_Al_Otaiba_2013.jpg/220px-Yousef_Al_Otaiba_2013.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Yousef Al Otaiba 2013.jpg" border="0" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0f/Yousef_Al_Otaiba_2013.jpg/220px-Yousef_Al_Otaiba_2013.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yousef_Al_Otaiba">Al-Otaibi</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The next day Trump was in the Rose Garden <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-qatar-terrorism-funding-saudi-arabia-gulf-accusation-very-high-level-a7782896.html">accusing Qatar of "funding terrorism at a very high level"</a>.<br />
<br />
He did so just as Tillerson was intensely urging the Gulf countries to stop the embargo and ease the tensions.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/07/kushners-qatar-involvement-and.html">As I reported at the time</a>, that line about Qatar was scripted by the UAE Washington ambassador Yousef al-Otaibi who is a very close friend of Jared Kushner and was inserted by Kushner in Trump's speech.<br />
<br />
It should also be said that Kushner <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/03/saudi-arabia-united-arab-emirates-jared-kushner-robert-mueller">was and is very close to MBS and MBZ</a>, you know, the Crown Princes.<br />
<br />
And for Kushner, this was a payback for Qatari investment company <a href="http://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/07/kushners-qatar-involvement-and.html">Al-Mirqab pulling out of a deal involving 666 Fifth Avenue</a> (which itself might have been a payback by <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/06/qatar-saudi-arabia-rift-will-mbs-and.html">HBJ for losing his position after the previous Emir's forced abdication</a>).<br />
<br />
With both Trump and Kushner on the side of Saudi Arabia, nothing would have stopped MBS from invading his tiny neighbor.<br />
<br />
Besides, <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/12/mohammed-bin-salman-and-bleak-future-of.html">given his financial woes</a>, he had no other choice. The war in Yemen has been depleting the Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund at an alarming rate. Qatar's SWF has $320 billion in it, not to mention the country's continuous natural gas revenues.<br />
<br />
In fact, getting his hands on a substantial amount of money was so critical that, when he couldn't do the invasion, he had to round up his relatives in a posh hotel and <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/12/mohammed-bin-salman-and-bleak-future-of.html">extort $100 billion from them</a>.<br />
<br />
In short, it was too important for MBS to back down on the strength of Tillerson's opposition. Especially if Trump and Kushner were on board. And they were.<br />
<br />
But Qataris are not stupid. <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/07/qatars-insurance-policies-against-saudi.html">As I explained</a> before, they bought themselves three great insurance policies right away.<br />
<br />
In fact, they later bought a fourth one that made them pretty invincible, much to the chagrin of MBS.<br />
<br />
First, they enlisted Iran's help right off the bat and the Islamic Republic made it clear that they would not allow such an invasion.<br />
<br />
By itself, it would not have been enough to stop MBS, especially if he assumed that Trump would come to his help against Iran. In fact, he might have seen as a bonus. But it still gave him pause.<br />
<br />
The second policy was to enlarge Turkish military base in Qatar and sign a mutual defense agreement with Turkey. Again, this might have given MBS pause but if Trump was firmly on his side, his thinking would have been, well, how far would or could Turkey go to defend Qatar's sovereignty.<br />
<br />
The best policy was the third one and it is also the one that stopped Trump from siding with the Saudis at the time.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/07/qatars-insurance-policies-against-saudi.html">As you can see in that post</a>, Qatar's SWF purchased a 19.5 percent stake in Russian oil and gas giant Rosneft just after the US presidential elections. The deal was put together, during the campaign, by Carter Page, a Trump advisor, in August and was announced immediately after Trump was elected.<br />
<br />
Critically, the deal had a secret clause which stipulated that Russia could buy that stake back any time. Essentially Qatar's Emir was lending $11.5 billion to Russia making it look like a commercial transaction.<br />
<br />
A Saudi invasion would have made that stake permanent as MBS had no reason to honor it.<br />
<br />
That's when Putin reached out to his poodle and whispered the magic words.<br />
<br />
I know you don't believe me. But do you know what happened next?<br />
<br />
Trump <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-hosts-qatari-emir-although-he-has-said-it-funds-terror/">stopped saying that Qatar funded terrorists</a>.<br />
<br />
Just like that.<br />
<br />
Then he hosted the Emir at the White House like nothing happened and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43724576">praised him for combating terrorism financing</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
[O]n Tuesday he praised Sheikh Tamim Al Thani for becoming a "big advocate" of combating terrorist financing. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
He also said the emir was a "great gentleman" and a "friend of mine".</blockquote>
There is one more wrinkle to the story and that is the <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/05/kushner-cos-brookfield-qatar">fourth insurance policy</a> bought after the fact by Qatar.<br />
<br />
As I said, they are not stupid.<br />
<br />
As soon as they realized that Kushner was siding with the MB playboys because their former Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs HBJ (Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani) refused <a href="http://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/07/kushners-qatar-involvement-and.html">to pay for the albatross on Kushner's neck</a>, they moved to correct that mistake.<br />
<br />
666 Fifth Avenue loan payment is due in six months (February 2019) and Javanka do not have the money.<br />
<br />
So it needs to go away and if it does, they know that Trump White House will make MBS and MBZ go away.<br />
<br />
Good thinking, you say. Like foreign dignitaries making a point of staying at Trump's Washington Post Office Hotel.<br />
<br />
Obviously by then, Qataris were fully cognizant that they could not openly invest in that doomed property. Too on the nose. <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/06/jaredgate-is-not-about-russia-it-is.html">Anbang did that and got burned</a>. Their CEO is still in jail.<br />
<br />
What <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/05/kushner-cos-brookfield-qatar">Qataris did was to find a clean and nice third party</a> in which they had a massive stake and move through them.<br />
<br />
Enter the nice and clean Canadian real estate company Brookfield. Even the name sounds nice and innocuous.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-brookfield-asset-management-eases-woes-for-kushner-family-empire/">Well, they have just leased the property for 99 years</a> and agreed to invest $700 billion US dollars for upgrades.<br />
<br />
They also bought the shares of Vornado Realty. And interestingly, they succeeded even though nobody thought Vornado would sell.<br />
<br />
One more thing.<br />
<br />
And, this is unheard of in the real estate annals, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-brookfield-asset-management-eases-woes-for-kushner-family-empire/">Brookfield agreed to pay the totality of 99 years lease upfront.</a><br />
<br />
Not annually as it is required. Everything.<br />
<br />
Which will allow Kushner to pay back its lenders in full in February 2019. And the Kushner family will get the building back in 99 years.<br />
<br />
By now you might have guessed <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/17/nyregion/kushner-deal-qatar-666-5th.html">who is behind such a sweetheart deal.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The Qatar Investment Authority is the second-largest shareholder in Brookfield Properties, ranking only behind Brookfield’s former parent company. And the Qatar fund and Brookfield have teamed up on several real-estate deals in the United States and elsewhere in recent years, including Brookfield’s retail and apartment complex, Manhattan West, now under construction on the West Side. Brookfield and Qatar also control the Canary Wharf office complex in London.</blockquote>
This took place three days ago and other than the Canadian Globe and Mail not many mainstream news outlets covered it.<br />
<br />
As I say it often, we live in interesting times.<br />
_____________<br />
<br />
UPDATE:<br />
<br />
A friend told me that other mainstream news outlets covered the transaction.<br />
<br />
Well, if you Google "Brookfield Kushner" this is what you get. None mentions Qatar's involvement.<br />
<br />
Don't you think that's amazing?<br />
<br />
Fake news and liberal media<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-x0Z5XQIZ0Wk/W2yvs5lNFOI/AAAAAAAACPw/FTuFdfyIWGQjQOviou85-hXrrVpFcR_wgCLcBGAs/s1600/kushner%2Bscreen.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1430" data-original-width="1059" height="640" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-x0Z5XQIZ0Wk/W2yvs5lNFOI/AAAAAAAACPw/FTuFdfyIWGQjQOviou85-hXrrVpFcR_wgCLcBGAs/s640/kushner%2Bscreen.jpg" width="473" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
The Globe and Mail piece is the only one you get if you add Qatar to the search.</div>
<br />Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-88443114342022560822018-08-04T18:36:00.001+02:002018-08-04T18:41:07.834+02:00A #MeToo Moment for the United Nations?As we all know, the #MeToom movement swept all male bastions and went through power structures like a Category 5 hurricane.<br />
<br />
Hollywood studios, high tech companies, Wall Street banks, large corporations all had to face the music.<br />
<br />
There were two exceptions.<br />
<br />
One was the conservative politicians, as exemplified by the indifference accorded to Donald Trump by his own party, his supporters and the corporate media.<br />
<br />
If a Democratic president (and God forbid if it was Obama) had asked his personal lawyer to cover up his affair with a porn star with a $130,000 hush money or did <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/donald-trump-a-playboy-model-and-a-system-for-concealing-infidelity-national-enquirer-karen-mcdougal">this to hide another affair</a> with a Playboy model all hell would have broken loose.<br />
<br />
Tellingly, the linked expose was signed Ronan Farrow, the man who single handedly brought down industry titans like Harvey Weinstein or Les Moonves.<br />
<br />
With Trump, nothing.<br />
<br />
After his denials, his former lawyer's secret recordings showed he was in on it. Still nothing.<br />
<br />
IOKIYAR.<br />
<br />
The second exception was the United Nations.<br />
<br />
There, we already knew that peacekeeping operations had turned into double victimization of women and girls. But recently, we found out that sexual abuse and harassment was also the norm at UN civilian agencies as well.<br />
<br />
And the modus operandi was not very different in either cases.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Peacekeepers or Sex Ring Operators?</span><br />
<br />
Since 2001, <a href="https://www.africaportal.org/features/peacekeeping-and-sexual-assault-persistent-stain-united-nations-image/">thousands of sexual misconduct allegations</a> surfaced against UN peacekeepers in Bosnia, Sierra Leone, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Central African Republic (CAR).<br />
<br />
Yet <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/07/peacekeepers-hit-allegations-sex-abuse-170701133655238.html">not much has been done about it.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
In early June, the New York-based <a href="http://www.codebluecampaign.com/">Code Blue Campaign</a>, dedicated to ending impunity for crimes of sexual exploitation and abuse by peacekeepers, released an internal UN memo that showed no action had been taken against the Congolese troops in CAR, despite multiple complaints about their behaviour. </blockquote>
In fact, the problem has gotten worse and <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/07/peacekeepers-hit-allegations-sex-abuse-170701133655238.html">sexual exploitation increased</a> over the years. UN's own chart summarizes the incidents between 2010 and 2016.<br />
<img alt="Peacekeeping Sexual Assault Figure 1" src="https://www.africaportal.org/media/images/Peacekeeping_Sexual_assult_-_figure_1.1jpg.original.jpg" /><br />
<br />
Through it all, the UN managed to maintain the stories in check and <a href="https://www.africaportal.org/features/peacekeeping-and-sexual-assault-persistent-stain-united-nations-image/">to hide the true scope</a> of the problem.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Of the 2000 cases of sexual misconduct reported to the UN over the past 12 years, 700 emanate from the DRC. <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2017-06-09/un-peacekeepers-sexual-assault-problem">Another report shows that 300 of these 2000 cases involve children</a>. This geographic and demographic spread is however impugned by the fact that UN statistics on this issue (while steadily improving) are notoriously inaccurate. Record collection is impeded by under-reporting and chronically bad record-keeping by the UN. </blockquote>
I know what some people might be thinking. They might be attributing these incidents to developing country soldiers. Without touching on the implicit racism of this assumption, let me tell you that while in African situations this might be largely true (due to the composition of the troops), the misconduct known as SEA (Sexual Exploitation and Abuse) was quite prevalent in the Bosnia and Kosovo cases and there, the bulk of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Protection_Force">UNPROFOR soldiers and commanders </a>were from European countries.<br />
<br />
With one Swedish, three French and one Indian Commanding Officer, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child_sexual_abuse_by_UN_peacekeepers">this is what happened</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
A Kosovo victims support group reported that of the local prostitutes, a third were under 14, and 80% were under 18. Amnesty said the victims were routinely raped "as a means of control and coercion" and kept in terrible conditions as slaves by their "owners"; sometimes kept in darkened rooms unable to go out</blockquote>
In any event, dwelling on the identity of the perpetrators is a futile exercise in racism. Sri Lankan soldiers <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child_sexual_abuse_by_UN_peacekeepers">might have ran a child sex in Haiti</a> but they did it under UN command and they couldn't have done it if the top echelons had not turned a blind eye.<br />
<br />
If anything, the UN largely <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/07/peacekeepers-hit-allegations-sex-abuse-170701133655238.html">ignored the problem and actively tried to cover it up</a>.<br />
<br />
In fact, when you look at the behavior of senior managers in other UN agencies you realize this is not a peacekeeping issue and the same nonchalance about sexual abuse exists in the organization's civilian institutions.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Sexual Abuse and Harassment in UN Agencies</span><br />
<br />
In January 2018, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/jan/18/sexual-assault-and-harassment-rife-at-united-nations-staff-claim">the Guardian published an article</a> about rampant sexual harassment, abuse and rape in UN agencies. It was an eye opener.<br />
<br />
It showed that women who reported sexual misconduct usually lost their jobs while the perpetrators <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/feb/24/un-former-employee-call-for-inquiry-sexism-bullying-harassment">were promoted to higher positions.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Three women who reported sexual harassment or sexual assault, all from different offices, said they had since been forced out of their jobs or threatened with the termination of their contract in the past year. The alleged perpetrators, who include a senior UN official, remain in their posts.</blockquote>
A woman who was raped by a senior staff member had this experience:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
She said that despite medical evidence and witness testimonies, an internal investigation by the UN found insufficient evidence to support her allegation. Along with her job, she says she has lost her visa and has spent months in hospital due to stress and trauma. She fears she will face persecution if she returns to her home country.</blockquote>
The system was stacked against the victim who were constantly told not to report such incidents.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
One woman allegedly assaulted while working for the UN says she was told by her agency’s ombudsman that there was nothing more he could do to help her pursue a complaint, because he was being threatened by senior UN staff. Seven other alleged victims who spoke to the Guardian were told by an ombudsman or colleague that they should not try to pursue a complaint.</blockquote>
Another victim who was raped was not offered any medical assistance or counseling and the rapist suffered no consequences. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/jan/18/sexual-assault-and-harassment-rife-at-united-nations-staff-claim">In one case</a>, "a man accused of sexual harassment was allowed to interview the woman who brought the complaint against him."<br />
<br />
In fact, it is a systemic problem and the people who were supposed to investigate these crimes were <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/jan/18/sexual-assault-and-harassment-rife-at-united-nations-staff-claim">explicitly instructed not to do their jobs.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Peter Gallo, a former OIOS investigator who left the UN in 2015, said he witnessed evidence being routinely ignored and facts skewed. “As an investigator I was told I should ‘never ask questions just to satisfy my curiosity,’” he said. “The only rule is not to publicly embarrass the organisation.”</blockquote>
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/jan/18/sexual-assault-and-harassment-rife-at-united-nations-staff-claim">So it is not surprising that,</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
An internal UNAids staff survey found that almost 10% of 427 respondents had experienced sexual harassment. Only two had reported it.</blockquote>
Malaya Harper, the general secretary of the World YWCA, s<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/feb/24/un-former-employee-call-for-inquiry-sexism-bullying-harassment">ays that while she was working at UNAids she was sexually harassed and assaulted</a> by the deputy executive director of the agency Luiz Loures. She didn't reported because she knew nothing was going to be done about it.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Two women told the Observer they had warned the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/feb/07/un-inquiry-alleged-sexual-assault-campaigners">agency’s executive director, Michel Sidibé</a>, about Loures’s alleged behaviour. One former employee, who left in 2015, said: “I had an exit interview with Michel when I left and the first words out of my mouth were, ‘your deputy director is a sexual predator and everybody knows it. I’m telling you because you really have to do something about it.’”</blockquote>
After multiple sexual misconduct allegations Loures announced that he was not going to seek the renewal of his contract at the end of last March and he was allowed to retire without any negative consequences.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/feb/24/un-former-employee-call-for-inquiry-sexism-bullying-harassment">And he was not alone:</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The announcement of Loures’s departure follows news that Justin Forsyth <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/feb/22/unicef-deputy-justin-forsyth-quits-inappropriate-behaviour-claims">has stepped down as deputy executive director of Unicef</a>, the UN’s children’s agency, after accusations of inappropriate behaviour toward female staff while working for Save the Children.</blockquote>
There is also the case of Ruud Lubbers, the former UN High Commissioner for Refugees, who "<a href="http://www.codebluecampaign.com/press-releases/2018/2/23">was eased from his post 12 years ago, following multiple allegations of sexual offenses against female staff."</a><br />
<br />
And Frank La Rue of UNESCO who also retired with full benefits while being investigated for sexual misconduct.<br />
<br />
Feel free to Google <a href="http://www.innercitypress.com/unesco8decayicp052818.html">Tero Varjoranta</a> of IAEA (he was in charge of the Iran nuclear deal, known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) and <a href="http://www.innercitypress.com/metooun5iaeaicp052418.html">his protector Yukio Amano</a>.<br />
<br />
I can go on as these are only the most senior and most visible cases.<br />
<br />
You may rightly ask the question whether the UN is doing something about this endemic problem.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Is Anything Being Done?</span><br />
<br />
The short answer is "not really."<br />
<br />
UN's position had always been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/feb/24/un-former-employee-call-for-inquiry-sexism-bullying-harassment">to sweep the dirt under the rug</a>, as illustrated by the egregious case of Luiz Loures:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
An internal investigation report said Sidibé had attempted to settle the assault allegation informally, despite the matter being under official investigation by the World Health Organisation’s investigations team, <a href="https://oios.un.org/">Internal Oversight Services</a>.</blockquote>
What was Antonio Guterres' reaction, the Secretary General who was elected over a group of highly qualified and deserving women candidates by claiming his feminist credentials?<br />
<br />
Officially, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/jan/18/sexual-assault-and-harassment-rife-at-united-nations-staff-claim">this is what the UN said:</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
In a statement, the UN pledged to “look at strengthening our capacities to investigate reports and to support victims”. The organisation said Guterres has appointed a victims’ rights advocate and established a high-level taskforce on sexual harassment, to review policies and strengthen investigations. The UN will also carry out a survey to measure the extent of the issue, and introduce a helpline for people seeking advice.</blockquote>
Another task force, you may say <a href="http://www.codebluecampaign.com/press-releases/2018/2/23">but this is not any old task force</a>, this one is special:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Its members will be drawn the Chief Executives Board, which includes 31 top UN officials, just 26% of whom are female. That task force will be chaired by Jan Beagle, who also held the title of Deputy Executive Director at UNAIDS throughout much of the Luiz Loures scandal and did nothing and said nothing. Ms. Beagle was promoted last year by Secretary-General Guterres to the most senior and visible management position in the UN system. The identities of the other members of the sexual harassment task force of "senior leaders" are the Secretary-General's carefully guarded secret.</blockquote>
A internal task force which largely consisted of men whose identity would be unknown and chaired by a colleague of Luiz Loures who did nothing to stop a sexual predator while she was a senior executive at UNAids.<br />
<br />
That's the best the Secretary General of the United Nations could do to change the oppressive culture of sexual abuse and harassment.<br />
<br />
Unless member states give UN agencies a wake up call about this problem, I doubt that the institution would move to clean house.<br />
<br />
And given the largely conservative profile of member state politicians who love their male privileges don't expect any concerted effort in the regard.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/08/james-damores-memo-and-litmus-test-for.html">As I said before</a>, "women are the last group in the world about whom discriminatory practices and sexist speech are widely tolerated."<br />
<br />
And unfortunately, it will continue to be the case with UN being a special case.Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-78225031093300427002018-07-27T17:18:00.002+02:002018-08-09T11:56:14.506+02:00Why Is Donald Trump Afraid of Putin After the Helsinki spectacle where Donald Trump almost gave Vladimir Putin a public foot massage, the usual suspects rose again with their "this is it, the straw that will break the Orange Camel" cries.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oxpQCTIWhxo/W1swyJ1OP6I/AAAAAAAACO8/hBCK-5NsL0ICRIAWR26WkfLR0QtozyUkQCLcBGAs/s1600/putin-trump.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="219" data-original-width="230" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oxpQCTIWhxo/W1swyJ1OP6I/AAAAAAAACO8/hBCK-5NsL0ICRIAWR26WkfLR0QtozyUkQCLcBGAs/s1600/putin-trump.jpg" /></a>They hollered Trump's subdued performance was treasonous and it was proof that Putin had some compromising tape on him and he was Putin's poodle.<br />
<br />
There were also, to my eye, homophobic depictions of their relationship.<br />
<br />
What I don't understand is how long will this "I can't believe his base is not deserting him" discourse go on. After ever scandalous tweet they rush to quiz the Trumpkins and they all gleefully say that they love the Man.<br />
<br />
Neither do I understand the liberal conviction that Putin has something on Trump, which is why the Orange Man is behaving in a strangely decile manner.<br />
<br />
This time, I didn't bother with another "<a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2018/06/is-separating-children-from-their.html">nothing will derail Donald Trump</a>" post.<br />
<br />
There is no point in repeating the axiomatic truth that there is virtually nothing Trump can do that will turn his evangelical, white privileged, racist and affluent base off.<br />
<br />
You can show that he colluded with Russia to win the elections and his folks will say, good for him.<br />
<br />
However, there is one thing Trump is afraid of and it is why he is extremely cautious in dealing with Putin. It has to do with my <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/05/how-will-trump-presidency-end.html">prediction about how his presidency will likely to end</a>. And as one of my most popular posts, it is still on the right hand margin.<br />
<br />
My view is that, nothing other than financial fraud, money laundering and associated crimes can bring Trump down. But those crimes, when revealed, will almost certainly force him to resign.<br />
<br />
As I explained in that post in some detail, in mid-2000s, after six bankruptcies, Trump was toxic and no financial institution would lend him money. So, to develop residences, hotels and golf courses, he began working with <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2017/05/how-will-trump-presidency-end.html">Russian, Kazakh, Georgian and Azeri businessmen</a>, like Felix Sater, Tevfik Arif, Alexander Shnaider, Tamir Sapir and the <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/03/13/donald-trumps-worst-deal">Mammadov family</a>.<br />
<br />
There is a long list of <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/05/donald-trump-conflicts-of-interests/508382/">dubious development projects here</a> and you can click on them to see the problem in each instance.<br />
<br />
The people whose name I mentioned are all shady characters with extensive links to criminal groups and in my opinion it is very likely that they used the Trump Organization to launder hundreds of millions of dollars. They financed properties, Trump slapped his name on them, the units got sold, hotels and golf courses managed and <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news-desk/swamp-chronicles/where-did-donald-trump-get-200-million-dollars-to-buy-his-money-losing-scottish-golf-club">fresh smelling money came out from the other end</a>.<br />
<br />
Financial fraud would be problematic for Trump for two reasons: One, unlike sex allegations, which are of "he-said-she-said" narratives, money laundering is easily proven and him helping some foreign criminals clean up their ill-gotten gains would give pause even the staunchest Trumpkin.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news-desk/swamp-chronicles/where-did-donald-trump-get-200-million-dollars-to-buy-his-money-losing-scottish-golf-club">There are some hard-to-believe projects</a>.<br />
<br />
As the New Yorker's <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news-desk/swamp-chronicles/where-did-donald-trump-get-200-million-dollars-to-buy-his-money-losing-scottish-golf-club">Adam Davidson put it</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Although we cannot say that Trump himself knowingly engaged in money laundering, we do know with certainty that much of his business in the past decade was in the industries most known for money laundering, in the locations most conducive to money laundering, and with people who bear the key hallmarks of money launderers.</blockquote>
Moreover, associated crimes like tax evasion could become a serious headache for him. And it would be difficult for Fox News to claim bothsideism as there is nothing like this on the Democratic side.<br />
<br />
But perhaps more importantly, such a scandal would destroy the Trump brand and make it impossible for him to profit from the presidency and his business model (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-the-king-of-debt-trump-borrowed-to-build-his-empire-then-he-began-spending-hundreds-of-millions-in-cash/2018/05/05/28fe54b4-44c4-11e8-8569-26fda6b404c7_story.html?utm_term=.7dc655a6f40b">putting his name on other people's properties</a> and getting a license fee) would vanish overnight.<br />
<br />
Faced with such a situation, Trump would make a deal and simply resign.<br />
<br />
As you might remember, I maintained throughout that this outcome was more or less inevitable because of Trump's stupid feud with intelligence agencies. They know where the bodies are buried and they will unearth them when it is appropriate.<br />
<br />
It turns out your humble soapbox operator was on to something.<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zQQ_C38ngnA/W1s0y-4hd5I/AAAAAAAACPI/LwjCTiCDR0Y6h7wHCFXI2-IFGrPwYclmwCLcBGAs/s1600/Trump-shower.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1200" height="180" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zQQ_C38ngnA/W1s0y-4hd5I/AAAAAAAACPI/LwjCTiCDR0Y6h7wHCFXI2-IFGrPwYclmwCLcBGAs/s320/Trump-shower.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://trueliberalnews.com/trump-russian-pee-tape-threat-level-raised-to-code-yellow/">Credit</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Recently, <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news-desk/swamp-chronicles/a-theory-of-trump-kompromat">an editor at the New Yorker concurred</a> with the general outline of this analysis.<br />
<br />
According to several Russia experts "<i>kompromat</i>" does not necessarily refer to a compromising video clip that can be used for blackmailing.<br />
<br />
You know the apocryphal pee-tape.<br />
<br />
Instead, it should be thought of pieces of information being held by different players within the "<i>sistema</i>" or system, which is an informal structure of hierarchy where the players constantly shift position relative to others.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news-desk/swamp-chronicles/a-theory-of-trump-kompromat">In this case "kompromat" is about Trump's past business dealings with these guys</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
If there truly is damaging <em>kompromat</em> on Trump, it could well be
in the hands of Trump’s business partners, or even in those of their
rivals. Trump’s Georgian partners, for example, have been in direct
conflict with other local business networks over a host of crucial deals
involving major telecommunications projects in the country. His
Azerbaijani partners were tightly linked to Iranians who were also
senior officers in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. </blockquote>
And the reason <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news-desk/swamp-chronicles/a-theory-of-trump-kompromat">why Trump is being nice to Putin is this</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The scenario that, to my mind, makes the most sense of the given facts and requires the fewest fantastical leaps is that, a decade or so ago, Trump, naïve, covetous, and struggling for cash, may have laundered money for a business partner from the former Soviet Union or engaged in some other financial crime. This placed him, unawares, squarely within sistema, where he remained, conducting business with other members of a handful of overlapping Central Asian networks. Had he never sought the Presidency, he may never have had to come to terms with these decisions. But now he is much like everyone else in sistema. He fears there is kompromat out there—maybe a lot of it—but he doesn’t know precisely what it is, who has it, or what might set them off.</blockquote>
Hence the reluctance to release tax returns and insistence that his business dealings are off-limits to Mueller.<br />
<br />
And of course his super nice guy routine with Putin.<br />
<br />
Because he doesn't know how much Putin knows and he is worried.<br />
<br />
And <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44983285">he will do anything to make sure</a> that it is not a problem.Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7222722476122248258.post-79910465796791302622018-07-01T16:04:00.002+02:002018-07-21T14:38:04.483+02:00Turkish Elections: How Did Erdogan Win?Turkey's pugnacious president Recep Tayyip Erdogan won the most important election of his political career.<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wBqyHz-WNIw/Wziv-9OXpGI/AAAAAAAACNs/VnjBvSNnaP4ocb8voUrAzWztko3cxoGagCLcBGAs/s1600/erdogan-4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="438" data-original-width="780" height="179" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wBqyHz-WNIw/Wziv-9OXpGI/AAAAAAAACNs/VnjBvSNnaP4ocb8voUrAzWztko3cxoGagCLcBGAs/s320/erdogan-4.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/24/europe/turkey-elections-intl/index.html">Erdogan Campaigning</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div style="text-align: right;">
</div>
And he did so decisively.<br />
<br />
He became president in the first round and he preserved his majority in Parliament, albeit through an electoral alliance.<br />
<br />
He achieved all that at a time when the Turkish economy was looking into an abyss with <a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2018/06/turkish-elections-and-why-opposition.html">foreign currency and corporate debt and inflation are all at an all-time high</a>.<br />
<br />
Anyone else in anywhere else would have seen his wings clipped. Not him.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Erdogan's GOP Strategy</span><br />
<br />
He was facing an elactoral alliance composed of:<br />
<br />
a) Republican People's Party (CHP) a secular social democratic party,<br />
b) The Good Party (IP), an ultra-nationalist party led by a charismatic and pious conservative woman,<br />
c) Felicity Party (SP) an Islamist party led by a life-long political Islamist and an early collaborator of Erdogan.<br />
<br />
What is important to note is the fact that the alliance removed the need for each party <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_parliamentary_election,_2018">to clear the 10 percent threshold to get their votes turned into seats</a>. This was done in order to encourage hard core Islamists to vote for SP without worrying that they might be wasting their ballot.<br />
<br />
The idea behind bringing together a staunchly secular party, a conservative, ultra-nationalistic party and an Islamist party was to convince disgruntled AKP voters to consider voting for this new formation.<br />
<br />
And it resonated with many of them. Poll after poll showed that Erdogan would be forced to go to the second round and he would very likely lose his legislative majority.<br />
<br />
Herein lies a twist.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://contrarianprogressive.blogspot.com/2018/05/turkish-elections-and-why-erdogan-might.html">As I posted a couple of week before the elections</a>, one opinion poll found that both Turks and Kurds were more inclined to support IP and its leader Meral Aksener than CHP and its presidential candidate Muharrem Ince.<br />
<br />
In fact, that poll indicated that Aksener would force Erdogan to a second round and could then win the presidency.<br />
<br />
While an outlier, the poll made sense because a very large portion of the Turkish electorate has always had an intense dislike for the CHP.<br />
<br />
Some associate it with a zealous prosecution of Islamist population (it was illegal to wear a hijab or niqab until AKP came to power and women could not wear a headscarf of any kind in schools and universities or government buildings).<br />
<br />
Others hate the party for its long association with the army (the only two times it formed a government were after military coups). And its tacit role in the country's four coups.<br />
<br />
Others see it as a rigid and shallow agents of Western influence with no specific outlook or platform.<br />
<br />
I can go on.<br />
<br />
The fact remains that a significant majority of the Turkish electorate would vote for anyone before they considered CHP.<br />
<br />
Hence the Erdogan strategy.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-T597ME8186o/WzjIFVZp_2I/AAAAAAAACN4/qOvIOsCwpughMpEYYR669gwmqHM0A0GpwCLcBGAs/s1600/Muharrem_%25C4%25B0nce_cropped.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="478" data-original-width="330" height="320" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-T597ME8186o/WzjIFVZp_2I/AAAAAAAACN4/qOvIOsCwpughMpEYYR669gwmqHM0A0GpwCLcBGAs/s320/Muharrem_%25C4%25B0nce_cropped.jpg" width="219" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muharrem_%C4%B0nce">Muharrem Ince</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
He methodically ignored the nationalist conservative Aksener and IP and the Islamist Felicity Party. He solely focused on CHP and its candidate. Since he controls almost all the media outlets they followed suit.<br />
<br />
You could see Ince on many talk shows on in the news bulletins, Aksener, not so much. Mind you, even then the balance between Erdogan - Ince media exposure <a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/06/turkey-opposition-battles-media-banishment-ahead-elections.html">was very much in favor of the former but Aksener was nowhere to be found</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
In the May 1-25 period, the country’s two main news channels, NTV and CNN Turk, dedicated a combined 70 hours of coverage to Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its election ally, the Nationalist Action Party (MHP), according to a report by the two opposition-nominated members of Turkey’s media watchdog RTUK. The report was made available to Al-Monitor. The CHP and Ince got 22 hours, while the Good Party and its presidential candidate, Meral Aksener, got 17 minutes and the HDP received no coverage at all.</blockquote>
In other words, he transformed the elections from being between a coalition of conservative, nationalist, Islamist and secularist parties and Erdogan's AKP into a bipolar Us and Them race.<br />
<br />
Us being the Sunni conservatives, Them being the Western-minded secularists.<br />
<br />
Essentially, Erdogan was saying if it is between me and CHP, who you're gonna call?<br />
<br />
And the electorate chanted "Ghostbusters" as they were expected to.<br />
<br />
Erdogan's message contained the threat that if CHP came to power, despite Ince's reassurances, they would bring back all those anti-Islamist laws. They could force the removal of headscarves, reduce the number of religious schools and go back to Kemalist days of early republic.<br />
<br />
And his base ate it up. After all, candidate Ince might be relatable with his mother and sister both wearing a headscarf, but he is not the leader of CHP.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Gu9y1vMuevk/Wzje33zUKEI/AAAAAAAACOE/NEyO2UiudQcvlelfsPJBlgUpxcGaKFDoQCLcBGAs/s1600/kilicdaroglu2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="428" data-original-width="642" height="212" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Gu9y1vMuevk/Wzje33zUKEI/AAAAAAAACOE/NEyO2UiudQcvlelfsPJBlgUpxcGaKFDoQCLcBGAs/s320/kilicdaroglu2.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.nrttv.com/EN/News.aspx?id=500&MapID=3">Charismnatically challenged Kilicdaroglu</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Since Ince committed himself to going back to the previous system of a ceremonial president with an executive prime minister, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of CHP could soon become prime minister in a new government.<br />
<br />
He is an Alevi, which is an <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alevism">offshoot of Shia Islam</a> and most Sunnis consider them heretic infidels.<br />
<br />
That was Erdogan's message. I know Ince seems nice but you elect him, you will be governed by a secular Alevi. Me or them?<br />
<br />
It is like the GOP telling their base if it is not them, then it is Nancy Pelosi, abortion at every clinic, socialist health care and probably another black president.<br />
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Who cares if Trump is a twice divorced, pussy-grabbing idiot. He is what stands between, conservative, evangelical and racist GOP voters and Pelosi at Co.<br />
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Erdogan has also used GOP's voter suppression techniques.<br />
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Many voting <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_system_of_Turkey">districts were redefined</a>. They changed <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-turkey-election-ysk/turkey-to-relocate-ballot-boxes-kurd-party-cries-foul-idUKKCN1IT1IR">voting stations in the Kurdish region</a> removing them from pro-Kurdish villages. This made voting for many rural Kurds very difficult.<br />
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There was also <a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/978893/turkey-elections-latest-update-erdogan-Muharrem-Ince-result">some evidence of ballot stuffing</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Officers resorted to firing their guns into the air to stop the
threesome in the country’s southeastern province of Urfa from delivering
four sacks stuffed with fake voting cards to the Bilge Primary School,
which was being used as a polling station.</blockquote>
Ballot stuffing is not widespread in Turkey but this incident was not a one-off situation either. I assume ballot stuffing was part of <a href="https://www.evrensel.net/daily/355379/erdogans-a-b-c-plans">Erdogan's Plan B or C or D</a>, something that can be used, on a limited basis, to alter an undesirable outcome.<br />
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For instance, in the 2017 referendum, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) alleged that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-politics-referendum-observers/observer-says-2-5-million-turkish-referendum-votes-could-have-been-manipulated-idUSKBN17K0JW">up to 2.5 million votes might have been manipulated</a>. Out of 55 million voters 2.5 million vote is not a big deal perhaps but if you won the referendum with 1.5 percent, it is a huge deal.<br />
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Which brings me to the other parties and especially the surprising MHP win.<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Other Parties and the Mystery of MHP?</span><br />
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Kilicdaroglu, the beleaguered leader of CHP lost nine consecutive elections but has no intention to resign. In fact, he criticized Ince's performance and said that he did not get as many vote as he should have.<br />
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He is counting on the fact that, despite reducing the party's electoral support from <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_parliamentary_election,_2018">25.32 percent to 22.64 percent he was rewarded with more seats (146)</a> than the previous election (131). Most of that was due to the fact that the number of MPs went up from 550 to 600.<br />
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In any event, Turkey's electoral laws and CHP's bylaws are such that it is almost impossible to remove a party leader through regular democratic means. To give you an idea, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_People%27s_Party_(Turkey)">since 1923 the CHP has had only five leaders</a>. Can you find another such example in the world?<br />
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Meral Aksener, the leader of the nationalistic and conservative Good Party (IP) passed the 10 percent threshold and will have 43 seats in the new assembly.<br />
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The case of her former party the proto-fascist <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationalist_Movement_Party">Nationalist Action Party (MHP)</a> is very interesting. Devlet Bahceli, the leader of MHP fought off Aksener's leadership bid tooth and nail and expelled her from the party. She went on to form IP and Bahceli entered into an electoral alliance with Erdogan and AKP.<br />
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Interestingly, between 1 May and 25 June <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Turkish_general_election,_2018">only a single polling company placed MHP</a> above the 10 percent threshold. Fourteen others predicted that it would never go over.<br />
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There is a good reason for that. The ceiling of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationalist_Movement_Party">MHP's support is around 5.5 to 6 million votes</a>. It once hit 7.5 million (for the June 2015 hung parliament) but contemporaneous opinion polls clearly showed that the additional votes came from disgruntled AKP supporters. And the next time around, in November 2015, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_general_election,_November_2015">the party's vote went back to 5.7 million</a>.<br />
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But let's stipulate, for the sake of the argument that 7.5 million votes is the true potential support level for ultra-nationalistic parties in Turkey.<br />
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In 24 June 2018 elections MHP and IP, which share the same identical electoral base received 10,555,227 votes. That's almost double the regular MHP vote.<br />
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How could MHP get to preserve its share of the vote when half of its base went to support an offshoot party? Even the one opinion poll that gave MHP 10.5 percent found that IP was going to be stuck at 7.4 percent. Yet they received collectively 21 percent of the vote.<br />
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You could argue that since AKP's <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_general_election,_November_2015">vote went from 49.5</a> to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_parliamentary_election,_2018">42.5 percent</a>, a significant percentage of AKP voters went to ultra-nationalistic parties.<br />
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The problem with that argument is that no opinion poll showed such a drastic move away from AKP to ultra-nationalist parties. And why should they?<br />
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With his Afrin excursion, his Syrian adventures in Al-Bab and Manbij and his genocidal tactics in Southeast Turkey Erdogan showed his bone fide as the most nationalistic leader in Turkey. Why would such voters desert him at this juncture?<br />
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In other words, there is no explanation for this 21 percent ultra-nationalistic vote either arithmetically or politically.<br />
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And curiously no one tried to explain this odd result.<br />
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Unless of course, these three guys caught with fake ballot bags were part of a larger effort to get MHP over the 10 percent threshold.<br />
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Where is OSCE when you need them.Contrarian Progressivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11892741778777512298noreply@blogger.com24