Jamal Khashoggi, a self-exiled Saudi journalist was allegedly killed in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. On 2 October, he went in to get a copy of his divorce papers and he never came back out.
His Turkish fiancee, Hatice Cengiz, who was waiting outside the building, alerted the Turkish police. And, uncharacteristically, they immediately launched an investigation.
There was a media frenzy with pro-government pundits pondering how much of an insult was this to Turkey and reporters speculating about the way the guy was murdered. It was pandemonium.
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| Jamal Khashoggi |
On 5 October, MBS told Reuters that Turkish authorities are welcome to search the building.
The next day, anonymous sources within Turkish police told the media that they knew that Khashoggi was killed by a special squad that came from Riyadh. They alleged that the Saudi Hashishin dismembered the body and took the pieces out of the country.
They had a lot of details, including how many assassins, their names, their cars and private jets and of course, juicy bits about dismemberment.
But they offered no evidence for these claims and didn't reveal how they knew all of that.
By that time, practically frothing at the mouth, Turkey's pugnacious president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, also known by his initials RTE, jumped into the fray and declared that Riyadh should prove its claim that that Khashoggi left the consulate.
Then there was a massive international reaction.
While Trump was MIA, his Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was calling for a full-out and transparent investigation. And EU Policy Chief Federica Mogherini seconded him right away echoing his demands.
Not to be left behind, and probably encouraged by the unexpected publicity the case was getting, the UN's Human Rights Office "voiced deep concern (...) urged the two countries to investigate" with a whiff of outrage:
“Yes, this is of serious concern, the apparent enforced disappearance of Mr Khashoggi from the Saudi consulate in Istanbul,” U.N. human rights spokeswoman Ravina Shamdasani told a Geneva news briefing.
The same day, UK's foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt called the Saudi ambassador and demanded an explanation.“If reports of his death and the extraordinary circumstances leading up to it are confirmed, this is truly shocking,” she said.
At that point, my head exploded with questions.
This whole really tragic and unfortunate incident is also so odd that I am at a loss for an explanation.
Why Jamal Khashoggi?
It is no secret that the House of Saud dislikes dissent intensely. I know that's putting it very mildly. And MBS is even more thin-skinned than all his predecessors. So he and his predecessors ordered abductions, murder and other punitive actions with gleeful abandon.
Just focusing on MBS, in 2016, in Geneva, his thugs drugged and violently abducted Prince Sultan bin Turki bin Abdulaziz, a nephew of the late King Fahd for being critical of Saudi leadership.
In late 2015, Prince Turki bin Bandar, a former police major turned Youtube activist disappeared in Paris. Also in 2015, a minor royal and dissident Prince Saud bin Said al-Nasr vanished in Italy.
In these instances, you could say that MBS had a point in getting worried. These guys were members of the House of Saud and they called for extensive reforms and even some form of democracy. And their online activities drew a decent following in Saudi Arabia.
None of it is true for Khashoggi. There was almost no need to worry about him. He had a monthly column in the Washington Post, he appeared on US TV programs. His tone was measured, he hardly criticized MBS or anyone else, other than suggesting a one man rule was not good for the Kingdom.
A critic of the crown prince, Mr Khashoggi was living in self-imposed exile in the US and writing opinion pieces for the Washington Post before his disappearance.Why kill that guy? Why go to the trouble of sending a 15-strong death squad in two private jets, dismember him and smuggle him out of the country and risk at some major negative fallout.
A former editor of the al-Watan newspaper, he was for years seen as close to the Saudi royal family. He served as an adviser to senior Saudi officials.
He was not a threat to the House of Saud.
I can see the deterrent value of the vanishing princes. I am sure, as a result of their disappearance, other minor royals became more circumspect, especially when you also take into account his hotel-prison stunt to extort $100 billion from much more important relatives.
But Khashoggi? Why?
Why the Extensive Media Coverage and Diplomatic Pushback?
I summarized the reactions. They are simply unprecedented.
Saudi Arabia is probably the worst or the second worst dictatorship in the world. Some days the House of Kim is ahead, on others the House of Saud takes the lead. Yet nothing they do makes it into Western headlines. They kill, behead, abduct, torture with impunity.
Do you remember reading about the three princes recently abducted? Of course not.
They are killing millions of Yemenis. You read one or two articles every two months deploring the tragedy and that's about it.
Think about it for a second: Since when Jeremy Hunt gets upset over the disappearance of a relatively unknown Saudi writer? The May government would not even bring up the human tragedy in Yemen for fear of losing arms deals.
Why the reaction for Jamal Khashoggi?
The only reaction that made sense was Trump's as he was using the regular rulebook.
When asked whether he talked to the Saudi ambassador, he said that he did not but he would at some point. He added that he knew nothing right now. He corrected himself and said “I know what everybody else knows — nothing.”
That's what I expected from the other leaders as this is how they normally deal with Saudi horrors.
Then this happened:
Mr Trump told reporters he had talked to the Saudi authorities "at the highest level" about Mr Khashoggi.
Mr Khashoggi, a US resident and critic of the Saudi monarchy, entered the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on 2 October and has not been seen since.
Turkish authorities say Mr Khashoggi was killed. Saudi Arabia denies this.This is surreal. In less than 12 hours this is a complete about face. From Mr Double Down!
"We cannot let this happen to reporters, to anybody," Mr Trump said on Wednesday.
"We're demanding everything. We want to see what's going on there."
Are you kidding me?
Why Turkey?
Why did MBS chose Turkey for this operation?
Khashoggi is a frequent traveller and they could have lured him to a trap like they did with the three abducted princes.
In case his disappearance became public (as it did) it would be a safe assumption that Turkey would not be as malleable as, say, the UK, since it sided with Qatar in last year's Gulf showdown and its president and ruling party adore Muslim Brotherhood, MBS' bete noire.
Besides, Erdogan does not expect any more investment from Saudi Arabia and has no reason to accommodate MBS. This was evident from Erdogan's initial reaction when he demanded proof:
Erdogan told reporters on Oct. 8, during a press conference in Budapest with Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban, that it was “Turkey’s political and humane duty” to follow this affair closely with all the means available to it.
“Consulate officials cannot exonerate themselves by simply saying [Khashoggi] left the premises. If he did, then they have to prove this with visual material,” Erdogan said.In fact, pro-government pundits began agitating the very next day of Khashoggi's disappearance calling it a matter of honor for Turkey.
Aktay later penned op-eds on the affair for pro-government Yeni Safak daily, stating that it was a “matter of international honor for Turkey” to find out the truth. “What happened to Khashoggi in Turkey, to put it bluntly, is not only an operation against him, but also an operation against Turkey,” he wrote Oct. 6.Another pro-government pundit warned of dire consequences for Saudi Arabia.
“If Saudi Arabia had a journalist and dissident murdered at a diplomatic mission in a foreign country, it deserves to be designated a rogue state more than any other nation in the world,” Bostan wrote.
“If Jamal Khashoggi has indeed been killed at the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, there will be legal, political and diplomatic consequences,” he added.Whoever in MBS' inner circle thought that this would be a walk in the park seriously underestimated the political mood and open animosity in Turkey.
How Did The Turkish Authorities Know What Happened?
Another puzzling element is the detailed narrative about Khashoggi's fate within 48 hours of the incident that was serviced to the media. Anonymous sources within the Turkish security establishment knew everything and didn't mind sharing that knowledge.
They had the entire story ready for the media.
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| Source: BBC |
How could they have known that two Saudi jets brought in 15 assassins to kill the journalist?
How could they have known that his body was in a black van that left at the same time as two black Mercedeses?
More importantly, why did the Turkish authorities point the finger when there is no body and no evidence of foul play against such a powerful regional ally?
Normally, Turkey's Islamist government would stay silent in such situations as it wouldn't want to offend the House of Saud whose largess is appreciated by all Middle East countries.
In fact, even without such concerns, the typical police response would be that they were investigating to determine if there was any foul play.
In this instance, they were too happy to share every detail they had and more.
So you say, good questions but do you have any answers?
I don't and I doubt that anyone has any at this point.
But let me venture a guess.
My Speculation
I would not be surprised if this is the beginning of a complicated plot to get rid of Mohammed bin Salman.
He alienated the House of Wahhab and the House of Saud. The entire royal family is scared of him and hates him.
He insists on pursuing a ruinous war in Yemen that is killing hundreds of thousands and depleting the Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund. His initial popularity is in the wane as he had to remove major subsidies to pay for his war.
And he is not even the King right now. There are many concerned countries around the world about his brash decisions and his hothead temperament. He is a man capable of starting a war with Iran that could engulf the whole region, including Turkey and Israel.
That speculation would go a long way of explaining the botched operation in Turkey, the swift and extensive media and diplomatic reactions to the case and the surprising about-face of Donald Trump.
This is just a speculation along the lines of Sir Arthur Conan Doyle. We'll see in due course.
But if a palace coup happens your resident contrarian will not be shocked.
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