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| Prison room service |
As a wealthy investor, bin Talal is on very friendly terms with media barons like Rupert Murdoch and also Wall Street and industry titans. No other Saudi has his contacts or his influence.
To me, it was the only theory that explained all the incongruous elements of the Khashoggi case.
Since that post, a couple of interesting things happened to lend support to my thesis.
Initially, Turkey was not among the countries to be granted an Iranian oil import waiver by the Trump administration. The Bloomberg article I linked to did not have Turkey on the list, now it does. The day after my post, Turkish Trade Minister said that they hoped to be on the list but will know for sure by the following Monday.
Second, Al-Waleed bin Talal's brother who was detained for almost a year was promptly released with no explanation. Unlike Khashoggi, Khalid bin Talal was a vocal critique of MBS.
Tellingly, his release led to a lull in the Khashoggi coverage. It could be a coincidence as there were midterm elections. However, it may be worth noting that the Khashoggi murder was the top story in the weeks and days leading to the same elections.
The Khashoggi story reclaimed its front page status when Turkey's president Tayyip Erdogan announced that Turkish intelligence agency MIT shared an audio recording of the murder with French, German, Russian, Canadian and American authorities.
A major scramble ensued. The French denied it, Canadians acknowledged it and the rest remained silent.
One party that wasn't very happy about this new light shone on the murder was the Trump Administration as they have been trying very hard, along with Benyamin Netanyahu, to keep MBS as the Crown Prince.
Then something very strange happened. Unlike the Trump Administration the American deep state took a decisive position against MBS.
The CIA, whose chief reportedly blackmailed Erdogan to shut him up, went to the Capitol Hill to inform lawmakers that its analysis supported the conclusion that it was MBS who ordered the Khashoggi hit.
And to top it off, they leaked the existence of a phone call recording between Khashoggi and Khalid bin Salman, MBS' brother and Saudi ambassador to the US.
Khalid told Khashoggi he should go to the Saudi consulate in Istanbul to retrieve the documents and gave him assurances that it would be safe to do so, the Post said. The newspaper, citing people familiar with the call, said it was not clear if Khalid knew Khashoggi would be killed, but he made the call at his brother’s direction.More damningly, the CIA also shared another phone call from the consulate.
Maher Mutreb, a security official who has often been seen at the crown prince’s side, made the call to Saud al-Qahtani, a top aide to Prince Mohammed, to inform him the operation had been completed, the Post said, citing people familiar with the call.There is more.
The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is in possession of a phone call recording of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in which he is heard giving an instruction to “silence Jamal Khashoggi as soon as possible,” Hürriyet columnist Abdulkadir Selvi wrote on Nov. 22.The columnist is very close to the government and has been known to have solid ties with the intelligence community. In his column, he suggested that it was Haspel who informed her Turkish counterpart of the existence of the recording.
According to Selvi, CIA Director Gina Haspel “signalled” during her trip to Ankara last month the existence of the wiretapped phone call between Crown Prince Mohammed and his brother Khaled bin Salman, who is Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United States.Why would the CIA share this bit with Turkey who is hellbent on getting rid of MBS?
Second indication that the deep state doesn't find MBS acceptable anymore was the heavy pressure they exerted on him to dramatically change course. After months of complicit silence, as soon as the Khashoggi murder hit the front pages, the Pentagon and the State Department began pressuring Saudi Arabia to cease hostilities in Yemen and end the massive loss of human life.
They also asked MBS to end the Qatari embargo. And there are reports that he refused. At least so far.
That's why the Khashoggi case is so interesting: its extensive coverage and the carefully planned leaks by Turkey provided significant leverage to those who wanted to either force MBS to change course or to simply force him out.
Washington believes it has more influence with Riyadh as its ally tries to repair the damage to the kingdom's standing, and wants to use this opportunity to push for an end to the Yemen war and rebuild Gulf unity against Iran, four sources familiar with the matter said. (...)Against this coalition of the willing stand Trump and Netanyahu.
As you know, Trump double downed and shrugged off the CIA information. Yesterday the White House prevented Haspel to brief Senators on the Khashoggi murder asking Mike Pompeo and James Mattis to inform them. Apparently, this is not the regular protocol.
Bruce Riedel, a veteran CIA official and an expert on the US-Saudi relationship at the Brookings Institution, said: “Gina [Haspel] has been the case officer on this. She traveled to Turkey and she is the one who listened to the tapes and is reported to have briefed the president multiple times.
“This is further evidence that the White House is trying to outdo the Saudis in carrying out the worst cover-up in modern history,” Riedel added.So what is the endgame? And will MBS survive this?
Erdogan's End Game
The biggest beneficiary of the Khashoggi operation has been Turkey's president.
His daily announcements about the gruesome details of the murder and persistent claims about having audio and video evidence put Western governments in a difficult position: He made it impossible for them to ignore the Saudi crime.
Europeans had to humor him. Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Putin accepted his invitation for a Summit on Syria and had to give him grudgingly the role of peacemaker in Syria.
Look at Macron's expression.
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| Four Amigos |
Saudis offered Erdogan money, more investment and the lifting of the Qatari embargo and he refused. In a nicely cynical move, he leaked the offer to make himself look like an honest politician interested only in getting justice for Khashoggi.
He also got offers from the Trump administration.
First they extended an embargo waiver for Iranian oil. Then White House looked for ways to extradite the preacher Fethullah Gulen "to ease Turkish pressure on Saudis". It didn't go over well with career bureaucrats.
Justice Department officials responded to the White House's request saying the review of Turkey's case against Gulen two years ago showed no basis for his extradition and that no new evidence to justify it has emerged, the U.S. officials and others familiar with the requests said.
When that didn't work, Trump made another offer:Trump administration officials then asked for other options to legally remove him, the U.S. officials and others said.
Trump and Erdogan also recently discussed another option to relieve tensions — the release of Turkish banker Mehmet Hakan Atilla, who was sentenced in May to 32 months in prison by a U.S. federal judge for his role in a scheme to evade U.S. sanctions against Iran, two people familiar with the discussion said.Interestingly, no one is mentioning the Halkbank fine anymore even though the trial ended almost a year ago. I am sure a reasonable number is being negotiated.
As a sign of their deep desperation, they offered a bounty of $12 million for PKK's leadership. The offer was met with suspicion and derision with one official saying that "Turkey won't be duped by US in Syria."
My guess is that Erdogan has a gruesome video of the killing and an incriminating conversation about MBS.
He is waiting for two reasons.
The first is to get as much as possible from the Trump Administration. He wants them to reduce the Halkbank fine, give him more room of maneuver in Syria and give him a pass about his increasingly autocratic rule.
He is also waiting for Trump to fully commit himself to MBS' defense. Besides the rambling "maybe he did it, maybe he didn't do it" memo, Trump keeps claiming that nobody knows what happened. If Turkey (or the American deep state) released all their information, he would look like a cartoonishly cynical politician.
And while his ignorant and racist base might not notice, this may cost him the support of many old style conservatives who are increasingly unhappy to see "America the beacon of human rights and freedom" rhetoric being destroyed by Trump's crass Mafioso discourse.
Needless to say, the degree of the damage will depend on the upcoming scandals. Mueller report must be almost done. Among other issues, they now connected Paul Manafort, Trump's campaign manager to Julian Assange. He visited Assange several times at the Ecuadorian Embassy before Wikileaks dumped the DNC emails.
With Trump's tax returns subpoenaed and money laundering schemes exposed by the Democratic majority in the House, Trump will find himself on the defensive and I suspect he will no longer care about MBS.
American Deep State's End Game
When I first wrote about the Khashoggi murder, I expressed my doubt that MBS would lose his position because of this incident. Since the CIA revelations, I am no longer sure.
The Haspel move indicated that the Pentagon, the State Department and the intelligence community consider MBS a volatile and unpredictable leader who is likely to further destabilize the region. Look at his list of achievements:
- Kidnapping and forcing the Lebanese Prime Minister out.
- Attacking Yemen and creating the worst civilian disaster in recent memory with no end in sight.
- Executing the revered Shia leader Nimr al-Nimr and increasing the persecution of the Kingdom's Shia minority.
- Imposing a blockade and severing diplomatic and economic ties with Qatar (and trying to invade it).
- Continuously provoking Iran in an effort to start a war.
In other words, from a long-term American perspective, MBS is no longer a viable leader and the institutional forces which I call the deep state do not want to continue to work with him.
This is the reason why Senators who are Trump allies are pushing for his dismissal in a forceful fashion.
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., long one of Saudi Arabia’s most vocal defenders in Congress, said Tuesday that the kingdom’s powerful crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, has “got to go” and vowed never to return to the country as long as the young leader remains in power.There is also the issue that the intelligence community never forgave Trump for his initial attacks on them and his siding with Putin against them. Look at the vociferous tweets of former CIA Director John Brennan accusing Trump of treasonous complicity with Putin.
In short, very soon, there will be no one, save perhaps Netanyahu, left to defend MBS.
But Netanyahu is as weakened as MBS himself. His botched Hamas assassination attempt, his unpopular ceasefire, his piles of corruption dossiers and the departure of Avigdor Lieberman that left his fragile coalition teetering on the brink are all threat to his political survival. He may not be around after the next elections.
Domestically, in Saudi Arabia, I am pretty sure that forces within the Royal Family are already circling MBS like sharks watching a prey. If it wasn't for the way he handled the aftermath of the Khashoggi murder he could and would have pushed back ruthlessly. Now he is too exposed to be able to go after his enemies.
The House of Wahhab wants him gone as do most of the Princes. The ruling elite that always revered stability above all else fear that MBS is incapable of achieving that. And they worry about their own survival.
The army and the intelligence agencies may no longer have any loyalty to him after he decided to prosecute the Khashoggi team with death penalty hanging over them. You do his dirty deeds and he ends up throwing you under the bus to save his skin.
Remember Caligula and the Praetorian Guard? These things never end well.
In that sense, if I were to guess, I would say MBS' days as Crown Prince are numbered. As soon as Trump finds himself in the fight of his life, he will let go of him and that will be enough for his domestic enemies to unseat him.
And if my theory is correct, this would be a monumental Qatari and Turkish achievement.
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UPDATE:
CIA is leaking like nobody's business. Wall Street Journal just published this:
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman sent at least 11 messages to his closest adviser, who oversaw the team that killed journalist Jamal Khashoggi, in the hours before and after the journalist’s death in October, according to a highly classified CIA assessment.As an aside, let me add that until his detention by MBS, Al-Waleed bin Talal owned 5.5 percent of News Corp (the owner of Wall Street Journal) and was considered a close ally of Rupert Murdoch. He was forced to sell all his shares while in custody.
The Journal also noted this:
The electronic messages sent by Prince Mohammed were to Saud al-Qahtani, according to the CIA. Mr. Qahtani supervised the 15-man team that killed Mr. Khashoggi and, during the same period, was also in direct communication with the team’s leader in Istanbul, the assessment says. The content of the messages between Prince Mohammed and Mr. Qahtani isn’t known, the document says. It doesn’t say in what form the messages were sent.And this
The highly classified CIA assessment says that the Saudi team sent to kill Mr. Khashoggi was assembled from Prince Mohammed’s top security units in the Royal Guard and in an organization run by Mr. Qahtani, the Center for Studies and Media Affairs at the Royal Court, the Saudi royal court’s media department.
“We assess it is highly unlikely this team of operators…carried out the operation without Muhammed bin Salman’s authorization,” it says.And it wasn't just the CIA leaking.
A U.S. official said that the U.S. government has recently developed information that under Mr. Qahtani, personnel from the Center for Studies and Media Affairs have for two years engaged in the kidnapping—sometimes overseas—and detention and harsh interrogation of Saudis whom the monarchy perceives as a threat. The interrogations have led to repeated physical harm to the detainees, the official said.
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