A Coup in Turkey?

I don't normally comment on ongoing situations but too many of my friends asked for my take on what is happening in Turkey, so here it is.

And please bear in mind that I am posting this within the hour of what news channels are reporting as a coup d'etat in progress in Turkey.

First question: Is the coup for real? 

Unlikely.

If it was, they should/would have arrested the President, Prime Minister and Cabinet members before anything else. They didn't.

Not only that, these people were free to get on TV to ask their supporters to call on them to defend "their democracy."

Second question: Could the coup succeed?

When you consider that 49 percent of the electorate voted for the ruling party in the last elections, any attempt to wrestle power from them would meet with serious resistance. So in the unlikely instance that the coup is for real, we should expect serious upheaval, perhaps even a civil war.

The President Tayyip Erdogan has just asked his supporters to march to the airports to defy army officers who took over them and there are reports that they have complied by the tens of thousands.

Mr Erdogan called on people to take to the streets to oppose the uprising.
He said: "I urge the Turkish people to convene at public squares and airports. I never believed in a power higher than the power of the people."

This is a live picture from tonight.

Third question: What happens if the coup fails?

Well, Erdogan will become the unchallenged leader of Turkey.

I mean, really unchallenged. You know, Sultan-unchallenged.

He will establish a presidential system in the next few months and Turkey's move towards an autocratic and conservative Islamist state will accelerate.

In other words, there is no good outcome.

Stay tuned.