When I heard about the riots following the anti-Muhammad movie trailer, my first reaction was curiosity.
Unlike most people who comments about such issues, I first watched the movie trailer. It was not what I expected. The best word to describe it is comical. The camera was shaky, the set was non existent, the sandy deserts were provided by an incredibly amateurish After Effect background plug-in and the acting was terrible. Moreover, all the anti-Muhammad lines were dubbed in either as a voice over or by someone whose voice was very different from the lead actor. They were unmistakably added on. Clearly, this was not a professional production. In fact, most high school students with a Mac laptop could produce a better clip that this.
My initial curiosity was then replaced with a series of questions: why would someone produce such a clearly silly movie? Since the movie was obviously not an end onto itself what were the goals of its producers?
I also wondered how people who never touched a computer in their lives, let alone watch that trailer on You Tube, were informed of its existence? And why they felt so much rage and outrage?
My final question was: who benefited the most from the reaction to the movie?
03 October 2012
The Anti-Muhammad Movie: The Debate
If you are aware of the existence this humble soapbox you know that I am not in the morality business. My usual focus is to try to explain something, not to pass judgement.
Today, I will make a rare exception and discuss both sides of an issue, namely the anti-Muhammad movie and the ensuing riots. First, let me focus on the debate and the morality argument behind it. In a separate post I will discuss who benefited from these incidents.
Sanctity of Freedom of Expression vs Sanctity of Religious Beliefs?
I have been following the debate around the 14-minute trailer of that silly movie with growing incredulity. More than anything else, I have been puzzled by the central argument that was proposed to frame the debate, namely the sanctity of the freedom of expression vs the sanctity of religious beliefs.
I am not a believer and I am a strong supporter of the freedom of expression. In fact, I am an extremist in that regard: I believe that all speech, no matter how odious, should be protected. And I have a profound dislike for any fundamentalist belief systems, religious or not.
So this line of argumentation should speak to me. But it didn't. Because I realized quickly that it was a disingenuous framework designed to predetermine the outcome of the debate and in the process, to solicit the support of people like me.
Today, I will make a rare exception and discuss both sides of an issue, namely the anti-Muhammad movie and the ensuing riots. First, let me focus on the debate and the morality argument behind it. In a separate post I will discuss who benefited from these incidents.
Sanctity of Freedom of Expression vs Sanctity of Religious Beliefs?
I have been following the debate around the 14-minute trailer of that silly movie with growing incredulity. More than anything else, I have been puzzled by the central argument that was proposed to frame the debate, namely the sanctity of the freedom of expression vs the sanctity of religious beliefs.
I am not a believer and I am a strong supporter of the freedom of expression. In fact, I am an extremist in that regard: I believe that all speech, no matter how odious, should be protected. And I have a profound dislike for any fundamentalist belief systems, religious or not.
So this line of argumentation should speak to me. But it didn't. Because I realized quickly that it was a disingenuous framework designed to predetermine the outcome of the debate and in the process, to solicit the support of people like me.
10 September 2012
Louis Vuitton, a Belgian Brand?
I am being facetious, of course.
But when it became known that Bernard Arnault, the owner of LVMH and the richest man in France with a fortune of 41 billion euros, applied for Belgian citizenship the French media went crazy.
The headline used by Liberation "Casse-toi riche con" is a reference to a derogatory phrase Sarkozy uttered (the meaning in English is here) while responding to a protester.
The French media predicted that it was because of the silly 75 percent tax rate promised by François Hollande for people who earn more than a million euros a year.
I doubt that it was the case, as he would not be able to divest himself of his holdings in France. Moreover, the 75 percent tax rate is likely to be applied to salaried income (no one knows what the tax entails yet). In France, for 90 percent of the population, salaried income represents 80 percent of their revenue. Whereas for the super rich, such income is less than 20 percent of their annual revenue.
In other words, Arnault's 41 billion euros fortune is not under a socialist threat.
I suspect it was partly a stunt to bring this silly tax to the agenda. Partly, as his press people noted, he has investment plans in Belgium, where he has had residency permit for more than ten years.
Incidentally, the reason I call it a silly tax is the fact that in the best case scenario this tax will only bring €250 million to the French treasury. But symbolically, it is used to paint Hollande like a traditional tax-and-spend socialist.
For my way of thinking, €250 million is not worth the opportunity it gives to people like Arnault to pull stunts like these.
The headline used by Liberation "Casse-toi riche con" is a reference to a derogatory phrase Sarkozy uttered (the meaning in English is here) while responding to a protester.
The French media predicted that it was because of the silly 75 percent tax rate promised by François Hollande for people who earn more than a million euros a year.
I doubt that it was the case, as he would not be able to divest himself of his holdings in France. Moreover, the 75 percent tax rate is likely to be applied to salaried income (no one knows what the tax entails yet). In France, for 90 percent of the population, salaried income represents 80 percent of their revenue. Whereas for the super rich, such income is less than 20 percent of their annual revenue.
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| Credit Reuters |
In other words, Arnault's 41 billion euros fortune is not under a socialist threat.
I suspect it was partly a stunt to bring this silly tax to the agenda. Partly, as his press people noted, he has investment plans in Belgium, where he has had residency permit for more than ten years.
Incidentally, the reason I call it a silly tax is the fact that in the best case scenario this tax will only bring €250 million to the French treasury. But symbolically, it is used to paint Hollande like a traditional tax-and-spend socialist.
For my way of thinking, €250 million is not worth the opportunity it gives to people like Arnault to pull stunts like these.
Soros on Eurozone: Inflation or Bust
It is not everyday that you discover that George Soros is making the same argument as you. And on something as complex as the Eurozone crisis.
According to the BBC, Soros will give a speech today in Germany and he will recommend that Eurozone countries should have a new growth target of 5 percent. In an article published two days ago in the New York Times Review of Books he contends that to do this, they should give up the austerity idea (what I called, after Krugman, internal devaluation) and should accept a higher inflation rate.
Since Germany is the biggest stumbling bloc in that respect, apparently, Soros is planning to suggest hat Germany should either accept this solution or exit the Euro. Or as he puts it,
Incidentally, Soros believes, as I do, that a German (or Finnish, as predicted by Roubini) exit would be less problematical than a Greek exit, as this latter would almost certainly trigger a domino effect.
It would be interesting to see if anyone would pay attention to Soros' recommendations. In the past, many institutions paid a heavy price for ignoring him. He has an exceptionally sharp understanding of major trends (he sensed the 2008 crisis and took control of his Quantum fund just in time to post a series of very high returns when everyone else was losing substantial sums) and if I were Merkel, I would listen to him carefully.
 |
| Credit Bloomberg |
According to the BBC, Soros will give a speech today in Germany and he will recommend that Eurozone countries should have a new growth target of 5 percent. In an article published two days ago in the New York Times Review of Books he contends that to do this, they should give up the austerity idea (what I called, after Krugman, internal devaluation) and should accept a higher inflation rate.
Since Germany is the biggest stumbling bloc in that respect, apparently, Soros is planning to suggest hat Germany should either accept this solution or exit the Euro. Or as he puts it,
In my judgment the best course of action is to persuade Germany to choose between becoming a more benevolent hegemon, or leading nation, or leaving the euro. In other words, Germany must lead or leave.Indeed, Europe has a German problem.
Incidentally, Soros believes, as I do, that a German (or Finnish, as predicted by Roubini) exit would be less problematical than a Greek exit, as this latter would almost certainly trigger a domino effect.
It would be interesting to see if anyone would pay attention to Soros' recommendations. In the past, many institutions paid a heavy price for ignoring him. He has an exceptionally sharp understanding of major trends (he sensed the 2008 crisis and took control of his Quantum fund just in time to post a series of very high returns when everyone else was losing substantial sums) and if I were Merkel, I would listen to him carefully.
08 September 2012
Big Brother Is Watching
Last, week a group known as AntiSec posted one million UDID or Unique Device Identifiers used by Apple to put together each IOS device (iPhone, iPad or iPods) and its owner's private data.
Basically, we are talking about my iPhone ID along with my address, my numbers, applications I downloaded and a bunch of other personal information.
AntiSec stands for Operation Anti Security and refers to a number of hactivist attacks by members of a group known as LulzSec (Lulz Security). They are associated with the hacker group Anonymous. You might have seen them on TV news wearing Guy Fawkes masks supporting Occupy Wall Street movement.
They hackers released a long statement (worth reading if you want to understand their motivations) to explain that the information came from the laptop of an FBI Special Agent by the name of Christopher Stangl. And the file contained 12 million UDIDs.
In other words, FBI had a large database of personal information of IOS device users (iPhone users to you and me).
They said that, before releasing these one million IDs, they scrubbed the attached personal information.
FBI was not pleased. They first sent out a tweet denying the fact that they had people's private information on an FBI laptop. It is a cute one.
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| Credit wikipedia |
Basically, we are talking about my iPhone ID along with my address, my numbers, applications I downloaded and a bunch of other personal information.
AntiSec stands for Operation Anti Security and refers to a number of hactivist attacks by members of a group known as LulzSec (Lulz Security). They are associated with the hacker group Anonymous. You might have seen them on TV news wearing Guy Fawkes masks supporting Occupy Wall Street movement.
They hackers released a long statement (worth reading if you want to understand their motivations) to explain that the information came from the laptop of an FBI Special Agent by the name of Christopher Stangl. And the file contained 12 million UDIDs.
In other words, FBI had a large database of personal information of IOS device users (iPhone users to you and me).
They said that, before releasing these one million IDs, they scrubbed the attached personal information.
FBI was not pleased. They first sent out a tweet denying the fact that they had people's private information on an FBI laptop. It is a cute one.
16 August 2012
Was "Mubarak's Poodle" Pushed Out?
If you have been reading this blog, you would know that Field Marshall Mohammed Hussein Tantawi was known as Mubarak's poodle during his master's reign. I made it a point to repeat it as many times as I possibly could without appearing petulant or childish.
My purpose has been to highlight the fact that Tantawi was (and is) Washington's man as much as Mubarak was. As you can see in the above links, my view is that the Egyptian Spring was not really a popular revolution, it should more accurately be called a palace coup. Sure there were people chanting in Tahrir Square but they managed to stay there and to make themselves heard because of Tantawi's decision not to force them out. In fact, he did not lift a finger to keep Mubarak in power. Quite the contrary, his army stopped Mubarak's thugs and protected the citizens of the Square.
Everybody knew that the Brotherhood was going to take over and the one major player whose opinions counts seemed quite fine with that prospect. If you have been reading this blog, you'd know that the army and the Brotherhood began collaborating very early on and have been working together every step of the way.
So you can imagine my surprise when most media outlets announced that the newly elected Muslim Brotherhood President Mursi forced Tantawi (Defense Minister for three decades) and the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces Sami Anan to early retirement.
My purpose has been to highlight the fact that Tantawi was (and is) Washington's man as much as Mubarak was. As you can see in the above links, my view is that the Egyptian Spring was not really a popular revolution, it should more accurately be called a palace coup. Sure there were people chanting in Tahrir Square but they managed to stay there and to make themselves heard because of Tantawi's decision not to force them out. In fact, he did not lift a finger to keep Mubarak in power. Quite the contrary, his army stopped Mubarak's thugs and protected the citizens of the Square.
Everybody knew that the Brotherhood was going to take over and the one major player whose opinions counts seemed quite fine with that prospect. If you have been reading this blog, you'd know that the army and the Brotherhood began collaborating very early on and have been working together every step of the way.
So you can imagine my surprise when most media outlets announced that the newly elected Muslim Brotherhood President Mursi forced Tantawi (Defense Minister for three decades) and the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces Sami Anan to early retirement.
06 August 2012
Syria: Is A Palace Coup Unfolding?
A few days ago, I suggested that a palace coup in Syria is the most desirable outcome for the main players in this drama. I enumerated the reasons and ventured that because of that it is also the most likely outcome. I speculated that the upcoming Aleppo massacre might provide the necessary trigger for significant defections.
Two days after I posted this, several high ranking military officers began crossing the Syrian border to join previous defectors in Turkey. Among them was the Deputy Chief of Security Forces of Latakia region, a Brigadier General and the first Syrian astronaut, General Muhammed Ahmed Faris. Yesterday another Brigadier General defected to Turkey accompanied by five high ranking officers.
This brings the total number of generals who passed to the other side to 31.
Today's announcement that the Syrian Prime Minister has joined the rebel forces is making me think that a palace coup is actually underway.
Moreover, BBC reports that:
This is beginning to look like a palace coup is taking place.
Stay tuned.
Two days after I posted this, several high ranking military officers began crossing the Syrian border to join previous defectors in Turkey. Among them was the Deputy Chief of Security Forces of Latakia region, a Brigadier General and the first Syrian astronaut, General Muhammed Ahmed Faris. Yesterday another Brigadier General defected to Turkey accompanied by five high ranking officers.
This brings the total number of generals who passed to the other side to 31.
Today's announcement that the Syrian Prime Minister has joined the rebel forces is making me think that a palace coup is actually underway.
Moreover, BBC reports that:
Unconfirmed reports suggested that two other cabinet ministers had also deserted and there were claims that a third, Finance Minister Mohammad Jalilati, had been arrested while trying to flee.As if on cue, the leader of the main Syrian opposition group Abdelbasset Seida made an unexpected announcement, just yesterday:
The leader of Syria's main political opposition group has said he is ready to negotiate with government officials whose hands are not "stained with blood" once the president, Bashar al-Assad, and his associates leave power.The funny thing is that a short few weeks ago, they denied this very possibility.
This is beginning to look like a palace coup is taking place.
Stay tuned.
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