14 February 2015

The Future Is Bleak For The House of Saud - Part I

Recently, the New York Times ran a front page story about how the Saudis expand their regional power while others falter.

To my contrarian eyes, this was a fairly inaccurate assessment of the current situation. I have been claiming that the House of Saud was built on a very precarious system and their cynical and pernicious symbiosis with the House of Wahhab would put them on a path of destruction in the near future.

Contrary to the New Times' rosy evaluation, with an economy solely based on oil revenues and therefore very sensitive to the vagaries of the oil markets, the aging kings and crown princes are ill-equipped to deal with the Kingdom's internal problems, like the very different aspirations of the youth, (51 percent under the age of 25), the frustration of women and the deep-seated resentment of the Shia minorities both in the Kingdom and in neighboring Bahrain.

If you add to this domestic tableau a region in serious turmoil, the overall crisis reaches a level that surpasses the crisis-management capabilities of the autocratic House of Saud and the reactionary and misogynistic House of Wahhab.

I believe that it is a brittle structure that is likely to break if it is confronted with a multifaceted challenge.

Moreover, I think that day of reckoning is approaching fast. And it will have far-reaching consequences for the Middle East.

In my opinion, the House of Saud is facing four sets of interrelated issues. This post deals with the first two.

The Succession Woes

The House of Saud has no institutionalized system of selecting monarchs. They use an arbitrary form of agnatic seniority as its method of succession, which means brothers have priority over male offspring. This has been the case since the death of the founder of the Kingdom Ibn Saud. And this is why most Saudi monarchs are frail old men.

The late King Abdullah created a body called the Allegiance Council in 2007 to somewhat institutionalize the succession process. It is composed of sons and grand sons of Ibn Saud. However, he never formally consulted it to select Crown Princes.

A few weeks ago, he passed away (incidentally, he died of lung cancer as a life-long smoker and not pneumonia) and he was succeeded by the Crown Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz.

Salman is one of the last remaining sons of Ibn Saud (and one of the Sudairi Seven).

Salman is old (79) and not in good shape, And he is said to be suffering from early stages of dementia. Since his health has been an issue for some time, Adbullah named a Deputy Crown Prince in 2014 and promoted, Prince Muqrin, the youngest son of ibn Saud, to that position.

After Muqrin, it is assumed that the new King will be selected from the next generation, that is, the grand sons of Ibn Saud.

This is one of the first issues: there are other several half brothers of Prince Muqrin, like Prince Ahmed. Ahmed is also one of the Sudairi Seven and when he was appointed Minister of Interior in June 2012 (following the death of Crown Prince Nayef) he was assumed to be next in line. But he was forced out within six months and the job went Nayef's son Prince Muhammad. Using the agnatic seniority principle, Ahmed could still make a case before the Allegiance Council to stop Muqrin's rise to power. It is not very likely but it is possible.

Assuming Muqrin moves up unchallenged, the transition to the next generation is not going to be smooth.

There are three leading candidates.

One is Abdullah's son Mutaib, who is the Minister of the National Guard, a very powerful portfolio created for him by his father Abdullah. Then, there is the Minister of Interior Muhammad bin Nayef. And finally there is Salman's son Muhammad who was appointed Minister of Defense as soon as his father became King, even though he is only 34.





My guess is that Salman will not rule for more than a couple of years. In fact, if dementia rumors are true, he might not even survive that long. After his departure, I expect quite a bit of turmoil, especially if the Allegiance Council decides to take its job seriously.

Between the Minister of the Interior, the Minister of National Guard and the Minister of Defense you have the making of a major power struggle.

There is one more actor who could influence the process from within the system: Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal. The fabulously wealthy grand son of Ibn Saud was recently voted "the most influential Arab" in the world.  His father Prince Talal bin Abdulaziz was a member of the Allegiance Council until he resigned in protest in 2011 and one of his sons has the right to claim his seat.

Until recently, no one thought that Al-Waleed would be interested in meddling in the political affairs of the royal family but lately he seems to be on a collision course with the Saudi Establishment.

Economic Problems

As you know, when the crude prices went below $60, life became very difficult of oil producers. And Saudi Arabia is no exception.

However, even before the falling oil prices Saudi Arabia did not have a healthy economy. The Kingdom gets roughly 93 percent of its revenues from oil products. These revenues are especially important because they allow the royal family to maintain social peace by generously subsidizing every aspect of Saudi life. There is no income tax and most state services are free. About 40 percent of working age Saudis do not bother to work. The public sector is the biggest employer for Saudi citizens and the salaries are significantly higher than private sector wages.

In an ordinary society, such subsidies would be questioned and perhaps removed if the revenues did not cover spending. But the ailing King Abdulah was so afraid of social unrest that he decided to increase spending despite falling oil prices.
[S]ince the start of the Arab Spring in 2011, the Saudi royal family has dramatically increased spending on the kingdom's welfare state to support the unemployed, the middle class and provide affordable housing. Salaries for the 2 million employees of the government, directly or indirectly, have increased. Funding for education and health care has gone up. The king has sought to buy off any dissent. Even in the Shiite Eastern Province spending on public programs has gone up.
Not surprisingly, this largesse led to the largest budget deficit of the Kingdom's history.
Last week, the world's biggest crude exporter announced an expansionary 2015 budget with the largest-ever deficit of $38.6 billion. 
It projected spending at $229.3 billion, a slight rise from last year's estimates, and revenues at $190.7 billion, sharply down from $228 billion projected in 2014.
Now, the Kingdom is not Venezuela. They have reserves of roughly $750 billion. But the reserve fund is handled by Saudi Arabia Monetary Agency, which invests in state bonds with an annual yield of 2.4 percent on average. This return is not enough to cover the kinds of budget deficits Saudi Arabia will have to run if it continues on the current path.

That is because, over and above its lavish domestic spending, the royal family has many foreign clients that depend on its continuous support.
The kingdom is keeping friendly fellow monarchs in Bahrain and Jordan in power with hefty subsidies. The military regime in Egypt is a very expensive ally. Pakistan is another major recipient of Saudi largesse. Yemen is the most immediate crisis. With the Houthi takeover of Sanaa, the kingdom faces a longstanding enemy now dominant on its southwest border. (...)   
One senior Saudi official told me privately that the kingdom spent $30 billion in 2014 propping up its friends — not counting the costs of the wars in Syria and Iraq where Riyadh funds friendly Sunni groups.
Enter Al-Waleed bin Talal, a.k.a. the guy who bought Apple, Citibank, Disney or News Corp stocks when they were dirt cheap to amass a $30 billion fortune.

After Abdullah announced his budget and the deficit that went with it in December, Al-Waleed wrote to the Minister of Finance a furious letter asking him to justify the high spending level and the use of the Saudi reserve funds to cover the budget deficit.

Think about it. This is the world's last absolute monarchy. You don't get to ask the King to justify his decisions. Yet, this is what he did. And used an unusually rude tone in the process.

Al-Waleed is noteworthy for another reason. His Rotana media group is the largest entertainment company in the Arab world. It owns record labels, radio stations and TV channels. Interestingly,
Rotana, largely owned by Saudi Prince Waleed bin Talal, does not follow strict moral codes in relation to the depiction of intimacy between female and male characters. Rotana and Rotana Clip, specialized music TV channels, regularly air music videos that focus on the sexuality of female singers and models. Woman singers are consistently shot in revealing clothes and flirt with the male characters in their videos. 
This is in a country where the mere launch of a TV station led to the assassination of its King:
King Faisal, in a rush to modernize his realm, created Saudi state television in the 1960s, and that bold step is widely believed to have led to his assassination in 1975. 
The Saudi ulema were so upset about Waleed's media activities that they tried to warn him through his brother Khaled bin Talal:
As part of conservative wing in Saudi royal family, Khaled said he had been forced to speak out after quiet efforts to advise his brother to mend his ways had fallen on deaf ears. Khaled, told an Arabic website that his brother's plan to introduce cinema into Saudi society was the straw that broke the camel's back. This was a reference to a Saudi film financed by Al-Waleed bin Talal, and shown in Saudi Arabia late last year despite fierce opposition from Islamist activists.
Al-Waleed does not simply offend the religious establishment of Saudi Arabia. He attacks the royal family as well.
“Fat Cats of the Desert,” a gaudy nighttime soap on a more daring channel on the Rotana network, is in its fourth season, and it portrays rich Saudis as decadent, hard-drinking, free-spending sybarites. The series opens with a disclaimer that says any resemblance to real people is a coincidence, which helps convince many viewers that the desert fat cats are stand-ins for certain members of the royal family.
To top it all, he launched an Al-Jazeera-type all news channel called Al-Arab with the promise of independent reporting and billed itself as "dedicated to free speech."

Yes, dedicated to "free speech" in Saudi Arabia. It was launched on 1 February 2015 and was shut down within hours after it broadcast an interview with a prominent Bahraini dissident.

You see what I mean when I say he is on a collision course with the Saudi Establishment.

As if all of this was not enough, in his letter to the Minister of Finance, he asked the King to turn the Saudi reserves into a Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) and allow him and people like him to run it in order to generate 7-8 percent annual revenues.

Given Al-Waleed's track record, it makes sense for the House of Saud to let him handle the Fund. The level of revenues he is projecting would allow them to run reasonable deficits without draining the reserves.

But that represents a major dilemma for the royal family: If they persist on the current system, they will eventually use up the country's reserves: they already withdrew $58 billion in two years. If they don't, they will no longer be fully in charge of the Kingdom's economy.

Clearly, if Al-Waleed were to invest the SWF, he would have a disproportionally larger say over fiscal matters. He could block certain expenditures like the transfer of huge sums to the House of Wahhab that enable them to export their brand of Islam. He could veto subsidies to some groups or payments to foreign countries.

More importantly, what if, after being put in charge of the SWF, Al-Waleed bin Talal were to claim his father's seat in the Allegiance Council?

Talk about a kingmaker.

For all these reasons, I believe that the Royal family will not put Waleed in charge of SWF and will try to keep him sidelined. The problem is that, with shale gas and fracking, oil prices are unlikely to rise to their previous levels for any sustained period of times.

Already "Standard and Poor's has lowered the outlook for the world's top oil exporter Saudi Arabia to negative" as they believe that the country cannot maintain its strong fiscal position (and credit rating) with sliding oil prices.

Sooner or later, this economic reality will catch up with the royal family.

Now let's turn to their ties to terrorism and their cynical role in the internecine fights within Islam.

31 January 2015

"Bêtes et Méchants" Thoughts on Charlie Hebdo I: The French Case

UPDATE: I decided to divide this post into two parts. Apparently it was too long to be read in one shot.

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When the Charlie Hebdo attack occurred I was in an airplane. Upon landing, I found several messages on my cell phone from well-meaning friends.

You could say that it was my second John Lennon moment.

The friends who called knew that, in my misspent youth, I used to read Charlie Hebdo and its predecessor Hara Kiri magazine religiously. No pun intended.

People like Wolinski, Cabu, Reiser, Delfeil de Ton, Professeur Choron were my anarchist heroes. Even when I completely disagreed with their point of view, I admired their offensive humor and daring stances.

In that sense, that is, as an expression of grief and empathy, I say "Je suis Charlie" without any hesitation.

Je suis Charlie.

But the more I spoke to friends, the more I realized that the moniker Je Suis Charlie was quickly appropriated and turned into a shorthand version of the Clash of Civilizations argument. Indeed, I was struck by the polarizing anger both sides had for the other and the competing narratives full of errors and omissions.

It was a dialogue de sourds designed to present their respective positions as absolute and to ignore the other side's context and arguments. Clearly, no one wanted to hear anything other than a full-fledged corroboration of their stand.

Initially, my intention was to write about the Lone Wolf theories and how terrorists and extreme right wing parties are partnering up to shape the future of Europe.

But, when people I spoke to began urging me to write about "the freedom of expression hypocrisy and European Islamophobia" and the "beheading barbarians who live in our midst to slaughter us" I decided to pull a Charlie Hebdo.

You see, "Journal bête et méchant" [Stupid and vicious magazine] was the slogan of the predecessor of Charlie Hebdo, the Hara Kiri magazine.

I decided that a proper tribute to them would be to write a post that offends everyone.

What follows are the constructed and distilled versions of my many conversations with friends and acquaintances and random individuals.

Muslims go first.

Conversations with Muslim Friends

- What do you think about these attacks?

- I know that killing people is terrible but I cannot condemn the Kouachi brothers because Charlie Hebdo people committed a grave sin.

- What was that?

- Depicting the Prophet. It is forbidden by the Koran. It is a big sin.

- No, it is not.

- What do you mean?

- Just that. It is not. That specific act is not mentioned anywhere in the Koran. In some of the Hadith, that is, the sayings of the Prophet written down many decades after his passing, he is reported to have said that it was not a good idea to represent him because this might turn him into an icon.

Over the centuries this suggestion was turned into a ban to represent any sentient being in any form. And as usual, this absolute ban is the work of the House of Wahhab in the 18th century.

There are countless pictures of people and of the Prophet in previous centuries. When it came to the Prophet they simply omitted to draw his facial features, but the rest of the people were all represented normally.

There is a hand drawn picture of Mohammed in the previous link if you want to see it.

- This can not be true.

- It is. Look at the miniatures, the Ottoman archives are full of them. They depict people in all walks of life.

What is more, the Ottoman Sultans have all had their portraits done.

- Why is that relevant?

- The Ottoman sultans doubled as Caliphs from Mehmed II onward. He claimed the Caliphate when he invaded Constantinople in 1453. His grand son Selim I attacked the Mamluk dynasty and took the actual title from Al Mutawakkil II in 1517.

The Caliph is the ruler of the Ummah and the political and religious successor of the Prophet. There is no higher authority in Islam. If they had their portraits done and displayed them proudly, can you claim to know better and tell me that depicting people is forbidden in Islam?

- OK, I see what you mean but this case is more than depicting the Prophet. These people made fun of Islam.

-  I am not so sure that this was their goal but let's say that they did. Do you know what is the recommended course of action in the Koran when someone makes fun of Islam?

- Yes, our imam told us: Kill them, make them stop, shut them up by any means necessary.

- It is just the opposite.

There are two passages in the Koran that specifically mention the reaction you are supposed to have if you, as a Muslim, see someone making fun of Islam and the verses of the Koran.
The first one is in the Al-An'am sura (68)
And when you see those who engage in [offensive] discourse concerning Our verses, then turn away from them until they enter into another conversion. And if Satan should cause you to forget, then do not remain after the reminder with the wrongdoing people.
This was revealed when the Prophet was in Mecca and the context was the mushrikun making fun of Islam. If you have any notion of Islam you must know what a seriously offensive situation this was. Yet Allah simply tells him and all Muslims to move away and to not come back until these people stopped making fun of Islam.

That is it.

And this is not all. Later when the Prophet is in Medina, Christians and Jews make fun of him and his teachings, Allah intervenes again. This is what he says in An Nisa sura (140).
And it has already come down to you in the Book that when you hear the verses of Allah [recited], they are denied [by them] and ridiculed; so do not sit with them until they enter into another conversation. Indeed, you would then be like them. Indeed Allah will gather the hypocrites and disbelievers in Hell all together.
Where do you see Allah ordering you to kill people who committed blasphemy?

He clearly says, walk away, I will take care of it myself later on. In fact, he reminds the Prophet that he had already sent him a message about this.

Now, what part of the above makes the Kouachi brothers or anyone else an agent of God to kill people? What kind of arrogance should one have to substitute one's own judgement with Allah's? Do you know what a grave sin this is in Islam?

- What you say cannot be true. Our imam told us that the Koran unequivocally orders the killing of people who made fun of Islam.

- Then ask him to show you the exact verses. Just like I did. Incidentally, how can you not check the accuracy of his claims? Especially if he tells you that it is okay to kill someone, should you not even look it up?

- Well, he is a holy man, he would not lie to us.

- If he told you that the Koran orders the killing of such people then he definitely lied to you. In any event, he is most probably a Salafist whose salary is paid by Saudi Arabia and he has been indoctrinating you in Wahhabism.  That hardly makes him a holy man.

I'll bet he has been telling you not to say anything critical of the Kouachi brothers and Amedy Koulibaly.

- Yes, he has.

- There you go. This is how these radical imams are forcing you to side with them. You are either with us all the way or you are against us.

Can you see the irony in all this? Charlie Hebdo people were your most natural allies. They've always stood up for the downtrodden, the immigrant, the outcast, the marginal. They railed against racism, xenophobia, the Front National, the government and institutionalized religion. Their favorite target was the Catholic Church.

Kouachi brothers killed your staunchest defenders.

- Actually I am not so sure that it was the Kouachi brothers who killed the Charlie Hebdo journalists.

- Really? How do you know that?

- Well, the killers hid their faces and acted like professionals, people like that don't lose their ID cards. So some other people must have set them up.

- This only shows that they were not the sharpest knife in the drawer. Or they were so French that they went to kill people with their papers in their pockets. If they had nothing to do with it, how do you explain the call they placed to a journalist to brag about their exploits and to claim the attack in the name of AQAP? How about AQAP confirming it subsequently?

- I don't know. But the whole thing is suspicious. Is it a coincidence that. François Hollande became very popular after these attacks?

- This is one of the oldest logical fallacies: it is known as "post hoc ergo propter hoc." The fact that event B comes after event A does not make them causally linked.

Besides, let's assume the 9/11 conspiracy framework, that is, let's say that the French secret services knew about the attacks but did nothing to stop the Kouachi brothers in order to bolster Hollande's approval rating. It is a stupid idea because they wouldn't lift a finger for Hollande but let's stipulate it for the sake of the argument.

It still leaves you with two Muslims reacting violently to acts that are not deemed offensive in the Koran and using a remedy that is explicitly banned by Allah.

Notwithstanding the secret services conspiracy, what kind of a Muslim does this act make them? And what kind of a Muslim are you to stay silent and to find excuses for their actions?

- You don't understand because you are not one of us. French people hate us so much. When they pass by they look at us funny. They roll their eyes when they see our women in their Islamic garb.

- I get that. I know that you have become "the other."

But do you also see how hard you have been trying to look and act like "the other"?

France is unique among European countries in that, here, racism is cultural. Nobody pays attention to what they call interracial marriages in the US, but you become an instant pariah if you don't do things the French way. "Ça ne se fait pas" [this is not done] is the most often heard phrase in daily life.

Imagine how these people, who freak out when you use the wrong salad fork, feel when they see young men parading around Saint Denis in shalwar kameezes as if they were in downtown Tora Bora. Or women with headscarves.

- What is wrong with that? According to the Koran, women should be completely covered in public. At the very least, they should cover their heads and disguise their bodies.

- That is not true. Hijab, burqa, niqab are not mentioned in the Holy Book. Typically, verses 30-31 of An-Nisa (24) surah is quoted by people who want women to be covered.

But these verses actually talk about beauty that can be revealed in public and beauty that should remain private and the latter does not include face, hair, hands, feet, etc:
Such a striking of feet or walk could only reveal a limited number of parts of the body, e.g. the private parts, buttocks, thighs, breasts, hips, thus any part not revealed by such an action should not be considered part of hidden beauty and therefore part of apparent beauty. Of course, this means such things as face, hair, hands, feet etc would not clearly fall into the category of beauty that is meant to be hidden. 
This understanding would also fit with The Quran's instruction on the body parts that are to be cleansed during daily ablution (hands, arms, face, head and feet), see 5:6, 4:43
In other words, there is no actual religious reason to turn women into black ghosts or even to force them to cover their heads. It is something that came into prominence in the last 40 years and almost everywhere as a result of Salafist push.

Remember these pictures from Afghanistan in the 1960s? Show me a woman with a headscarf.

Or take a look at this clip from 1953 Nasser and Egyptians politicians laughing so hard at the idea of women wearing the veil that they have tears in their eyes. It is in Arabic with French subtitles.



As you can see in that clip, even at the time, the highest priority of conservative Muslims was turning women into black ghosts. They could not do it until the Salafist imams sponsored by the House of Wahhab began pushing for it after 1979.  In fact, as I noted in my last post, they reduced Islam to women covering themselves and to banning alcohol.

They want to prevent you from assimilating into larger society and to continue to exert control over you in your besieged ghettos. They are also creating a very sharp divide between you and the rest of society and forcing you to take a Salafist position. There is no gray area, you are either with them or you are against them. Just like in George W. Bush's crusade.

That is why they insist on shalwar kameez outfits, long beards and headscarves and why they promote the practice of shutting down traffic to have Friday prayers on the streets.

- Why is praying a problem, isn't it our right? What is it to them? They have banned them anyway.

- Tell me honestly, if a priest stopped traffic and held an open air mess in any Muslim country, including a Coptic priest in Egypt where there are 9 million Christians, what would be the reaction of Muslims? Wouldn't they see this as a provocation, as Christians sticking it to them?

Why is it not a provocation when you do it in your adopted country?

If you do, and I agree that it is your right, then why are you surprised when the non-Muslims react negatively?

- These are all excuses, they despise us regardless of what we do. They want to get rid of us.

- They do. But is it solely due to their inner racism? Or does your unwillingness to criticize the radical imams, the extremists among you and your willingness to side with them and segregate yourself from society have something to do with it as well?

Do you remember the 1980's movement behind the slogan "Touche pas à mon pote"? It was supported by a large segment of French society and it was to express their solidarity with immigrants. If they were inherently racist, would they have bothered?

But since then, they changed and you changed. So, don't blame them for everything. You listened to your Salafist imams and retrieved into your community and emphasized visible symbols of being Muslim to signal that you were not interested in being French. And in turn, especially after 9/11 they began to look at you as alien beings.

Everything is dialectical in life.

- So you are blaming us. That is not fair they are the majority they can do what they want to us. They can even deport us even though I lived here most of my adult life and my kids know no other country.

- I am not blaming you. I am simply telling you that it is not helpful to only find fault on the other side. You should also think why they perceive you in a certain way and how their opinions are formed.

- They don't do it either.

- I know and that is my whole point. Unless this mutual intransigence is removed, things will get really nasty. You are right about the deportation business. It is on the agenda. Besides if this government does not do something that will appease the French public opinion (and deporting some people is definitely part of that) the next right wing government will go further.

It is already happening elsewhere as Norway has been deporting record number of Muslims since 2013.

In any event, deportation is just one measure. They could achieve the same result by simply creating a very hostile environment. Look at Germany. Last year 63,000 Turks moved back to Turkey. And they expect similar numbers this year.

- That hostile environment is already there, our kids cannot get jobs. If you have a Muslim name, your application is not taken seriously.

- I understand that. I also know that it is true. In France it is 2.5 times harder for descendants of immigrants to find jobs than anyone else. That is largely because they have recognizable names which allow companies and organizations to remove them from their list.

In that respect, let me make a point. I understand and agree that you have every right to name your kids what you want.  But names matter. There is evidence that suggests that they influence a kid's school performance and even her career opportunities.

Famous musician Frank Zappa named his daughter Moon Unit. And because she was his daughter she became a minor celebrity and the name helped. But if I named my daughter Moon Unit she would very likely end up in a marginal job. Can you imagine, "this is Dr. Moon Unit, the surgeon who will perform your angioplasty"? Or "meet your defense attorney Ms. Moon Unit."

We don't get to select names and then ask the larger society to not attribute any meaning to it. You are free to name them, they are free to react to them. Professor Latanya Sweeney found that Google searches for distinctly black names triggered 25 percent more arrest report ads despite the fact that the person being searched had no criminal record.

I would venture that the Algerian-born French actor Kad Merad would not have become a famous actor if he was named Abdurrahman Rashid al Ansari like your son. In fact, his name at birth was Kaddour and he shortened it to make it sound less ethnic.

What is wrong with that if it is to help your kid overcome some prejudices?

- I named my son Abdurrahman Rashid al Ansari because I don't want him to forget his roots.

- You know what a French person might say to you: if your roots were so important to you why did you uproot your family in the first place?

But let me ask you something, did you teach him Arabic and told him extensively about his country of origin?

- I never had the time. So, he only learned French. Thank God the new imam took him under his wings and taught him Arabic so that he can recite the Koran. He also arranged him to visit Muslim countries.

- In other words, you felt guilty about being an economic refugee and you tried to alleviate this sentiment by branding your son. But you were too busy or too lazy to teach him about his roots. So he grew up in French society, knowing only this culture but feeling like a foreigner who couldn't get a job and who was ostracized at every turn.

When you realized that he did not fit in and was acting up you pushed him towards the Wahhabi imam. And you felt relieved that he was turning him into a good Muslim. Right?

- Yes, he was doing everything I failed to do.

- And got him to visit the holy places in the Middles East and you said nothing.

And your son grew a beard and stopped talking to you. You felt it was OK because he was a good Muslim.

- Yes.

- And he left six months ago to join ISIS and now you are upset. Because you believe it was the fault of French government for not keeping an eye of him.

- You don't understand.

- I think I do.


"Bêtes et Méchants" Thoughts on Charlie Hebdo II: The Muslim Case

When the Charlie Hebdo attack occurred I was in an airplane. Upon landing, I found several messages on my cell phone from well-meaning friends.

You could say that it was my second John Lennon moment.

The friends who called knew that, in my misspent youth, I used to read Charlie Hebdo and its predecessor Hara Kiri magazine religiously. No pun intended.

People like Wolinski, Cabu, Reiser, Delfeil de Ton, Professeur Choron were my anarchist heroes. Even when I completely disagreed with their point of view, I admired their offensive humor and daring stances.

In that sense, that is, as an expression of grief and empathy, I say "Je suis Charlie" without any hesitation.

Je suis Charlie.

But the more I spoke to friends, the more I realized that the moniker Je Suis Charlie was quickly appropriated and turned into a shorthand version of the Clash of Civilizations argument. Indeed, I was struck by the polarizing anger both sides had for the other and the competing narratives full of errors and omissions.

It was a dialogue de sourds designed to present their respective positions as absolute and to ignore the other side's context and arguments. Clearly, no one wanted to hear anything other than a full-fledged corroboration of their stand.

Initially, my intention was to write about the Lone Wolf theories and how terrorists and extreme right wing parties are partnering up to shape the future of Europe.

But, when people I spoke to began urging me to write about "the freedom of expression hypocrisy and European Islamophobia" and the "beheading barbarians who live in our midst to slaughter us" I decided to pull a Charlie Hebdo.

You see, "Journal bête et méchant" [Stupid and vicious magazine] was the slogan of the predecessor of Charlie Hebdo, the Hara Kiri magazine.

I decided that a proper tribute to them would be to write a post that offends everyone.

What follows are the constructed and distilled versions of my many conversations with friends and acquaintances and random individuals.

This is the French people's turn.

Conversations with my French Friends

- What do you think of these attacks?

- I am very upset. I knew something like this was going to happen one day. With these people around, it was a matter of time.

- What people?

- You know, Arabs. Muslims. These people came to our country and now they try to impose their views on us and limit our freedoms. Freedom of expression is the foundation of our republic and it is sacrosanct for us.

- Actually that is not true. Freedom of expression is quite limited in Europe, especially in France. Denying the Holocaust will earn you a lengthy prison sentence. As this blogger notes "to deny the Holocaust is massively stupid but (...) being a moron isn't against the law. Or at least it shouldn't be."

Moreover, in recent years, we witnessed many attempts to limit and criminalize free speech. Here is a bunch of examples. A more recent list can be found here.

Since the Charlie Hebdo attacks over 100 people were arrested for hate speech.

In Toulouse, three guys were fast-tracked to ten months in prison for shouting obscenities to cops. Another one got a one-year prison sentence for making fun of the slain police officer, Ahmed Merabet. While these are reprehensible forms of expression, they should have been protected. They were not.

But even if we stay with the limited example of Charlie Hebdo, the magazine was banned several times by the authorities. In fact, its birth is due to a ban imposed on its predecessor Hara Kiri (for a fairly innocuous joke about De Gaulle's passing).

In the 70s some of its issues were removed from the newsstands, most notably the 8 April 1976 issue which was banned in most of Europe.

- Charlie Hebdo is a satirical magazine, it is free to make fun of everyone. Muslims cannot be an exception.

- Very true. But this principle does not seem to be applicable in every situation. Remember l'Affaire Siné?

In 2009, Charlie Hebdo fired one of its journalists, Maurice Sinet, for making fun of the rumors that Sarkozy's son was going to convert to Judaism to please his future father in law, the owner of the Darty chain. He wrote: "He'll go a long way in life, that little lad."

This quip was deemed anti-Semitic and he was promptly fired by his Editor-in-Chief and he was charged with a hate crime by the State. (He was acquitted and subsequently won a judgement against Charlie Hebdo for unfair dismissal).

His dismissal was encouraged by a large and vocal segment of the French intelligentsia, the very same people who invoked an absolute freedom of expression when the magazine published the infamous Prophet cartoons.

You can see why some people charge your side with hypocrisy.

- You must be supporting Dieudonné's Je suis Charlie Koulibaly FaceBook outburst.

- I don't support anyone or defend any side. I am aware that he is an anti-Semite but I disagree that writing in your FaceBook "Je suis Charlie Koulibaly" should be punishable with a prison sentence. By the way, what you just did is a perfect example of what both sides have been doing. You both present your position as a principled absolute and when shown many contradictions, you accuse people of siding with the enemy.

If you are curious about my position on this matter, I wrote about freedom of expression and religion two and a half years ago. My points still stand. I stated that while I support a much larger definition of freedom of expression than French jurisprudence currently allows, I am also cognizant of the context and power dimension of any speech and how it is perceived by different groups.

Which is another way of saying that the same joke told by a woman might be funny but when told by a man it might become sexist.

My post was about the silly Muhammad movie trailer but I made my point using a Charlie Hebdo cover. Their 8 April 1976 issue had a penis on the cover and the headline was "Notre envoyé special à Rome nous cable: Dieu existe, j'ai enculé le Pape."

The picture on the right is a later reprint.

I argued that while I personally was not offended by the headline and would defend their right to make offensive statements, I could understand why a Catholic, who sees religion as his personal identity and who feels powerless and marginalized in a staunchly secular society (which France was at the time), might take offense.

I suspect you never saw the actual Charlie Hebdo's Muhammad cartoons. Here is a description of some of them.
Muhammad, labelled as such, is shown naked and bending over, begging to be admired. Then the Prophet is crouched on all fours, with genitals bared. “A Star is Born!” the caption reads—a reference to the attention given “Innocence of Muslims,” a trifle of murky and unpleasant provenance, that has been invoked in attacks leading to the death of almost fifty people to date.
You see what I mean?

- These are both very offensive, but as Manuel Walls reiterated the right to blasphemy is absolute. Your example about the Pope supports that.

- Actually, the April 1976 issue was removed from the newsstands in France, Belgium and Portugal. I used to own that issue. And when it was subsequently reprinted, the penis on the cover was no longer there.

So, even the right to blasphemy is not absolute in France.

My point was that while making fun of a group that perceives itself as powerless and ostracized is (and should be) legal and permissible, I do not see it as a worthwhile endeavor. And I understand their outrage even if, as a non-believer, I do not share it.

As Will Self put it "satire is supposed to prick people's consciences and challenge the powerful." If the power structure and societal hierarchy is not there, it becomes problematic.

- These people are not powerless. They occupied entire districts and they behave like they own the country. Women with burqas are everywhere in Europe.

- Do you know how many women were wearing burqas or niqabs in France when the law banning them was passed?

- Tens of thousands, maybe more than one hundred thousand.

- According to the French police, there were 367 women who wore burqas or niqabs in France. 367, out of roughly 2.5 million Muslim women. When the lawmakers did not believe them, they asked the French secret services to do a recount and they obliged and offered a revised number as "up to 2000 women."

There are about 400 burqa/niqab-wearers in Holland and about 100 in Sweden and 150-200 in Denmark. Incidentally, most of them are younger than 40 and a bit more than half of them are Europeans who converted to Islam.

Your anger prevents you from seeing the dynamics behind these religious symbols.

Do you remember the first wave of Algerian immigrants after independence? Anyone with a niqab or an Islamic headscarf among them? They were all happy to be assimilated into the French way of life.

The so-called Islamic garb is a relatively new phenomenon promoted by radical imams and used as a symbol of defiance against the perceived discrimination of Muslims. It cuts them off from the society at large through visible symbols and allow these imams to have greater control over them,

- OK, maybe burqa or niqabs are not as common as I thought. But what about those headscarves?

- Covering women's hair is probably one of the most universal obsessions in human history. For instance, do you remember 1 Corinthians 11:2-16 and how a man does not have to cover his head because he is the image and glory of God whereas a woman should have her head covered because she is only the glory of man?

Or this Wikipedia observation "though head covering was practiced by most Christian women up until the 1960s, it is now a minority practice among contemporary Christians in the West."

It is also mandatory in Orthodox Judaism. In that sense, it has more to do with patriarchy than religion. It is one of those outward symbols that give men control over women's sexuality. Do you think it is a coincidence that the clergy in all religions is overwhelmingly and in most cases exclusively male?

The Muslim headscarf was introduced systematically and purposefully in the last 50 years. For instance, in Turkey "patient zero" was a woman by the name of Sule Yuksel Senler who campaigned in the 1970s for women to cover their heads. This style that you see on the right was created by her and it is now sported by most Turkish Islamist women, including the President's wife.

- If what you say is true and it is the work of radical imams, why don't the Muslims go against them?

- In a perfect world they should. But the current situation is set up to make this extremely unlikely. First, most of the first generation Muslims are economic immigrants who never lived in a civil society. They bow to authority and could not dream of going against a powerful figure as the community imam.

Second, their offspring grew up in Europe without a tangible identity, ostracized by their names and awkward integration into society. At some point (especially after 9/11), with the help of radical imams, they adopted Islam as their primary identity. There was no way they could question the authority of these imams.

Third, after 9/11, the groundwork laid by these imams came to fruition as European and North American societies began to display open animosity towards Muslims. Now, Muslims feel besieged in their communities and they already have a very sharp Us vs Them mentality. Speaking up against the imams or ISIS or Kouachi brothers would be unthinkable as it would be construed as a terrible betrayal.

By the way, most of the imams in France come from a foreign country and more than half of them do not speak French.

But let me ask you this: why hasn't the French government stopped these imams from coming to France and preaching their radical version of Islam? Even if you were unaware of what they were doing, after 9/11, it must have been crystal clear.

Was it complacency or the notion that it was good that they were keeping these people in their banlieue ghettos?

- I don't know the answer to that. Probably both. Or the misguided belief that the state should not get involved in religion.

- The French state gets involved in everything so that cannot be it. North Americans may not understand how much information the French state has on its citizen. If the state knew the exact number (and therefore the identity) or burqa/niqab wearers, it should have known who these imams were and what they were doing.

But it did nothing until 9/11.

After 9/11, they talked about deporting imams who incite violence but it was a half-hearted effort: between 2001 and 2013 only 31 imams were expelled. But even this modest effort was perceived as a crusade against Muslims because it took place after 9/11 and the polarizing perspective promoted by these imams was already well established.

The state is also guilty of not trying harder to solve economic and social problems that turned Paris banlieues into dystopian nightmares. Remember the movie Banlieue 13? It was a science fiction film but in recent years it felt more like a documentary.

The American inner city issues are all part of the daily life in Paris suburbs. Terrible housing, high unemployment, rampant crime and low quality education destroy any chance the second generation might have to escape these miserable conditions.

Did you know that it is two and a half times harder for second generation immigrants to find a job?

And there was sufficient warning about the radical change that was taking place. In 2004, an official report warned that the word Jihad was perceived as something heroic by high school students in these suburbs. But nothing was done about it.

On top of that, the larger society looks upon them as welfare abusers, criminals and unsavory people to be avoided at all cost. Like Americans crossing the street not to be on the same sidewalk with young black males. Unsurprisingly, many of these young people dress like American hip-hop kids and act loud and obnoxious.

In that context, when radical imams turned them around, their families felt relief and gratitude. This is also why you read that many ISIS recruits are formerly petty criminals and drug and alcohol abusers.

- Are you saying that after all the terrible things they have done, we should cater to these bearded barbarians?

- I am not saying anything. It is up to you, But if you do not find a solution, a way to integrate them into your society, you will end up doing terrible things. And that is never good for one's self-image.

Extreme right is on the rise everywhere in Europe, look at Pegida in Germany. In the last European elections the National Front in France was the winner with 25 percent of the vote and got 24 seats out of a total of 74. In Austria Freedom Party has the support of 24-29 percent of the electorate (and 42 percent of those who are under 30). In Sweden, the Sweden Democrats hold 14 percent of the seats in parliament. In the Netherlands PVV still is very powerful force despite a recent decline.

UKIP in the UK is doing very well. In Greece, Golden Dawn won 17 seats despite the fact that most of its leadership was in jail during the campaign.

- So what if we deport some of them?

- Just like post-9/11 animosity was perfect for the radical imams and their message, such a move would strengthen the hands of Islamists in the recipient countries. They will be able to push an even more drastic Clash of Civilization message and will be able to portray Muslims as perennial victims.

Do you think having Turks, Algerians, Tunisians, Moroccans, Egyptians and Libyans see Europe as a threat to Islam and their identity is good for European security?

Also, what about the European identity based on freedom and tolerance and other fundamental principles?

In an Us vs Them context, the Islamists win and you lose.

In case you are not sure, ask the Canadian and American people regarding their decision to block Jewish immigration and to intern Japanese Canadians and Americans during the Second War.

Hasty decisions taken in polarized situation and using dubious information rarely give good results.

But it is your call. I am just a contrarian observer.

05 December 2014

Why Do People Join ISIS?

There is a new UN Security Council report which claims that ISIS recruits its fighters from over 80 different countries from around the world.

You might have heard of the three thousands Europeans, the Kosovars, the Turks or the North Africans.

But have you heard of the ISIS fighter with a Chilean-Norwegian ancestry?

Or the Maldives Chapter of ISIS?

That's them marching in the capital with their black flag.

Okay, you may want to sit down for this one: did you know that a handful of young French Jews converted to Islam and then joined ISIS?

Or this: a Jewish teenager traveled to Syria with a group of 100 young women to become an ISIS comfort woman?

I know what you are thinking: signs of the Apocalypse.

Maybe.

But the question is: Why would young men and women from Canada, the UK, Australia, France and tens of other countries travel thousands of miles and jump through considerable hoops to join a merry band of idiot beheaders.

Or, how does a young man, working in a regular 9 to 5 job in London, decide one day to travel to Syria or Iraq to become Jihadi John and to start butchering innocent people on camera?

How about the hundreds of Turks, Chechnyans, Algerians, Moroccans, Tunisians, Libyans, Egyptians, Saudis, Kuwaitis, Jordanians, Yemenis, Indonesians and Malaysians who joined ISIS?

This is a very popular question to which many, many, many experts provided answers. The majority of them centers around a misguided youth, former drug use and hanging out with the wrong crowd, and almost all of them have a "them weird and scary folks" subtext for Muslims.

I am sure there are many cases that are driven by the psychopathology of the individual (the young Jewish woman comes to mind) or religious delusion.

But I believe that ISIS' attraction is due to a very clever and radical answer it provided to a fundamental schism in Muslim identity. No other Jihadi organization has ever attempted what ISIS achieved.

To explain what that is, I have to make a large detour and cover the beginning of the identity issue, its mid-term radicalization and its sharpening after 9/11.

Hang in there, it is going to be a bumpy ride.

The Flightless Phoenixes Rising From the Ashes of the Ottoman Empire

The Ottoman Empire was based on what is known as the Millet system. Millet is now translated as "nation" but at the time, it referred to people's religious affiliation and was used to identify specific religious communities.

In fact, if you are not familiar with the Ottoman history, you might be surprised to find out that no one under the Ottoman rule referred to themselves as Turks: that was a European denomination (as described in Edward Said's Orientalism).

Ottomans recognized only Muslims, Christians and Jews (People of the Book) and consequently what we identify today as Turks, Kurds, Arabs or some Albanians and Bosnians were grouped together as just Muslims.

When the Ottoman Empire came to an end in 1919, it had already lost most of its Balkan and Middle Eastern provinces. Each newly liberated entity tried to come up with a new national identity.

And that is not as easy as it sounds. There were 600 years that they could not use for nation building.

To overcome this problem, they used three techniques which have since become nearly universal, especially after the decolonization: Going way back in history to find a narrative to anchor their identity. Creating national mythologies about their superiority. And defining themselves ethnically to compensate for the cultural discontinuity in their more recent history.

Greeks were the first ones to come up with the magical formula, as they were one of the first to secede from the Empire and had a glorious pre-history into which they could dip. But it was not an easy ride for the neighboring Albanians and the people of former Yugoslavia.

And things were much worse for the group previously known as Muslims. How do you live as Muslims in non-Islamic States as something other than Muslims?
Salman Sayyid, who teaches at Leeds University and is the author of Recalling the Caliphate, compares it to Charles I's execution, which opened up so many profound questions about the roles of parliament and the crown. In the same way, he says, Muslim thinkers in the 1920s suddenly found they had to ask fundamental questions they had never confronted before: "Do Muslims need to live in an Islamic State? What should that state be like?"
Using the Greek formula would be difficult, because most new entities, created by the Sykes-Picot agreements, had no pre-history to dip into.

The only viable candidate was Egypt and, like Greece in the Balkans, they took the lead. Egyptians had an equally glorious pharaoh past. They combined it with ethnicity and came up with Pan-Arabism. The prefix enabled them to offer the shiny new Arab identity to other Arab countries like Syria, Iraq and later Libya (as in, United Arab Republic, and the Federation of Arab Republics).

Turks were even more confused. In one day, they moved from being the Sword of Islam who provided the Caliphs to the people who abolished that 1300 years old institution.

Where do you go with that identity-wise, especially if you never recognized yourself as Turks?

They had to use the same approach: Create a whole new identity through ancient history, mythology plus ethnicity. To achieve this they unearthed dubious creation mythologies like Ergenekon and reclaimed hitherto obscure Central Asian entities as their forefathers.

Given their current nationalistic fervor, you might be surprised to find out that it took a steady propaganda diet to convince Turks that they were, in fact, Turks. And that being a Turk was a good thing.

The problem with this formula is that, national identities in Europe emerged as a result of bourgeois classes spreading their wings against ancien regimes. In a fairly lengthy process, they pushed aside the aristocracy, the monarchy and the church. In their place, we saw the rise of business classes to a position of power through a system of limited representation and the formation of the ideological edifice of modernity, including secularism, rationalism and the scientific method.

There was no such classes and no such aspirations in the former Ottoman provinces. Without a bourgeois class, components of modernity like rationalism, secularism and nationalism are vacuous notions, especially when compared to a comprehensive and all-encompassing source of identity like Islam.

You see, unlike other religions that you might be familiar with, Islam is not a belief system based on abstract moral precepts. It's main structure is a series of practical guidelines that direct you in every aspect of your daily life. There are rules about what you eat or drink, how you enter a room, what you wear, how you conduct your business, how to talk to other people or even how you have sex. There is no separation of the social and the political. Or the public and the private. Every realm is governed by Islam with very specific and practice-oriented rules.

In that sense, Islam is quite similar to Judaism. The Judeo-Christian continuity is certainly relevant in terms of the Old and New Testaments but the deeper continuity remains regional: both Judaism and Islam are religions of what Karen Armstrong calls orthopraxy (i.e. purity of practice) governing the entire realm of human activities.

The modernist rulers of these new entities, from Ataturk to Nasser, who were mainly cognizant of the European transition from Christianity to modernity, did not understand the sway of orthopraxy. And how ineffective nationalism/modernity would be to fill the gap left by Islam. Especially in a setting where national identities stemmed from artificial narratives and dubious ethnic profiles.

Unsurprisingly, banishing Islam from the daily life and relying on their own pronouncements about the primacy of the nation and the importance of being modern simply produced autocratic regimes characterized by a personality cult.

Later events showed us that all that was required for those weak national identities to crumble was a push from a more structured and purist version of Islam.

And that was provided by the global expansion of the House of Wahhab through the madrassas and Koranic courses financed by Saudi Arabia after 1979 and the radical imams they dispatched to every corner of the world.

Why did they do it, you might ask. And why after 1979.

It is an interesting tale.

House of Saud, House of Wahhab and the Bin Laden Prequel

The political system of Saudi Arabia is quite similar to the Divine Rights of Kings setup in feudal Europe, whereby a religious institution (in this case, the descendants of Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab, who are the holders of the Wahhabi interpretation of Islam) confers legitimacy to an absolute monarch (one of the descendants of  Muhammad bin Saud, the founder of the House of Saud).

One side needs the other to exist. This worked out nicely once the deal was struck between those two men in the second half of the 18th century and helped the House of Saud immensely after they got their independence from the Ottoman Empire early in the 20th century.

Let me note three things here.

Wahhabis call themselves Muwahhidin after the Tawhid principle emphasized by ibn Abd al-Wahab and repudiate the term Wahhabi as a deification of their founder. Second, the descendants of ibn Abd al-Wahab are known as Al ash Sheikh (House of the Sheikh) so my term House of Wahhab is not meant to be accurate but evocative. Third, they are not simple Jihadis, they see themselves as a religious reform movement. They want to review the Koran and Sunnah to uncover the original thinking of early Muslims. However, they are willing to participate in any Jihad and become Mujaheddin, as they did in Afghanistan and elsewhere.

Back to our story.

Sticking to an austere form of Islam was not difficult for poor and rural people; it might have made their harsh life bearable. But once huge reserves of oil were discovered in 1938, the ensuing wealth accumulation, urbanization and consumerism became major challenges for Wahhabi Islam. Muwahhidin tried to slow down the creeping Westernization and the growing distance between the Saudi society and the communal life of early Muslims.

They protested in vein when two TV stations were launched in 1965. They demonstrated constantly against the liberalization of Saudi society in the 1970s. Despite all their efforts, as the country experienced a 25-fold revenue increase between 1970-1979, large pockets of Saudi society began to look more like Iran under the Pahlavi dynasty than Medina under the Rashidun.

And that did not sit well with the Wahhabi ulema. After all, they were the ones providing the legitimacy of the House of Saud. Not Aramco.

The turning point was the siege of Mecca by Juhayman al-Otaybi. That is the well-groomed guy on the right. On 20 November 1979, he invaded the Grand Mosque of Mecca with several hundred armed companions.

What he stood for was very similar to what Bin Laden had asked before joining the Jihadis: "a return to the original ways of Islam, among other things; a repudiation of the West; an end of education of women; abolition of television and expulsion of non-Muslims."

Eventually, the ulema allowed the King to use force to dislodge them from the Mosque and they were arrested and later beheaded.

Here is the crunch.

Even though al-Otaybi was very closely linked to the Wahhabi ulema, once the siege ended, the Saudi king decided that they should be given everything they wanted and more.
Saudi King Khaled did not react to the upheaval by cracking down on religious puritans in general, but by giving the ulama and religious conservatives more power over the next decade. He is thought to have believed that "the solution to the religious upheaval was simple -- more religion." 
First photographs of women in newspapers were banned, then women on television. Cinemas and music shops were shut down. School curriculum was changed to provide many more hours of religious studies, eliminating classes on subjects like non-Islamic history. Gender segregation was extended "to the humblest coffee shop". The religious police became more assertive.
The reason for that seemingly contradictory decision is quite simple. Contrary to what many people assume, Wahhabis make up only 23 percent of the Saudi population and they are mostly concentrated around Najd. In fact, depending on who is counting, there might be more Shia in Saudi Arabia than Wahhabis.

Any situation that jeopardizes the "dominant minority" status of Wahhabis is a direct threat to the House of Saud whose ruling family status is solely based on the legitimacy provided by the House of Wahhab. As a group concentrated in one region and powerless to stop increasing Westernization and consumerism, Wahhabis were rapidly losing ground. The siege set the alarms off and King Khaled moved in decisively to halt that erosion. It was threatening his family's rule.

And he did not stop there.

The House of Saud gave huge sums of petrodollars to the House of Wahhab for them to export their radical vision of Islam.

Once again, they were motivated by self-preservation, as their goal was to push Pan Islamism as an alternative to Nasser's Pan Arabism. They were afraid that Arabs, in general, might be tempted to follow Egypt's lead and eventually their kingdom could be swept away by the nationalism of the masses. In fact, their fight against Pan Arabism predates 1979 but after the siege they decided to redouble their efforts.

And it was a massive undertaking.

Madrassas and Radical Imams Funded by Saudi Arabia

Since 1979, Saudi Arabia spent over $100 billion to finance madrassas and to support the work of radical imams.
Over more than two decades, Saudi Arabia has lavished around $100 billion or more on the worldwide promotion of the violent, intolerant and crudely puritanical Wahhabist sect of Islam that the ruling royal family espouses. (...)
This included financing 210 Islamic centres, 1,500 mosques, 202 colleges and 2,000 madrassas (religious schools). 
Various estimates put the amount the Saudi government spends on these missionary institutions as up to $3 billion a year.
These are conservative estimates as they do not include the huge sums channeled through Islamist charities.

Everybody knows Saudi Arabia'a leading role in radicalizing Islam.

But did you know that, in most settings, these Islamization funds were handled by military regimes?

For instance, there were 137 madrassas in Pakistan at independence. In 2008, they had over 12,000. And oddly enough, it was the work of the generals.

The ghoulish Zia ul Haq, who overthrew the civilian government of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1978, announced a new education policy in 1979, right about the time Saudi petrodollars began to flow to the world:
Zia’s 1979 education policy envisaged 5,000 mosque schools and established a National Committee for Deeni Madaris to transform madrassas “into an integral part of our educational system” (ICG Asia Report 2002, p.10). 
Zia also instituted a system of compulsory zakat (Islamic tax) according to which a certain amount was deducted from bank balances and spent on religious purposes and institutions “worthy of support.” This led to a rapid growth in religious schools and institutions at the local level as it created powerful incentives for opening religious schools.
Similarly, a 1980 coup in Turkey brought to power a military government that viewed Sunni Islam as the unifying ideology of the country.
The Turkish-Islamic Synthesis (..) rose to become the de facto state ideology. In practice, this meant (...) huge budget increases for the Religious Affairs Directorate, rapid building of new mosques and opening of Quran courses, the introduction of mandatory religion classes in state schools (only on Sunni Islam), more tolerance for religious bureaucrats, active encouragement of religious organizations, and a widening of opportunities for graduates of religious imam hatip high schools. In this way, the professedly secular military “tactically open[ed] up a social and political space for Islamist mobilization in Turkey.”
It has been estimated that in the aftermath of the coup, over 14,000 Koranic courses began to operate in Turkey.

So much for the modernizing and secular military elite.

You look at Egypt and you see the same process of Islamization around the same time. There too, the supposedly secular military took the lead. First, Sadat changed the Constitution and introduced the notion that Sharia was the principal source of legislation. He then eliminated the social safety net brought in under Nasser, making the Islamic charities the principal source of welfare assistance for the needy.

Guess where their money came from?

After Sadat was killed, his replacement, Hosni Mubarak, continued the same policies.

You can see this process replicated in all Muslim countries. For instance, Suharto in Indonesia was late to the party but he covered the same ground much faster.

On the right, you see the original promoter of Pancasilia ideology after a radical change of heart in 1991 sporting his new name (Haji Muhammad Suharto) and Islamic garment after pilgrimage.

It is estimated that a quarter of Indonesian primary and secondary school students attend pesantrens (Islamic religious schools).

While financing this massive process of Islamization in previously secular Muslim countries, Saudi Arabia turned its attention to the 15 to 20 million displaced Muslims in Western Europe.
Although not a source of emigrants, wealthy Saudi Arabia has played a major role in sponsoring the construction of mosques, Islamic centers and schools in Europe, and has supplied them with their own imams. 
The initial wave of immigrants to France (primarily Algerian and North Africans) or Germany (Turks) or the UK (Pakistanis) were secular. In France, they tended to assimilate as there was no language barrier and inter-ethnic marriages were not frowned upon. In Germany, Turks kept mostly to themselves, always thinking of their presence there as a temporary arrangement. In the UK, the Pakistanis were in between the two cases, where their linguistic advantage was offset by the British society's unwillingness to assimilate them.

Still, all these groups accepted their minority status as a given and kept their focus on their economic activities. However, this was not the case for the second generation. They were bitter about their second class citizen status and their "neither here, nor there" identities. If their parents' national identities were weak, theirs were far too fragile to withstand any questioning.

In that context, the radical imams in their freshly built mosques and community centers set out to work. Not surprisingly, they were very successful in countries like France, the UK, the Netherlands or Germany where they could influence the second generation of disaffected Muslims.
A Nixon Center study of 373 mujahideen in western Europe and North America between 1993 and 2004 found more than twice as many Frenchmen as Saudis and more Britons than Sudanese, Yemenites, Emiratis, Lebanese, or Libyans. Fully a quarter of the jihadists it listed were western European nationals.
Conversely, these imams failed to attract people into Jihad in countries like Spain and Italy where most of the migrants arrived after 1990.

These two elements, that is, weak national identities and the diffusion of radical Islam that challenged them provided the ingredients of our Jihadi bomb.

They created the "Us" part of the identity.

To complete the circuit, we needed a "Them" component.

And that was furnished by the cataclysmic event we call simply 9/11.

9/11

The attack on the Twin Towers will one day be marked as one of the most important events in modern history. It literally changed the course of history.

But for our purposes here, its most important consequences were to convince hundreds of millions of Muslims that "the West" was out to destroy Islam and Muslims.

In Muslim countries, the preaching of the radical imams had already laid the groundwork by citing the examples of Bosnia and Chechnya where people seemed to be oppressed, attacked and killed just for being Muslim. It seemed like this was the case everywhere, even in India.

When 9/11 occurred, from W's fateful decision to declare a crusade to his determination to invade a Muslim country that had nothing to do with that attack, everything seemed to fit with what the radical imams had been saying in madrassas and mosques around the globe. For the pious masses it was now crystal clear that the West was determined to destroy Islam.

Mind you, this was not just a skewed and off-the-mark perception foisted upon gullible people by some evil clerics. It contained a solid empirical basis. As Colonel Bacevich recently noted, since 1980, the US bombed, invaded or occupied 14 Muslim countries.
Syria has become at least the 14th country in the Islamic world that U.S. forces have invaded or occupied or bombed, and in which American soldiers have killed or been killed. And that’s just since 1980.

Let’s tick them off: Iran (1980, 1987-1988), Libya (1981, 1986, 1989, 2011), Lebanon (1983), Kuwait (1991), Iraq (1991-2011, 2014-), Somalia (1992-1993, 2007-), Bosnia (1995), Saudi Arabia (1991, 1996), Afghanistan (1998, 2001-), Sudan (1998), Kosovo (1999), Yemen (2000, 2002-), Pakistan (2004-) and now Syria. Whew.
[hat tip Greenwald]
So, it wasn't too hard to back up those claims.

Moreover, in the West, the public opinion turned frosty towards Muslim immigrants. In the months after 9/11, there were a series of violent attacks against anyone looking Muslim-ish. Anti-Muslim violence was on the rise in Europe as well, even though most EU members do not collect statistics on the subject.

In a recent book, Glenn Greenwald suggested that a multi-tier justice system emerged after 9/11 with Muslims at the bottom as sub-persons.
One of the things that I talk about in the book is that there has always been a two-tier justice system where (...) if you are wealthy and well connected (...) you are basically insulated from accountability even for egregious law breaking. And then there is the second tier, where if you are poor and powerless, you are subjected to entirely different rules, you have this incredibly harsh criminal justice system that comes crashing down upon you even for trivial transgressions. 
But now there is even this lower tier, a tier of nonpersons, or sub-persons, where there is not even the pretense of the rule of law, and that is basically Muslims who are accused in some way of being involved with the support of terrorism. (...) And so you see the creation of an even lower category of the law that is very much grounded in this bias against Islam and Muslims that is just a further distortion and deviation of the idea of equality before the law.
While the first generation of Muslims in Western Europe remained shaken by this new situation, the second generation, their kids, who grew up with the echos of the radical imams' fervent sermons, were swept by the lure of this comprehensive identity that channeled their anger and frustration and sense of victimization.

It enabled them to replace the dubious and second class identity of their parents with the idea of belonging to a global community regardless of class, ethnicity and skin color.

And joining was easy.

Show up for prayers, listen to the imam. For the rest, Wahhabi imams distilled the entire religion into two simple behavioral rules.

No alcohol and women have to cover themselves.

There are a number of studies that established that the use of Islamic garments like burqa, niqab or hijab skyrocketed after 9/11. It was both a statement of defiance and a sign of belonging to a larger community.

But, as is always the case, women ended up paying a much higher price for the same defiance. What began as a sort of protest act, soon led to tremendous intra-community pressure on women who refused to cover themselves up.  Moreover, it also served to marginalize Muslim women and justify overt discrimination against them.

The second generation's sense of being targeted and victimization triggered other pointless acts of defiance like open air Friday prayers in some suburbs of Paris.These and countless other polarizing acts were actively encouraged by the radical imams in Western Europe.

For instance, the best known case, the infamous cartoons for the Prophet incident, was wholly fabricated by these imams. The 12 cartoons were published in September 2005 in a local Danish paper and nobody cared much. A local association filed a complaint with the authorities but that was it. Until that is, a few months later, some European imams began a tour of the Middle East to whip up some reaction and as we know they succeeded beyond measure.

Helping those imams gleefully were the right wing parties like Front National in France or the Party for Freedom in the Netherlands. They discovered that pointing to the nature morte created by these radical imams, a.k.a. the second generation Muslim men with shaved heads, long beards and shalwar kameez outfits with niqab wearing wife in tow was a surefire way to get more votes. And engaging in debates about the violent and misogynous nature of Islam proved to be even better.

And they did. And the other side said, I see your bet and I raise you.

In that sense, you could say that, given the inherent problems with the Muslim identity, the public reaction after 9/11 and the goading of radical imams provided the perfect platform for Jihadi recruitment.

But there is one more element to the puzzle. Why did they choose ISIS over any other Jihadi outfit, including and especially al Qaeda?

That, as they say, is an excellent question.

Why ISIS?

If you have been reading this blog for some time, you might be aware that I am fascinated by ISIS or more correctly, by the forces that seem to be behind ISIS. I maintain that ISIS actions cannot be explained if we go with the assumption that they are a bunch of displaced Muslim youngsters trying to reach martyrdom.

They are far too skillful for that. Their military strategies are exceptional and military operations are highly efficient. Their multimedia empire is peerless and their ideological moves are very intelligent.

There is simply no such Jihadi organization in the world. More importantly, there is absolutely no reason for a Jihadi organization to built itself like ISIS and to do what ISIS has been doing.

I would suggest that the main reason why people from 80 different countries flock to ISIS is the fact that the new and radically different identity it offers solves more than one problem: Joining ISIS frees you from your past allegiances, provides you with redemption and resets the Muslim identity question that arose in the aftermath of the abolition of the Caliphate.

Look at this poster.

It says "Jihad is purification no matter who you are or what sins you have, no good deeds are needed to come before it. Don't let nothing hold you back."

And the punchline, "Sometimes people with the worst pasts create the best futures."

I was wrong to call them the band of idiots formerly known as ISIS. The team behind this is anything but. Selling redemption is not easy and clearly ISIS has the tools and the creative team to conduct a very successful advertising and marketing campaign.

You know of their incredible multimedia machine and their astute use of social networks. They have film studios churning out high quality, feature length movies.

They tweet incessantly their battle exploits to a growing global audience. They have Android apps that can re-tweet those messages eliminating the possibility of blocking their marketing efforts.

Their slick campaign targets specific market segments and speaks the language of these media-savvy young people.

But this is not all marketing, there is substance behind all this.

After their initial successes, ISIS did something unexpected. It changed its name to Islamic State and declared itself the Caliphate. I have to confess that, at the time, I did not get the significance and cleverness of this move.

I knew that symbolically, ISIS was striving to give to those lost Muslim masses a chance to recreate the golden age of the Rashidun.
Seventy years after the Prophet's death, this Muslim world stretched from Spain and Morocco right the way to Central Asia and to the southern bits of Pakistan, so a huge empire that was all… under the control of a single Muslim leader," says historian Prof Hugh Kennedy. "And it's this Muslim unity, the extent of Muslim sovereignty, that people above all look back to." 
But I did not immediately grasp the enormous significance of ISIS' move. By changing its name and the nature of their organization, ISIS provided a clear and definitive answer to the question that emerged after the abolition of the Caliphate.
 "Do Muslims need to live in an Islamic State? What should that state be like?"
The answer was yes and that new state was to be called the Islamic State.

Hence the name change.

In short, ISIS provided a brutal and radical solution to the Muslim identity issue that emerged after the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire and the Caliphate.

Or to put it more economically, ISIS reset the clock to 1924 and rendered the national identities moot.

Hence the attraction.