The End Game In Khashoggi Murder: Is MBS on His Way Out?

In my previous post, I suggested that the gruesome murder of Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul could be the result of a joint Qatar-Turkey intelligence operations which aimed to provoke Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) to greenlight a risky hit and find himself in big trouble.

Prison room service

Since ordinarily the disappearance of a Saudi citizen would not have gotten much attention, I offered my guess that the surprisingly sustained media campaign and the withdrawal of CEOs from the Davos in the Desert might have been engineered by Al-Waleed bin Talal, the royal prince who was previously imprisoned, tortured and robbed by MBS.

As a wealthy investor, bin Talal is on very friendly terms with media barons like Rupert Murdoch and also Wall Street and industry titans. No other Saudi has his contacts or his influence.

To me, it was the only theory that explained all the incongruous elements of the Khashoggi case.

Since that post, a couple of interesting things happened to lend support to my thesis.

Initially, Turkey was not among the countries to be granted an Iranian oil import waiver by the Trump administration. The Bloomberg article I linked to did not have Turkey on the list, now it does. The day after my post, Turkish Trade Minister said that they hoped to be on the list but will know for sure by the following Monday.

Second, Al-Waleed bin Talal's brother who was detained for almost a year was promptly released with no explanation. Unlike Khashoggi, Khalid bin Talal was a vocal critique of MBS.

Tellingly, his release led to a lull in the Khashoggi coverage. It could be a coincidence as there were midterm elections. However, it may be worth noting that the Khashoggi murder was the top story in the weeks and days leading to the same elections.

The Khashoggi story reclaimed its front page status when Turkey's president Tayyip Erdogan announced that Turkish intelligence agency MIT shared an audio recording of the murder with French, German, Russian, Canadian and American authorities.

A major scramble ensued. The French denied it, Canadians acknowledged it and the rest remained silent.

One party that wasn't very happy about this new light shone on the murder was the Trump Administration as they have been trying very hard, along with Benyamin Netanyahu, to keep MBS as the Crown Prince.

Then something very strange happened. Unlike the Trump Administration the American deep state took a decisive position against MBS.

The CIA, whose chief reportedly blackmailed Erdogan to shut him up, went to the Capitol Hill to inform lawmakers that its analysis supported the conclusion that it was MBS who ordered the Khashoggi hit.

And to top it off, they leaked the existence of a phone call recording between Khashoggi and Khalid bin Salman, MBS' brother and Saudi ambassador to the US.

Khalid told Khashoggi he should go to the Saudi consulate in Istanbul to retrieve the documents and gave him assurances that it would be safe to do so, the Post said. The newspaper, citing people familiar with the call, said it was not clear if Khalid knew Khashoggi would be killed, but he made the call at his brother’s direction.

More damningly, the CIA also shared another phone call from the consulate.

Maher Mutreb, a security official who has often been seen at the crown prince’s side, made the call to Saud al-Qahtani, a top aide to Prince Mohammed, to inform him the operation had been completed, the Post said, citing people familiar with the call.

There is more.

The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is in possession of a phone call recording of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in which he is heard giving an instruction to “silence Jamal Khashoggi as soon as possible,” Hürriyet columnist Abdulkadir Selvi wrote on Nov. 22.

The columnist is very close to the government and has been known to have solid ties with the intelligence community. In his column, he suggested that it was Haspel who informed her Turkish counterpart of the existence of the recording.

According to Selvi, CIA Director Gina Haspel “signalled” during her trip to Ankara last month the existence of the wiretapped phone call between Crown Prince Mohammed and his brother Khaled bin Salman, who is Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United States.

Why would the CIA share this bit with Turkey who is hellbent on getting rid of MBS?

Second indication that the deep state doesn't find MBS acceptable anymore was the heavy pressure they exerted on him to dramatically change course. After months of complicit silence, as soon as the Khashoggi murder hit the front pages, the Pentagon and the State Department began pressuring Saudi Arabia to cease hostilities in Yemen and end the massive loss of human life.

They also asked MBS to end the Qatari embargo. And there are reports that he refused. At least so far.

That's why the Khashoggi case is so interesting: its extensive coverage and the carefully planned leaks by Turkey provided significant leverage to those who wanted to either force MBS to change course or to simply force him out.

Washington believes it has more influence with Riyadh as its ally tries to repair the damage to the kingdom's standing, and wants to use this opportunity to push for an end to the Yemen war and rebuild Gulf unity against Iran, four sources familiar with the matter said. (...)

Against this coalition of the willing stand Trump and Netanyahu.

As you know, Trump double downed and shrugged off the CIA information. Yesterday the White House prevented Haspel to brief Senators on the Khashoggi murder asking Mike Pompeo and James Mattis to inform them. Apparently, this is not the regular protocol.

Bruce Riedel, a veteran CIA official and an expert on the US-Saudi relationship at the Brookings Institution, said: “Gina [Haspel] has been the case officer on this. She traveled to Turkey and she is the one who listened to the tapes and is reported to have briefed the president multiple times. 

“This is further evidence that the White House is trying to outdo the Saudis in carrying out the worst cover-up in modern history,” Riedel added.

So what is the endgame? And will MBS survive this?

Erdogan's End Game

The biggest beneficiary of the Khashoggi operation has been Turkey's president.

His daily announcements about the gruesome details of the murder and persistent claims about having audio and video evidence put Western governments in a difficult position: He made it impossible for them to ignore the Saudi crime.

Europeans had to humor him. Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Putin accepted his invitation for a Summit on Syria and had to give him grudgingly the role of peacemaker in Syria.

Look at Macron's expression.

Four Amigos

He also outplayed the Saudis. They had no idea what kind of evidence he had and consequently, they couldn't put together a coherent defense. Their frequently changing story confirmed their guilt and seriously damaged MBS' and royal family's international standing.

Saudis offered Erdogan money, more investment and the lifting of the Qatari embargo and he refused. In a nicely cynical move, he leaked the offer to make himself look like an honest politician interested only in getting justice for Khashoggi.

He also got offers from the Trump administration.

First they extended an embargo waiver for Iranian oil.  Then White House looked for ways to extradite the preacher Fethullah Gulen "to ease Turkish pressure on Saudis". It didn't go over well with career bureaucrats.

Justice Department officials responded to the White House's request saying the review of Turkey's case against Gulen two years ago showed no basis for his extradition and that no new evidence to justify it has emerged, the U.S. officials and others familiar with the requests said. 

Trump administration officials then asked for other options to legally remove him, the U.S. officials and others said. 

When that didn't work, Trump made another offer:

Trump and Erdogan also recently discussed another option to relieve tensions — the release of Turkish banker Mehmet Hakan Atilla, who was sentenced in May to 32 months in prison by a U.S. federal judge for his role in a scheme to evade U.S. sanctions against Iran, two people familiar with the discussion said.

Interestingly, no one is mentioning the Halkbank fine anymore even though the trial ended almost a year ago. I am sure a reasonable number is being negotiated.

As a sign of their deep desperation, they offered a bounty of $12 million for PKK's leadership. The offer was met with suspicion and derision with one official saying that "Turkey won't be duped by US in Syria."

My guess is that Erdogan has a gruesome video of the killing and an incriminating conversation about MBS.

He is waiting for two reasons.

The first is to get as much as possible from the Trump Administration. He wants them to reduce the Halkbank fine, give him more room of maneuver in Syria and give him a pass about his increasingly autocratic rule.

He is also waiting for Trump to fully commit himself to MBS' defense. Besides the rambling "maybe he did it, maybe he didn't do it" memo, Trump keeps claiming that nobody knows what happened. If Turkey (or the American deep state) released all their information, he would look like a cartoonishly cynical politician.

And while his ignorant and racist base might not notice, this may cost him the support of many old style conservatives who are increasingly unhappy to see "America the beacon of human rights and freedom" rhetoric being destroyed by Trump's crass Mafioso discourse.

Needless to say, the degree of the damage will depend on the upcoming scandals. Mueller report must be almost done. Among other issues, they now connected Paul Manafort, Trump's campaign manager to Julian Assange. He visited Assange several times at the Ecuadorian Embassy before Wikileaks dumped the DNC emails.

With Trump's tax returns subpoenaed and money laundering schemes exposed by the Democratic majority in the House, Trump will find himself on the defensive and I suspect he will no longer care about MBS.

American Deep State's End Game

When I first wrote about the Khashoggi murder, I expressed my doubt that MBS would lose his position because of this incident. Since the CIA revelations, I am no longer sure.

The Haspel move indicated that the Pentagon, the State Department and the intelligence community consider MBS a volatile and unpredictable leader who is likely to further destabilize the region. Look at his list of achievements:

- Kidnapping and forcing the Lebanese Prime Minister out.
- Attacking Yemen and creating the worst civilian disaster in recent memory with no end in sight.
- Executing the revered Shia leader Nimr al-Nimr and increasing the persecution of the Kingdom's Shia minority.
- Imposing a blockade and severing diplomatic and economic ties with Qatar (and trying to invade it).
- Continuously provoking Iran in an effort to start a war.

In other words, from a long-term American perspective, MBS is no longer a viable leader and the institutional forces which I call the deep state do not want to continue to work with him.

This is the reason why Senators who are Trump allies are pushing for his dismissal in a forceful fashion.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., long one of Saudi Arabia’s most vocal defenders in Congress, said Tuesday that the kingdom’s powerful crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, has “got to go” and vowed never to return to the country as long as the young leader remains in power.

There is also the issue that the intelligence community never forgave Trump for his initial attacks on them and his siding with Putin against them. Look at the vociferous tweets of  former CIA Director John Brennan accusing Trump of treasonous complicity with Putin.

In short, very soon, there will be no one, save perhaps Netanyahu, left to defend MBS.

But Netanyahu is as weakened as MBS himself. His botched Hamas assassination attempt, his unpopular ceasefire, his piles of corruption dossiers and the departure of Avigdor Lieberman that left his fragile coalition teetering on the brink are all threat to his political survival. He may not be around after the next elections.

Domestically, in Saudi Arabia, I am pretty sure that forces within the Royal Family are already circling MBS like sharks watching a prey. If it wasn't for the way he handled the aftermath of the Khashoggi murder he could and would have pushed back ruthlessly. Now he is too exposed to be able to go after his enemies.

The House of Wahhab wants him gone as do most of the Princes. The ruling elite that always revered stability above all else fear that MBS is incapable of achieving that. And they worry about their own survival.

The army and the intelligence agencies may no longer have any loyalty to him after he decided to prosecute the Khashoggi team with death penalty hanging over them. You do his dirty deeds and he ends up throwing you under the bus to save his skin.

Remember Caligula and the Praetorian Guard? These things never end well.

In that sense, if I were to guess, I would say MBS' days as Crown Prince are numbered. As soon as Trump finds himself in the fight of his life, he will let go of him and that will be enough for his domestic enemies to unseat him.

And if my theory is correct, this would be a monumental Qatari and Turkish achievement.
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UPDATE:

CIA is leaking like nobody's business. Wall Street Journal just published this:

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman sent at least 11 messages to his closest adviser, who oversaw the team that killed journalist Jamal Khashoggi, in the hours before and after the journalist’s death in October, according to a highly classified CIA assessment.

As an aside, let me add that until his detention by MBS, Al-Waleed bin Talal owned 5.5 percent of News Corp (the owner of Wall Street Journal) and was considered a close ally of Rupert Murdoch. He was forced to sell all his shares while in custody.

The Journal also noted this:

The electronic messages sent by Prince Mohammed were to Saud al-Qahtani, according to the CIA. Mr. Qahtani supervised the 15-man team that killed Mr. Khashoggi and, during the same period, was also in direct communication with the team’s leader in Istanbul, the assessment says. The content of the messages between Prince Mohammed and Mr. Qahtani isn’t known, the document says. It doesn’t say in what form the messages were sent.

And this

 The highly classified CIA assessment says that the Saudi team sent to kill Mr. Khashoggi was assembled from Prince Mohammed’s top security units in the Royal Guard and in an organization run by Mr. Qahtani, the Center for Studies and Media Affairs at the Royal Court, the Saudi royal court’s media department.

“We assess it is highly unlikely this team of operators…carried out the operation without Muhammed bin Salman’s authorization,” it says. 

And it wasn't just the CIA leaking.

 A U.S. official said that the U.S. government has recently developed information that under Mr. Qahtani, personnel from the Center for Studies and Media Affairs have for two years engaged in the kidnapping—sometimes overseas—and detention and harsh interrogation of Saudis whom the monarchy perceives as a threat. The interrogations have led to repeated physical harm to the detainees, the official said.

Why Was Jamal Khashoggi Killed: A Contrarian Theory

As my longtime readers will remember, I have a bit of an obsession with Saudi Arabia.

I have been fascinated by how they spend hundreds of billions of dollars since 1979 to radicalize Muslims everywhere by reducing Islam to three ostracizing notions through Wahhabi imams they dispatched everywhere. With nary a peep from the West.

I also expressed my doubts about the economic viability of the Kingdom and pointed to the inherent risks hidden in their succession mechanisms.

The Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) dramatically exacerbated the structural flaws of the regime by launching a costly war in Yemen, removing subsidies that kept Saudis docile, ruthlessly eliminating rivals, increasing the oppression of the Shia minority, alienating the ulema and the House of Wahhab and extorting money from prominent Saudi businessmen and royal family members.

Add to this, his move to invade Qatar to grab their Sovereign Wealth Fund, you have the making of a Shakespearean Crown Prince whose fate may be determined by the numerous domestic and foreign enemies.

This is the context of the Jamal Khashoggi murder.

There were three very important elements of the story that made no sense as I noted at the outset.

Why Khashoggi?

Jamal Khashoggi

Why would you have a mild mannered journalist with no discernible domestic constituency killed in a such risky and gruesome manner.

And why would you do this in a country that stood with Qatar against Saudi Arabia just because the guy said free press is good and the war in Yemen is bad in Washington Post.

Since then, I found out that Khashoggi was even less of a threat than I realized. It turns out that in his writings in Arabic, Khashoggi was a conservative Islamist who sided with the Saudi regime on almost anything.

You might be surprised to learn that he was a believer in Osama bin Laden's jihad and he covered his Mujahideen efforts by joining his army.

The other Jamal Khashoggi

The guy at the center holding an RPG is him.

Even if you buy the preposterous notion that bin Laden would allow embedded reporters, does he look like one to you?

He later advocated the Islamization of Arab politics and viewed secular regimes like Al-Assad's Syria as unreformable.

And he thought Mohammed Bin Salman was a good reformist.

Khashoggi’s vision was an “Arab uprising” led by the Saudi regime. In his Arabic writings he backed MbS’s “reforms” and even his “war on corruption,” derided in the region and beyond. He thought that MbS’s arrests of the princes in the Ritz were legitimate (though he mildly criticized them in a Post column) even as his last sponsoring prince, Al-Walid bin Talal, was locked up in the luxury hotel. Khashoggi even wanted to be an advisor to MbS, who did not trust him and turned him down.

While it is true that his monthly Post columns occasionally mentioned the importance of free press, they hardly constituted a devastating attack on MBS or the royal family.

Besides, MBS banned Khashoggi's family to travel abroad. If MBS was so upset about his columns he could have used his son Salah as leverage and shut him up.

Why Turkish Media Play?

The second element that was puzzling was Turkey's daily insistence that they had audio and video proof that Khashoggi was murdered and dismembered by a squad of assassins without ever divulging that evidence.

But when you think about it, that unusual Turkish tactic served a purpose.

Those regular leeks kept the narrative alive. One day, it was the gruesome dismemberment, the next, the name of the goons and the next there was the bone saw. And then a musically-oriented autopsy specialist.

The daily leaks also put MBS in a difficult position about what explanation to push.

In fact, because Saudi officials didn't know what kind of evidence Turkish authorities had, they were forced to use trial balloons to test various theories. If it was video, then rogue elements; just audio, then interrogation went wrong, outside audio, then accidental death in a fist fight and inside audio-video, rogue elements again.

Turkey's Tayyip Erdogan promised to reveal the audio and video recordings he claimed he had on 23 October but after a brief visit from Ms. Torture Gina Haspel he changed his mind.

Haspel’s brief was very simple. She took with her intercept intelligence that purportedly shows massive senior level corruption in the Istanbul Kanal project, and suggested that Erdogan may not find it a good idea if intelligence agencies started to make public all the information they hold. 

Former ambassador Craig Murray maintains that the story had legs and put Western government on the defensive because Turkey showed the evidence they had to all the relevant intelligence agencies.

The Turkish account of the murder of Khashoggi given by President Erdogan is true, in every detail. Audio and video evidence exists and has been widely shared with world intelligence agencies, including the US, UK, Russia and Germany, and others which have a relationship with Turkey or are seen as influential. That is why, despite their desperate desire to do so, no Western country has been able to maintain support for Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.

Why The Turkish Intelligence Presence?

The third element that is strange is the fact that the Turkish intelligence agents were ready to collect evidence that fateful day.

Embassies are legitimate intelligence targets and every country tries to spy on foreign delegations. But consulates are rarely relevant to justify expensive surveillance. And clearly, Saudis thought that was the case in Istanbul.

However, Turkish intelligence officials were there in full force ready to greet the assassins.

Unbeknown to the Saudis, Turkish intelligence officials from the national spy agency, MIT, were listening in. (...)

Scenarios range from a bug placed in the consulate itself to a directional microphone focused on the building from outside – both technically within the realms of Turkey’s capabilities.

Craig Murray, who was shown some still pictures from the murder scene, suggests that they did not look like they were taken with a fixed camera. The two possibilities are: one, Khashoggi wearing a camera as he went in, which would mean he was expecting to be accosted. In which case, why would he take that risk?

Two and the more likely explanation is a Skype exchange with Riyadh and there are many unconfirmed reports that the Turks intercepted such a communication. What is interesting is the fact that Skype conversations are encrypted end-to-end using uncrackable 256 bit AES encryption.

The only way they could do it is to compel Microsoft to hand them over the video call, as such communications flow through its servers and are routinely decrypted and encrypted before sending them forward.

The speed with which Turkish authorities gathered this evidence would indicate prior knowledge of the incident.

A Contrarian Theory of Murder

If, as I and some Middle East experts believe, Jamal Khashoggi would not have been killed for his Washington Post columns, the question then is, what would it take to get MBS overreact and order his murder in Turkey?

And who would set it up?

Remember that, unlike previous victims who were drugged or duped to be taken to Saudi Arabia for their eventual disposal, MBS wanted Khashoggi to be questioned right away. Time was of the essence. That's why they tortured him. And why they reported back via Skype.

My theory is that it was a joint Qatar Turkey intelligence operation with the sole purpose of embarrassing, weakening or perhaps pushing out Mohammed Bin Salman.

And my guess is that, the plot received substantial support from inside the royal family.

Let me explain.

A short while ago, a Jeddah daily accused Khashoggi of secretly meeting the Emir of Qatar at New York's Four Seasons Hotel. Here is a Google Translate link of the article. They author even claimed that the Washington Post gig was a gift from Qatar.

Now, that's a biggie.

Why would the Emir of Qatar even be in the same room with an insignificant Saudi journalist? What could they have discussed? It had to be something very important for the Emir to talk to Khashoggi.

MBS had to know. Hook, line, sinker.

At that point Khashoggi applies for his divorce papers in a Saudi consulate in the US (I can't find the link). On Riyadh's instructions he was told to get them in Istanbul since he was getting married there.

It's no hardship since his fiancee is in Istanbul. He travels to Turkey and applies to the consulate. They tell him to come back the following week to get his papers.

While the Saudis get ready to grab him in the consulate, Turkish intelligence agents set up shop around the consulate with all their snooping devices. They have a court order to compel Microsoft to hand over Skype communications originating from the consulate.

Hatice Cengiz was waiting at the gate. In her shoes how long would you have waited? She waited eleven hours from 1 PM to midnight.

She also immediately alerted pro-government journalists who started asking questions about Khashoggi's disappearance and the next day they penned incendiary columns branding the incident as a stain on Turkey's honor.

Turkish authorities immediately declared that Khashoggi was dead and insisted that they had incontrovertible evidence showing his murder.

They started drip-feeding daily information. The tail number of the planes, the names of the assassins, Khashoggi's call for help, bits of conversation in the consulate, anything.

In Europe and North America, the story grew bigger by the day. Turkey feeding daily info could not have kept the story at the top of the headlines, especially with Trump doing everything to make it disappear.

Someone else must have been involved, I thought.

Then (to my utter surprise) powerful financial forces joined the fray and started pulling out of the Davos in the Desert, which is a brainchild of MBS.

The Dutch, French, UK ministers were the first along with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. World Bank and IMF followed suit.

On the business side, besides Richard Branson, the CEOs of Deutsche Bank, Siemens, ABB, Uber, JP Morgan Chase and Softbank cancelled. Bloomberg, CNN, Financial Times and New York Times withdrew their media sponsorship.

When was the last time, business titans rebuked a wealthy autocrat?

These are folks who didn't even raise the issue of tens of thousands of Yemenis being slaughtered by Saudi bombs every day. Why would they let go of an opportunity to make more billions just because a journalist was killed in a diplomatic mission.

It makes sense only if one of their friends leaned on them and promised future business opportunities if they embarrass MBS further and damage him economically.

At Ritz-Carlton Prison

There is only one Saudi in the world who can do that and that is Al-Waleed bin Talal.

The man whom MBS imprisoned, tortured, humiliated for 83 days and extorted billions from. The largest individual shareholder of the Citigroup and second largest voting shareholder of the 20th Century Fox.

Besides being worth $30 billion, he is close friends with Rupert Murdoch, everybody on Wall Street and all the CEOs listed above.

Why Would Qatar and Turkey (Erdogan) Do This?

In Qatar's case the stakes are obvious. The costly embargo is still on and the invasion plans are simply on hold. Weakening and then removing MBS is a critical goal for Qatar.

In Turkey's case, this is a gift that keeps on giving.

Saudi Arabia had cooled its relations with Turkey after Erdogan's angry criticisms of Saudi-sponsored could d'etat that toppled Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi. Now they are begging Erdogan not to release the murder evidence.

The New York Times, citing an unnamed Turkish official, reported that Saudi Prince Khalid bin Faisal Al Saud, who secretly met with Erdogan last week in Turkey, had “offered a package of inducements for Turkey to drop the case — including financial aid and investments to help Turkey’s struggling economy and to end a Saudi embargo on Qatar, a Turkish ally.” Erdogan had “angrily rejected” them as a “political bribe.” 

It's likely that Prince Mohammed made some fresh offers to Erdogan, who is now clearly in the driver’s seat.

Ending the Qatar embargo was on the table. Can you believe that? And he rejected it as he wants more.

Wow!

Erdogan has also pushed Trump in a tight corner.

Sure, Trump is a cynical and shameless liar, but how do you handle the daily drip-drip information coming from the Turkish side. MBS is Kushner's buddy and Trump's main partner against Iran. If he goes, there goes Trump's entire Middle East policy.

And Erdogan says he has the goods to make it happen. And he shared them with every intelligence agency that mattered. So Trump cannot afford to attack Erdogan.

What does Erdogan wants from Trump?

A much smaller Halkbank fine would be the first thing. If that happens, you'll know that my crazy contrarian theory makes sense.

Two, he would insist on Iran oil waivers. Currently, eight countries have received them, there is still no word about Turkey. If that happens, well, you know what that means.

Moreover, in the Middle East, this would position Erdogan as the honest broker between Sunni and Shia. Once MBS is out of the way, Al-Sisi of Egypt would become a much lonelier figure and he is the only competition Erdogan has.

Erdogan deals with Iran on a daily basis and has no (real) problem with them. Every other Sunni country does. So that makes him the go to guy in the region. And that spells regional superpower.

Finally, that enables Erdogan to present himself as the guy who takes the moral ground, someone who, far from being an autocrat, fights such odious people.

Would This Be Enough to Get Rid of MBS

I don't know.

Saudi Arabia is doing a little better with $80 barrel price point but the war in Yemen is eating up all the additional revenue.

If the price goes higher, fracking outlets will come back online so MBS does not have much room of maneuver.

The Aramco IPO is not happening and may never happen.

On the other hand, King Salman is not lucid and he might not be able to sign a decree to replace MBS with someone else.

Time will tell.

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UPDATE:

This is from the BBC:

Do the senior princes temper this all-powerful figure by removing just enough of his powers to appease the US Congress and other Western bodies, some of which are now calling for an arms boycott? 

Do they "dethrone" him altogether, giving him some titular promotion to a meaningless sinecure? 

Or do they try to weather the storm, as they tried to do, unsuccessfully, after this story broke a month ago?

In fact, there are extremely serious discussions going on right now behind closed doors in Saudi royal circles. 

Returning Brother

The gravity of the crisis facing the ruling al-Saud family can be gauged by the sudden return to Riyadh on Tuesday of Prince Ahmed bin Abdelaziz, the last surviving full brother of the 82-year old King Salman. 

What is interesting is that Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, the last of the Sudairi Seven was convinced that MBS was out to get him for having criticized the war in Yemen and he was living in London in self-imposed exile.

Some view this as a challenge to MBS. And a power play for the throne.

MBS was one of the senior people who greeted him at the airport.

Clearly he is worried.

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UPDATE 2

Turkey's bombastic President Tayyip Erdogan came out with another accusation against MBS and brought Nato in.

In an op-ed published in the Washington Post, he maintained that while King Salman was unaware of the plot to kill Jamal Khashoggi, the order was given by the highest levels of Saudi government.

"We also know that those individuals came to carry out their orders: Kill Khashoggi and leave. Finally, we know that the order to kill Khashoggi came from the highest levels of the Saudi government."

If King Salman is out, this could only mean MBS.

And for good measure he added this:

"No one should dare to commit such acts on the soil of a Nato ally again," he said. "If anyone chooses to ignore that warning, they will face severe consequences."

That is clearly a hint to Trump, reminding him that what happened in Turkey should be seen in the larger context of Nato alliance.

According to the Washington Post, Egypt's President Al-Sisi and Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu lobbied the White House to protect MBS.

Curiously, Washington Post's editorial board brought Nato in as well to support their argument that MBS should be removed.

Mohammed bin Salman’s advocates argue that holding him accountable would risk turmoil. There is a fundamental illogic to this. The crown prince has already done much to destabilize the region, by leading a military intervention in Yemen, launching a boycott of Qatar and kidnapping the Lebanese prime minister. If he is allowed by the United States to get away with murdering a journalist inside a diplomatic facility in a NATO country, what will he be emboldened to do next — and what license will other dictators take, both in the Middle East and elsewhere?

And the silence from the White House and the State Department is deafening.