To the shock and dismay of Republicans in Congress, the military-industrial complex and America's NATO allies, Donald Trump declared that he was withdrawing all the American troops in Syria.
He did it despite strong opposition from his own cabinet, his staunch supporters in the Senate and America's various allies around the globe.
He didn't even flinch when his Secretary of Defense James "Mad Dog" Mattis abruptly resigned over the issue.
Subsequently, when Syria envoy Brett McGurk resigned, he called it a "non-event."
America's withdrawal from Syria means several things.
One, Bashar al-Assad will remain in power completing the dreaded "Shia Crescent."
Two, without the US, Russia and Iran will be the main players in Syria and will largely determine the future of the country and the entire Middle East.
Three, Turkey will be free to enter Northern Syria and bomb Syrian Kurds, a key US ally in fighting ISIS, killing tens of thousands.
Please tell me how these three points make any sense from an American perspective.
The Shia Crescent, which assumes that Iran, Iraq and Syria are trying to encircle the Sunni Arabs, was the main reason why the Gulf countries tried to destabilize Al-Assad's regime and Saudis launched their murderous campaign in Yemen.Why would they accept this silently?
Moreover, leaving Iran and Russia as the main power players in the region could not be desirable for Israel or the Sunni countries.
Iran will now steadily increase its influence throughout the region.
Already, Russia, Iran and Turkey are working with the Special UN Envoy Staffan de Mistura to draft the new Syrian constitution.
Why was Iran's most implacable foe Bibi Netanyahu's reaction a muted "we will study it"?
Other than Russia and Iran the country that clearly benefits from this withdrawal is Turkey. There are now reports that Trump made that decision on the spot while talking to Turkey's President on Thursday stunning his advisors.
“Why are you still there?” Erdoğan demanded, according to the account.I don't believe for a minute that Trump is the kind of guy who would not react belligerently to a question like "why are you still there?" let alone side with such an interlocutor.
With the Turkish leader still on the line, Trump asked the same question of his national security adviser, John Bolton, who repeated US policy until then, that the defeat of Isis had to be “enduring”, preventing the possibility of a resurgence.
To the surprise of Bolton and Erdoğan, Trump instantly sided with the Turkish president.
He made it clear that the pull out was to leave Turkey in charge.
Before the Trump's withdrawal decision Erdogan had already declared his intention to attack Syrian Kurds in the coming weeks. He gave a major speech announcing the start a large scale operation in Syria. Two days later he threaten to invade Manbij if the US refuses to remove YPG fighters from the area.
Typically such a bellicose approach does not work well with Pentagon or the White House especially since Turkey is not in a position to start hostilities anywhere if the US is opposed to them.
When I heard the withdrawal decision, I immediately concluded that it had something to do with the Khashoggi murder and Trump's desire to protect Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS).
The muted Israeli reaction and the deafening silence from the Gulf countries supported my guess.
Then I saw this on Al Jazeera, the Qatar-based news network:
"They [people in Congress] are also suggesting that Trump is doing this as a favour to Turkey - the reason he wants Turkey onside, perhaps, is to ease the pressure on Saudi Arabia, particularly over the death of Jamal Khashoggi," said Fisher, referring to the October 2 murder of the Saudi journalist inside the kingdom's consulate in the Turkish city of Istanbul.In other words, Trump threw the Syrian Kurds under the bus to protect MBS, which means Turkey, as I have been claiming, has damning evidence implicating the Crown Prince and is threatening to use it at every turn.
Unfortunately for both MBS and Trump, this will not go far. The pull out is scheduled to complete in 100 days.
During that time, Syrian Kurds will reach out to Bashar Al-Assad and offer their help and support in his campaign to reclaim his rule and the Russians will support that move.
At that point neither Turkey nor the US will be able to do much the change the power balance on the ground.
Once again Putin will be the kingmaker. Because of that there is even a chance that the withdrawal might never take place.
The timeline also coincides with the conclusion of the Mueller investigation, whose findings are expected to be made public sometime in February.
With Trump in a fight for his life, MBS will lose his principal backer. At which point a palace coup might take place and a new Crown Prince might emerge.
We'll see in due course.
But one thing is clear, the Khashoggi murder will continue to have profound consequences.
----------------
UPDATE:
In case you were wondering:
But shortly after announcing Mr Shanahan's appointment on Sunday, Mr Trump moved to calm widespread concerns over the pullout which he initially said would be "rapid".
Mr Trump said on Twitter that he had spoken with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey about "our mutual involvement in Syria, & the slow and highly coordinated withdrawal of US troops from the area".He was blackmailed. And now he is trying to reassure the American "deep state."
Good luck with trying to square that circle.
--------------
UPDATE 2
In case you were wondering about the corner Trump found himself in:
Turkey is massing troops near a town in northern Syria held by a Kurdish-led force backed by the US, a war monitor and Turkish media have said.I really wish MBS was worth it.
The buildup comes despite Ankara saying it would delay a promised offensive in eastern Syria in the wake of Donald Trump’s surprise announcement on Wednesday to withdraw US troops from the country, which it welcomed.
But he is not.
----------------
UPDATE 3
Here is what former NATO commander retired General Wesley Clark said about the withdrawal:
During a CNN appearance on December 24, Clark stressed that “there doesn’t seem to be any strategic rational for the decision. And if there is no strategic rational, then you have to ask, ‘Why was the decision made? I can tell you that people around the world are asking this. And some of our friends and our allies in the Middle East are asking, ‘Well, did Erdogan blackmail the president? Was there a payoff or something? Why would a guy make a decision like this?’” [my emphasis]You read it here first.
