As my longtime readers will remember, I have a bit of an obsession with Saudi Arabia.
I have been fascinated by how they spend
hundreds of billions of dollars since 1979 to radicalize Muslims everywhere by reducing Islam
to three ostracizing notions through Wahhabi imams they dispatched everywhere. With nary a peep from the West.
I also expressed my doubts about the economic viability of the Kingdom and pointed to the inherent
risks hidden in their succession mechanisms.
The Crown Prince
Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) dramatically exacerbated the structural flaws of the regime by launching a costly war in Yemen, removing subsidies that kept Saudis docile, ruthlessly eliminating rivals, increasing the oppression of the Shia minority, alienating the ulema and the House of Wahhab and extorting money from prominent Saudi businessmen and royal family members.
Add to this, his move to invade
Qatar to grab their Sovereign Wealth Fund, you have the making of a Shakespearean Crown Prince whose fate may be determined by the numerous domestic and foreign enemies.
This is the context of the Jamal Khashoggi murder.
There were three very important elements of the story that made no sense as
I noted at the outset.
Why would you have a mild mannered journalist with no discernible domestic constituency killed in a such risky and gruesome manner.
And why would you do this in a country that stood with Qatar against Saudi Arabia just because the guy said free press is good and the war in Yemen is bad in Washington Post.
Since then, I found out that Khashoggi was even less of a threat than I realized. It turns out that in his writings in Arabic, Khashoggi was a conservative Islamist who sided with the Saudi regime on almost anything.
You might be surprised to learn that
he was a believer in Osama bin Laden's jihad and he covered his
Mujahideen efforts by joining his army.
The guy at the center holding an RPG is him.
Even if you buy the preposterous notion that bin Laden would allow embedded reporters, does he look like one to you?
He later advocated
the Islamization of Arab politics and viewed secular regimes like Al-Assad's Syria as unreformable.
And he thought
Mohammed Bin Salman was a good reformist.
Khashoggi’s vision was an “Arab uprising” led by the Saudi regime. In his Arabic writings he backed MbS’s “reforms” and even his “war on corruption,” derided in the region and beyond. He thought that MbS’s arrests of the princes in the Ritz were legitimate (though he mildly criticized them in a Post column) even as his last sponsoring prince, Al-Walid bin Talal, was locked up in the luxury hotel. Khashoggi even wanted to be an advisor to MbS, who did not trust him and turned him down.
While it is true that his monthly Post columns occasionally mentioned
the importance of free press, they hardly constituted a devastating attack on MBS or the royal family.
Besides, MBS banned Khashoggi's family to travel abroad. If MBS was so upset about his columns he could have used his son Salah as leverage and shut him up.
Why Turkish Media Play?
The second element that was puzzling was Turkey's daily insistence that they had audio and video proof that Khashoggi was murdered and dismembered by a squad of assassins without ever divulging that evidence.
But when you think about it, that unusual Turkish tactic served a purpose.
Those regular leeks kept the narrative alive. One day, it was the gruesome dismemberment, the next, the name of the goons and the next there was the bone saw. And then a musically-oriented autopsy specialist.
The daily leaks also put MBS in a difficult position about what explanation to push.
In fact, because Saudi officials didn't know what kind of evidence Turkish authorities had, they were forced to use
trial balloons to test various theories. If it was video, then
rogue elements; just audio, then
interrogation went wrong, outside audio, then
accidental death in a fist fight and inside audio-video,
rogue elements again.
Turkey's Tayyip Erdogan promised to reveal the audio and video recordings he claimed he had on 23 October but after a brief visit from
Ms. Torture Gina Haspel he changed his mind.
Haspel’s brief was very simple. She took with her intercept intelligence
that purportedly shows massive senior level corruption in the Istanbul
Kanal project, and suggested that Erdogan may not find it a good idea if
intelligence agencies started to make public all the information they
hold.
Former ambassador
Craig Murray maintains that the story had legs and put Western government on the defensive because Turkey showed the evidence they had to all the relevant intelligence agencies.
The Turkish account of the murder of Khashoggi given by President
Erdogan is true, in every detail. Audio and video evidence exists and
has been widely shared with world intelligence agencies, including the
US, UK, Russia and Germany, and others which have a relationship with
Turkey or are seen as influential. That is why, despite their desperate
desire to do so, no Western country has been able to maintain support
for Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.
Why The Turkish Intelligence Presence?
The third element that is strange is the fact that the Turkish intelligence agents were ready to collect evidence that fateful day.
Embassies are legitimate intelligence targets and every country tries to spy on foreign delegations. But consulates are rarely relevant to justify expensive surveillance. And clearly, Saudis thought that was the case in Istanbul.
However,
Turkish intelligence officials were there in full force ready to greet the assassins.
Unbeknown to the Saudis, Turkish intelligence officials from the national spy agency, MIT, were listening in. (...)
Scenarios range from a bug placed in the consulate itself to a directional microphone focused on the building from outside – both technically within the realms of Turkey’s capabilities.
Craig Murray, who was shown some still pictures from the murder scene,
suggests that they did not look like they were taken with a fixed camera. The two possibilities are: one, Khashoggi wearing a camera as he went in, which would mean he was expecting to be accosted. In which case, why would he take that risk?
Two and the more likely explanation is a Skype exchange with Riyadh and there are many unconfirmed reports that the Turks intercepted such a communication. What is interesting is the fact that
Skype conversations are encrypted end-to-end using
uncrackable 256 bit AES encryption.
The only way they could do it is to compel Microsoft to hand them over the video call, as such communications flow through its servers and
are routinely decrypted and encrypted before sending them forward.
The speed with which Turkish authorities gathered this evidence would indicate prior knowledge of the incident.
A Contrarian Theory of Murder
If, as I and
some Middle East experts believe, Jamal Khashoggi would not have been killed for his Washington Post columns, the question then is, what would it take to get MBS overreact and order his murder in Turkey?
And who would set it up?
Remember that,
unlike previous victims who were drugged or duped to be taken to Saudi Arabia for their eventual disposal, MBS wanted Khashoggi to be questioned right away. Time was of the essence. That's why they tortured him. And why they reported back via Skype.
My theory is that it was a joint Qatar Turkey intelligence operation with the sole purpose of embarrassing, weakening or perhaps pushing out Mohammed Bin Salman.
And my guess is that, the plot received substantial support from inside the royal family.
Let me explain.
A short while ago, a Jeddah daily
accused Khashoggi of secretly meeting the Emir of Qatar at New York's Four Seasons Hotel.
Here is a Google Translate link of the article. They author even claimed that the Washington Post gig was a gift from Qatar.
Now, that's a biggie.
Why would the Emir of Qatar even be in the same room with an insignificant Saudi journalist? What could they have discussed? It had to be something very important for the Emir to talk to Khashoggi.
MBS had to know. Hook, line, sinker.
At that point Khashoggi applies for his divorce papers in a Saudi consulate in the US (I can't find the link). On Riyadh's instructions he was told to get them in Istanbul since he was getting married there.
It's no hardship since his fiancee is in Istanbul. He travels to Turkey and applies to the consulate. They tell him to come back the following week to get his papers.
While the Saudis get ready to grab him in the consulate, Turkish intelligence agents set up shop around the consulate with all their snooping devices. They have a court order to compel Microsoft to hand over Skype communications originating from the consulate.
Hatice Cengiz was waiting at the gate. In her shoes how long would you have waited?
She waited eleven hours from 1 PM to midnight.
She also immediately alerted pro-government journalists who started asking questions about Khashoggi's disappearance and
the next day they penned incendiary columns branding the incident as a stain on Turkey's honor.
Turkish authorities immediately declared that Khashoggi was dead and insisted that they had incontrovertible evidence showing his murder.
They started drip-feeding daily information. The tail number of the planes, the names of the assassins, Khashoggi's call for help, bits of conversation in the consulate, anything.
In Europe and North America, the story grew bigger by the day. Turkey feeding daily info could not have kept the story at the top of the headlines, especially with Trump doing everything to make it disappear.
Someone else must have been involved, I thought.
Then (to my utter surprise) powerful financial forces joined the fray and started pulling out of the Davos in the Desert, which is a brainchild of MBS.
The
Dutch, French, UK ministers were the first along with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. World Bank and IMF followed suit.
On the business side, besides Richard Branson, the CEOs of Deutsche Bank, Siemens, ABB, Uber,
JP Morgan Chase and Softbank cancelled. Bloomberg, CNN, Financial Times and New York Times withdrew their media sponsorship.
When was the last time, business titans rebuked a wealthy autocrat?
These are folks who didn't even raise the issue of tens of thousands of Yemenis being slaughtered by Saudi bombs every day. Why would they let go of an opportunity to make more billions just because a journalist was killed in a diplomatic mission.
It makes sense only if one of their friends leaned on them and promised future business opportunities if they embarrass MBS further and damage him economically.
There is only one Saudi in the world who can do that and that is Al-Waleed bin Talal.
The man whom
MBS imprisoned, tortured, humiliated for 83 days and extorted billions from. The
largest individual shareholder of the Citigroup and second largest voting shareholder of the 20th Century Fox.
Besides being worth $30 billion, he is close friends with Rupert Murdoch, everybody on Wall Street and all the CEOs listed above.
Why Would Qatar and Turkey (Erdogan) Do This?
In Qatar's case the stakes are obvious. The
costly embargo is still on and the invasion plans are simply on hold. Weakening and then removing MBS is a critical goal for Qatar.
In Turkey's case, this is a gift that keeps on giving.
Saudi Arabia had cooled its relations with Turkey after Erdogan's angry criticisms of Saudi-sponsored could d'etat that toppled Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi.
Now they are begging Erdogan not to release the murder evidence.
The New York Times, citing an unnamed Turkish official, reported that
Saudi Prince Khalid bin Faisal Al Saud, who secretly met with Erdogan
last week in Turkey, had “offered a package of inducements for Turkey to
drop the case — including financial aid and investments to help
Turkey’s struggling economy and to end a Saudi embargo on Qatar, a
Turkish ally.” Erdogan had “angrily rejected” them as a “political
bribe.”
It's likely that Prince Mohammed made some fresh offers to Erdogan, who is now clearly in the driver’s seat.
Ending the Qatar embargo was on the table. Can you believe that? And he rejected it as he wants more.
Wow!
Erdogan has also pushed Trump in a tight corner.
Sure, Trump is a cynical and shameless liar, but how do you handle the daily drip-drip information coming from the Turkish side. MBS is Kushner's buddy and Trump's main partner against Iran. If he goes, there goes Trump's entire Middle East policy.
And Erdogan says he has the goods to make it happen. And he shared them with every intelligence agency that mattered. So Trump cannot afford to attack Erdogan.
What does Erdogan wants from Trump?
A
much smaller Halkbank fine would be the first thing. If that happens, you'll know that my crazy contrarian theory makes sense.
Two, he would insist on Iran oil waivers.
Currently, eight countries have received them, there is still no word about Turkey. If that happens, well, you know what that means.
Moreover, in the Middle East, this would position Erdogan as the honest broker between Sunni and Shia. Once MBS is out of the way, Al-Sisi of Egypt would become a much lonelier figure and he is the only competition Erdogan has.
Erdogan deals with Iran on a daily basis and has no (real) problem with them. Every other Sunni country does. So that makes him the go to guy in the region. And that spells regional superpower.
Finally, that enables Erdogan to present himself as the guy who takes the moral ground, someone who, far from being an autocrat, fights such odious people.
Would This Be Enough to Get Rid of MBS
I don't know.
Saudi Arabia is doing a little better with $80 barrel price point but the war in Yemen is eating up all the additional revenue.
If the price goes higher,
fracking outlets will come back online so MBS does not have much room of maneuver.
The Aramco IPO is not happening and may never happen.
On the other hand, King Salman is not lucid and he might not be able to sign a decree to replace MBS with someone else.
Time will tell.
-------------------------
UPDATE:
This is from the BBC:
Do the senior princes temper this all-powerful figure by removing
just enough of his powers to appease the US Congress and other Western
bodies, some of which are now calling for an arms boycott?
Do they "dethrone" him altogether, giving him some titular promotion to a meaningless sinecure?
Or do they try to weather the storm, as they tried to do, unsuccessfully, after this story broke a month ago?
In fact, there are extremely serious discussions going on right now behind closed doors in Saudi royal circles.
The
gravity of the crisis facing the ruling al-Saud family can be gauged by
the sudden return to Riyadh on Tuesday of Prince Ahmed bin Abdelaziz,
the last surviving full brother of the 82-year old King Salman.
What is interesting is that Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, the last of the
Sudairi Seven was convinced that MBS was out to get him for having criticized the war in Yemen and he was living in London in self-imposed exile.
Some
view this as a challenge to MBS. And a power play for the throne.
MBS was one of the senior people who greeted him at the airport.
Clearly he is worried.
------------------------
UPDATE 2
Turkey's bombastic President Tayyip Erdogan came out with another accusation against MBS and brought Nato in.
In an
op-ed published in the Washington Post, he maintained that while King Salman was unaware of the plot to kill Jamal Khashoggi, the order was given
by the highest levels of Saudi government.
"We also know that those individuals came to carry out their orders:
Kill Khashoggi and leave. Finally, we know that the order to kill
Khashoggi came from the highest levels of the Saudi government."
If King Salman is out, this could only mean MBS.
And for good measure he added this:
"No one should dare to commit such acts on the soil of a Nato ally
again," he said. "If anyone chooses to ignore that warning, they will
face severe consequences."
That is clearly a hint to Trump, reminding him that what happened in Turkey should be seen in the larger context of Nato alliance.
According to the Washington Post, Egypt's President Al-Sisi and Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu lobbied the White House to protect MBS.
Curiously,
Washington Post's editorial board brought Nato in as well to support their argument that MBS should be removed.
Mohammed bin Salman’s advocates argue that holding him accountable would risk turmoil. There is a fundamental illogic to this. The crown prince has already done much to destabilize the region, by leading a military intervention in Yemen, launching a boycott of Qatar and kidnapping the Lebanese prime minister. If he is allowed by the United States to get away with murdering a journalist inside a diplomatic facility in a NATO country, what will he be emboldened to do next — and what license will other dictators take, both in the Middle East and elsewhere?
And the silence from the White House and the State Department is deafening.
The Shia Crescent, which assumes that Iran, Iraq and Syria are trying to encircle the Sunni Arabs, was the main reason why the Gulf countries tried to destabilize Al-Assad's regime and Saudis launched their murderous campaign in Yemen.
